According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weak in October. From October 7th to 27th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9725 yuan/ton to 9525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, and the price decreased by 2.81% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene experienced weak fluctuations, with major production enterprises lowering their listing prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream chemical fibers are purchased on demand, and the supply of goods is stable. Due to the weak industry mentality, the focus of market transactions has weakened. In the middle of the month, the raw material pure benzene oscillated and operated, with relatively stable cost support. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are mostly purchased on demand, with a general trading atmosphere and narrow market consolidation. In the latter half of the month, the raw material pure benzene was operating in a volatile manner, with stable cost support. Some units were shut down, but downstream demand was average and more purchases were made on demand, resulting in a narrow weakening of market prices.

On the cost side, the domestic pure benzene market was sorted and operated in October. As of October 27th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 7917.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.12% compared to the beginning of this month (8172.17 yuan/ton). In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, the domestic caprolactam market was weak in October, and the production of downstream caprolactam was mainly supported by cyclohexanone units. Caprolactam is one of the most important downstream products of cyclohexanone. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated slightly, and the cost side has not changed much yet, but it is still at a high level. Under cost pressure, some caprolactam companies have raised their prices. Downstream procurement on demand, with average terminal demand. As of October 27th, the benchmark price of caprolactam for Business Society is 13062.50 yuan/ton. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is operating in a volatile manner, with a relatively stable cost profile. Downstream purchases are made on demand, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate sideways.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of October 26, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was set at 8133 yuan/ton. Compared to October 19, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8533 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.69%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that after the end of the National Day holiday in October, the overall market situation of domestic butanone has started to decline weakly. Entering this week, the overall decline in the butanone market has not stopped, and the price trend continues to move towards the low end. On October 26th, the domestic market price of butanone referred to 7900-8300 yuan/ton, and some low prices in Shandong region have dropped to around 7700 yuan/ton. Within seven days, the price will be reduced by about 300-400 yuan/ton.

Factors influencing the decline of butanone market after the holiday:

In terms of demand: Currently, the overall performance of downstream demand for butanone is weak, and terminal procurement is cautious. It is difficult to effectively support the butanone market due to the constraints on the demand side. New orders for butanone on the market are limited, the inquiry atmosphere is cold, and the mentality on the market is empty.

In terms of supply: After the holiday, the overall shipment of butanone was poor, and the pressure on on-site supply increased. The bearish sentiment gradually rose, and the actual transaction volume was less than expected. The overall negotiation of the butanone market declined, and the market eased and declined.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market of Butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere of domestic butanone on the market is still weak, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. There has been no significant improvement in the demand side of downstream demand, and it has been heard that some downstream factories may have short-term parking and maintenance plans, providing support for butanone is also weak. Business Society butanone data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly be weak and adjust its operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the market analysis system of Business Society, in October, the hydrogen peroxide market oscillated and fell by over 40%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 2126 yuan/ton. On October 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.44%.

Negative pressure on the sharp decline in hydrogen peroxide market in October

After the National Day holiday and the Double Festival holiday, the stock market in the terminal printing and papermaking industry ended, and demand fell. In addition, the market acceptance of high priced hydrogen peroxide decreased, resulting in a significant drop in hydrogen peroxide prices. The mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region dropped to 1300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton. The domestic price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide has decreased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday.

In the middle of the year, the demand for stocking in the terminal printing and papermaking industry fell, and the price of hydrogen peroxide slowed down after experiencing a significant decline in the previous period. The mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region dropped to 1550 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton. The overall price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in China has dropped by about 50 yuan/ton.

At the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with prices dropping to 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 40% compared to the beginning of the month. Terminal demand continues to be weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to bottom out.

Analysts from Business Society Chemical believe that demand remains flat, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 20th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% compared to the beginning of the month price of 21500.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.61% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 20th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27833.33 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.60% compared to the beginning of the week price of 28000.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 7.74% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of chloroform and hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable, and the overall cost of raw materials stabilized. The market purchase and sales remained relatively stable, supporting the continued stable progress of domestic R22 market prices.

This week, the overall domestic price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable and the trend of raw material costs has stabilized. Previously, the rapid rise in refrigerant prices has to some extent suppressed terminal consumption. Some manufacturers have slightly lowered their factory prices to ensure shipment, leading to a slight decline in the price of domestic refrigerant R134a.

In terms of raw materials, the high price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is stabilizing, and the sustained high cost of raw materials will provide strong support for refrigerant prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society refrigerant analysts believe that the overall high cost of raw materials is stabilizing, the downstream demand for refrigerants is generally stable, and the market supply and demand are stable. In the short term, the domestic market prices of refrigerant R22 and R134a will continue to remain stable at the current level.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been experiencing weak fluctuations, and spot prices have been generally lowered. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of October 20th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14300 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.54% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has been fluctuating and stabilizing recently. The raw material pure benzene has seen a decline in the market this week, with loose cost support. At the same time, new caprolactam units have been put into production and laid out, and many production lines have resumed work recently, resulting in an increase in supply. Downstream demand is average, resulting in a bearish trend for caprolactam. Overall, there is insufficient support for the cost side of PA6.

On the supply side:

In mid October, the load of PA6 production enterprises was generally sideways, with an average operating rate of around 73% in China. The market supply is relatively flat compared to the previous period, with an increase in on-site supply, but inventory levels are still low, and there is still support from suppliers for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 66% and 81%, respectively. The current willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is not high, and their acceptance of high priced goods is not good, which has affected the circulation speed of some goods. Market trading is concentrated on low prices, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the PA6 market has declined. The price of caprolactam is weak and stable, and the overall cost support for PA6 is weak. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load and abundant supply. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading tends towards the low end. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be weak in the short term.