According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and declining since October. As of October 31, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.99% from 17942 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The weather in the main production areas of natural rubber continues to improve, and the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas is gradually increasing, resulting in a decline in natural rubber raw material prices. As of October 31st, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 baht/kg, a decrease of 11.54% from the price of 78.00 baht/kg at the end of September; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas in China is 17900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.76% from 18600 yuan/ton at the end of September.

Natural rubber inventory increased slightly at the end of the month, with a slightly bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of October 27, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 408200 tons, an increase of 5700 tons compared to the previous period and a slight decrease from 411800 tons at the end of September.

Since October, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of October 25th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply is increasing, and prices are falling; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, there is currently a significant cost disadvantage in the short term, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly experience range fluctuations in the near future.

In October 2024, the market trend of the upstream main raw material for adhesive short fiber dissolution slurry remained strong and stable, while the auxiliary material market continued to rise in price. The cost performance was good, and some sources of goods were tight and inventory was low. At the same time, downstream markets were concentrated in signing orders, and the flow of goods was stable. Market favorable factors dominated, and the market focus of the adhesive short fiber market shifted upward. The downstream cotton yarn market has a flat trading atmosphere, with prices rising narrowly with the raw material viscose staple fiber.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton or 1.32% from the beginning of the month, and an increase of 7.13% from the beginning of the year.

Cost side support remains firm and stable

The market price of the main raw material dissolution slurry on the upstream side remains firm and stable. As of the end of the month, the price of domestically produced dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of broad-leaved slurry on the outer side is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The prices of auxiliary materials in the market have both shown an upward trend. As of the end of the month, the average price of 32% liquid caustic soda in the domestic market was 917.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% compared to the beginning of the month; The average market price of 98% sulfuric acid is 331 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.16% compared to the beginning of the month. Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market has seen a narrow upward trend, while the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market and liquid alkali market have both shown an upward trend. The cost side support for the adhesive short fiber market has strengthened.

Low inventory level

Most of the adhesive short fiber market devices are operating stably, with high market supply and a daily operating rate of around 85.8% in the industry. Due to the increase in downstream demand, the overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market continues to decline, and some models in the market are experiencing tight shipments. The supply side still has positive support.

Demand side support is still limited

The trading atmosphere in the downstream cotton yarn market is flat, with prices rising narrowly. As of October 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% from the beginning of the month. Although the demand in the terminal market is still weak, the downstream vortex spinning market equipment continues to increase, and yarn mills are holding onto the demand for essential orders, resulting in an increase in demand for adhesive short fibers. However, the new round of orders in the market is still expected to last for about a month, with limited support from the demand side.

Future forecast

The upstream raw material market prices may continue to show a strong trend, while the on-site supply is tight. Downstream yarn factories are following up as needed, and the market has entered a new round of order delivery period. Many adhesive short fiber manufacturers are queuing up to ship, and coupled with the lack of significant improvement in the end market, it may be difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of adhesive short fiber will perform averagely in the later stage. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable prices in the short term, with limited price fluctuations, and prices are expected to be between 13700-13900 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market fell in October. On October 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15700 yuan/ton, and on October 29th, it was 15316.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.44%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market experienced a decline in October, with a light market trend. The price of raw material titanium concentrate continues to decline, and the price of sulfuric acid in domestic regions is fluctuating, with average cost support. The price of titanium dioxide was lowered in the first ten days. In the second half of the year, the overall market trend did not show substantial improvement, and there was significant pressure on the shipment of titanium dioxide. In addition, due to environmental inspections and other factors, some companies began to reduce or stop production. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15000-16100 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in September 2024 was 8310.02 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.62% and a month on month increase of 29.27%. From January to September 2024, China imported approximately 71500 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year increase of 27.19% compared to last year, with an increase of approximately 15300 tons in import volume. In September, the import of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide was 3718.82 tons, a month on month increase of 42.97%. The cumulative import of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide from January to September was 23400 tons. In September, the import of chlorinated titanium dioxide was 4591.20 tons, an increase of 19.95% compared to the previous month. The cumulative import of chlorinated titanium dioxide from January to September was 48100 tons.

According to customs data, China’s titanium dioxide exports in September 2024 were 146800 tons, a decrease of 8.67% compared to the previous month and an increase of 1.23% compared to the same period last year. From January to September, China’s cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.4397 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.76%, and the export volume increased by about 185100 tons. In September 2024, the export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide was 119700 tons, a decrease of 10.82% compared to the previous month. The cumulative export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide from January to September was 1177900 tons. In September 2024, the export of chlorinated titanium dioxide was 27000 tons, a month on month increase of 2.30%. The cumulative export of chlorinated titanium dioxide from January to September was 261700 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate continued to decline in October. At present, the spot prices in the market are relatively stagnant. Due to the impact of the central environmental protection team’s entry into Sichuan Province’s environmental protection inspection, the supply of titanium ore has decreased, and the quotes from beneficiation plants have remained firm. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market and are more cautious about titanium concentrate, with strong pressure on prices and cautious procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1500-1550 yuan/ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2100-2150 yuan/ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2250-2350 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to rise, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

According to customs data, China imported 267700 tons of titanium ore in September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.21% and a month on month decrease of 57.17%, with a monthly average price of $306.32 per ton; From January to September 2024, China imported approximately 3.5837 million tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 8.51%, with an increase of approximately 280900 tons in import volume.

In September 2024, China exported 5216.80 tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 738.71% and a month on month decrease of 17.40%; From January to September 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium ore was about 57700 tons, an increase of 193.52% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by about 38000 tons.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of titanium concentrate has declined this month, while the price of sulfuric acid has fluctuated, and the cost support is average. Downstream market demand remains weak, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and low buying sentiment. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price will be negotiated on a case by case basis.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in October. As of the end of October, the spot price of stainless steel was 12728.57 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from 12578.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and down 5.96% year-on-year.

Entering October, stainless steel prices experienced a wave of increase. On the trading day before the National Day holiday, the main force of stainless steel futures increased by 3.61% in a single day. Subsequently, during the National Day holiday, nickel futures rose and maintained a high level of volatility, which had a strong overall driving effect on the stainless steel spot market. After the holiday, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the reluctance to sell has increased the market’s upward momentum. Driven by the successive announcement of domestic economic policies and the increase in steel prices, the market price has continued to rise. But with the high-level pullback of the futures market and the end of the post holiday replenishment of finished materials, the market is under pressure.

According to the annual price comparison chart of stainless steel by Business Society in the past five years, most of the stainless steel prices fell in November.

Supply and demand side

On the raw material side, customs data shows that the import volume of nickel iron in September was 737400 tons, an increase of 41.22% compared to the previous month. The import volume of nickel iron has increased significantly, which has put pressure on the domestic nickel supply side and may limit the continued strength of nickel iron prices in the future market.

On the supply side, in September, the crude steel production of 43 stainless steel plants nationwide was 3.2888 million tons, a decrease of 2.09% month on month. The production schedule for October was 3.244 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.36%. The decrease in crude steel production in September and October was mainly reflected in the 200 and 400 series, with little overall fluctuation in the production of the 300 series.

On the demand side, the failure to fulfill the peak season demand in September as scheduled and the delayed demand are also important driving forces for the strengthening of the spot market in October. As the overall replenishment pace of the post holiday market gradually comes to an end, there is an expectation of a weakened digestion of finished material sources in the later stage. In addition, with the gradual decrease in temperature, some outdoor demand is limited, especially in northern regions where outdoor engineering construction is affected, and there is room for a weakening of demand in the stainless steel aftermarket.

Stainless steel inventory

As of the end of the month, the total inventory of stainless steel was 103.09 tons, an increase of 1.13% compared to the beginning of the month, with both cold and hot rolling inventories rising.

In summary, November has entered a seasonal period of pressure, and the decline in demand for finished materials may further limit the purchasing enthusiasm of production enterprises. It is expected that stainless steel prices will be mainly under pressure in November.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has shown an upward trend this week. On Monday, the price of styrene was 8770 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 8814 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.5%.

This week, the styrene market first fell and then rose, but overall the market trend is upward. This week, the styrene futures market performed well, with a continuous strengthening of the futures to cash basis, and monthly negotiations mainly focused on exchanges. The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has decreased, and the inventory of styrene in South China ports has also decreased. Combined with the decrease in styrene production rate this week, the styrene market has turned from a decline to an increase. As of now, the spot price of styrene in Shandong region is around 8620-8850 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material pure benzene, pure benzene fluctuated this week. At present, the storage of pure benzene in the port continues to accumulate, and crude oil has fallen but risen in the external market. Market confidence is still acceptable. As of now, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market is around 7320-7350 yuan/ton. It is expected that pure benzene will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Downstream of styrene, the comprehensive support on the cost side of ABS is poor, and the load of ABS polymerization plant is running steadily, resulting in a slight digestion of high finished product inventory. The situation of weak and rigid demand on the demand side has returned, and market trading is weak. The mismatch between supply and demand within the venue has not been effectively improved. Affected by multiple bearish factors, it is expected that the ABS market will mainly operate weakly in the short term in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the styrene data analyst from Shengyi Society, pure benzene is currently operating in a volatile manner, with a decrease in operating rates and inventory, and there is currently no pressure. There are many market inquiries, and actual orders are cautious. It is expected that the styrene market will slightly strengthen and consolidate in the short term.