From November 3 to November 10, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China remained stable for the time being, with prices remaining unchanged at 82500 yuan/ton over the weekend.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market has been relatively stable.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony remained stable, with a price of $11550/ton as of November 10th. It remained stable during the cycle and the market atmosphere was somewhat wait-and-see, with limited impact on market sentiment.

The antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable for 6 consecutive weeks, with limited changes in market supply and demand, and overall weak market atmosphere. In terms of supply, the mining end is still in a tight supply situation, and manufacturers still have a reluctance to sell. In terms of demand, the recent performance of the antimony oxide market has slightly improved, but the overall impact on the market is still limited. Overall, the antimony ingot market is still weak in both supply and demand. Without clear news, the spot market will remain temporarily stable in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Overseas sales performance was average, and market expectations remained weak. Antimony oxide enterprises maintained a demand for antimony ingots, and demand support remained.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1110 points on November 12, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.83% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.87% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were three commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 45th week of 2023 (11.6-11.10) commodity price rise and fall list, with tin (1.49%), zinc (0.65%), and magnesium (0.16%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 16 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being dysprosium oxide (-2.47%), dysprosium iron alloy (-1.92%), and praseodymium oxide (-1.90%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.79%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on November 6th was 12887 yuan/ton, and on November 10th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12887 yuan/ton. Caprolactam prices remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The caprolactam market has remained stable this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Some enterprises are undergoing parking and maintenance, resulting in a decrease in local market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable. As of November 10th, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has settled at 13350 yuan/ton this week. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On November 6th, the price of pure benzene was 7903 yuan/ton, and on November 10th, the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% compared to last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was at 7750 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions decreased by 300 yuan/ton simultaneously).

Downstream PA6 prices fell this week. As of November 10th, the reference average price of domestic PA6 is 14350 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam analysts believe that the market for caprolactam has been weakening recently. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, and cost support is insufficient. The market supply and demand game holds a bearish attitude in the industry. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be weak in the short term, and the consolidation operation will be carried out.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7440.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81%. The current price has decreased by 0.66% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 18.14% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a slight upward trend this week. Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market has been on the rise, with reasonable cost support. Downstream procurement remains in high demand, and manufacturers ship according to orders. The market has slightly increased. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7700 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and increased: the prices of salt lake and Zangge potassium chloride have temporarily stabilized. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. In the short term, the import price of domestic potassium chloride may slightly increase.

Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market has been on the rise. Currently, the price of imported 62% white potassium is mostly between 2930-2980 yuan/ton, and downstream purchases are still in demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of November 8, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7700 yuan/ton. Compared with November 5, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that as we enter this week (11.5-11.8), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole has slightly declined, with a calm trading atmosphere on the n-propanol market. Downstream, we need to continue to focus on just demand procurement. In the Shandong region, the price of n-propanol in Shandong factories has been slightly reduced by 100 yuan/ton, and some n-propanol suppliers have followed the footsteps of large factories to lower the shipping price of n-propanol, with a decrease of about 150-100 yuan/ton. As of November 8th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is based on around 7000-7800 yuan/ton. The normal operation of n-propanol units in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall supply and demand information of the domestic n-propanol market is relatively calm, and the transmission of supply and demand is slightly slow. The support provided by the demand side to the market is average. The business company’s n-propanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand information.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market decreased slightly this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 13075.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12950.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.96%. The weekend price fell by 27.14% year-on-year.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the 1,4-butanediol market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 10157.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10014.29 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.41%, and a year-on-year decrease of 27.17% over the weekend. The market situation of maleic anhydride has significantly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7470.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7032.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.86%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.72% at the end of the week. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have significantly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has slightly decreased this week. The price of spandex decreased from 34250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 33750.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.46%, and the weekend price decreased by 11.18% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers have been less proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In mid November, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream 1,4-butanediol and maleic anhydride markets have significantly declined, with insufficient cost support. Downstream spandex market slightly declined, and downstream demand weakened. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.