1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 24th, the spot nickel quotation was 130500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.28% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 35.99%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen 10 times and risen 1 time in the past 12 weeks. Recently, nickel prices have continued to decline.

Nickel industry chain

On a macro level, the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve have been released, indicating that restrictive interest rates will be maintained and caution will be exercised in the future. There is still a possibility of further interest rate hikes, and there is no indication of a rate cut. The US dollar has stopped falling and rebounded.

On the supply side, although some enterprises have stopped production for maintenance, the overall situation of oversupply has not been effectively alleviated. This has put tremendous pressure on nickel prices and has had a negative impact on the operating conditions of nickel production enterprises.

In terms of demand: With the increase in stainless steel production and the expansion of the new energy battery market, the demand for nickel has increased. Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined nickel in China in October 2023 was 6441.889 tons, an increase of 898.92 tons month on month or 16.22%; A year-on-year decrease of 5510.618 tons, a decrease of 46.1%. From January to October 2023, the total import volume of refined nickel in China was 76132.126 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51474.328 tons, a decrease of 40.34%.

In summary, in the situation of surplus supply on the fundamental side and relatively weak demand, cost side nickel production enterprises are facing losses, and oversupply has become the main reason for the current weakening of nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will remain weak and difficult to improve in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride prices have fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 23, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% from the 11450 yuan/ton price of aluminum fluoride on November 16 last week. Cost support has weakened, aluminum fluoride enterprises are resuming work and demand is weak. This week, aluminum fluoride prices have fluctuated and fallen.

Reduced cost support

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 23, the price of fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the price of fluorite on November 7, which was 3700 yuan/ton. As of November 23, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11116.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to November 7′s price of 11183.33 yuan/ton. The construction of fluorite mines is poor, downstream demand is sluggish, the fluorite market is stagnant, and fluorite prices are weak and temporarily stable. Downstream refrigerant manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement of hydrofluoric acid is poor. In addition, hydrofluoric acid exports are relatively weak, resulting in a slight decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices in the later stage. The price of raw materials has decreased, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased, and the cost support for aluminum fluoride has weakened.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased, resulting in a decrease in the cost of fluoride aluminum; Yunnan has limited electricity, resulting in a decrease in electrolytic aluminum production and a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride; The resumption of operations by aluminum fluoride enterprises has led to an increase in aluminum fluoride supply, and the willingness of aluminum fluoride manufacturers to increase prices has weakened. Overall, the increase in supply and weak demand for aluminum fluoride, coupled with a decrease in costs, are expected to lead to a volatile decline in aluminum fluoride prices in the future.

Recently (11.13-11.22), the acrylonitrile market continued to rise slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 22, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10162 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26% from 9937 yuan/ton on November 13. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile in the market is between 10000 to 10300 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly and the cost support for acrylonitrile weakened slightly; The main downstream ABS is operating steadily; The construction of acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and there is basically no pressure on the supply and demand side. The acrylonitrile market just needs inquiry support, and prices have risen.

Recently (11.13-11.22), the overall construction of domestic acrylonitrile units has slightly declined.

Recently (11.13-11.22), the raw material propylene market has experienced a slight decline due to fluctuations, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 22, the domestic propylene price was 7058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.01% from 7203 yuan/ton on November 13.

It is understood that as of early November, the downstream ABS construction has remained around 80%, which requires support for acrylonitrile; Recently, the domestic and foreign trade orders for acrylic yarn have been lackluster, and market trading has continued to be sluggish. There has been a varying degree of increase in inventory in acrylic factories, which only requires support for acrylic; The restart of the nitrile rubber Nandi plant and the temporary shutdown of the Ningbo Shunze nitrile plant have resulted in a slight decrease in demand for acrylonitrile; The construction of polyacrylamide and other materials has been basically stable. Overall, there is still support for the demand for acrylonitrile, but as the price of acrylonitrile further increases, downstream inquiries are gradually on the sidelines.

Future Market Forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is stable and slightly declining; The demand side is mainly in need of support. Recently, the international crude oil price has fluctuated at a low level, and the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and decreased. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

This week (11.13-11.21), the dichloromethane market continued to decline weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 21, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from last Monday’s 2490 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol is weak and low, while the price of liquid chlorine remains high, and the cost of dichloromethane still has support; Downstream and terminal customers should be cautious in purchasing goods. Enterprises in Shandong region generally have low inventory pressure when shipping, while enterprises in East China and other regions have low inventory pressure when shipping dichloromethane. Some domestic enterprises have lowered the factory price of dichloromethane, and as of November 21, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2350-2500 yuan/ton.

This week (11.13-11.21), domestic methane chloride production slightly increased to around 6.5%.

This week (11.13-11.21), the raw material methanol slightly decreased, the price of liquid chlorine remained high, and the cost of dichloromethane still has support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 21, the spot price of methanol was 2395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.68% from last Monday’s 2460 yuan/ton. As of November 21st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has been sorted out around 600 yuan/ton.

The domestic production of methane chloride is at a low level of around 6.5%. With the recent decline in the factory price of dichloromethane, the inventory pressure of dichloromethane in Shandong Province has greatly decreased. However, the terminal is still cautious in purchasing goods, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is still weak. Some enterprises in East China have not significantly improved their shipment situation, and the inventory pressure of enterprises has increased.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of Business Society, the demand for dichloromethane is weak, and the supply side has slightly increased compared to the previous period, which has a negative impact on the dichloromethane market. However, the rising raw material prices have cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 10 to November 17, 2023, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell first and then rose. Last week, it was at 7700 yuan/ton, and this week it was 7683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures plummeted on November 16th. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $72.90 per barrel, a decrease of $3.76 or 4.9%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 77.42 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 3.76 US dollars or 4.6%. The US crude oil inventory has significantly increased, and more importantly, weak economic data has exacerbated concerns about future demand. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the current logic of crude oil trading is still a supply-demand game, and the pressure of tight supply has eased as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not shown a worsening trend of expansion. At present, market attention is more focused on various economic data indicators, which will become a barometer of demand prospects. Recently, multiple data releases have shown that economic data from important regions in the West and Asia are biased towards weakness, which will further exacerbate bearish demand sentiment in the future. In the short term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, but the market still needs to pay attention to OPEC policy trends, which will limit the downward space of oil prices.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene and the listed price of Sinopec pure benzene will continue to be 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7653 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On November 13th, the price of pure benzene was 7675 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 17th), the price of pure benzene was 7750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64% compared to last week and an increase of 11.25% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market rose first and then fell this week. The overall strength of the styrene market was boosted by the positive news, and the pure benzene market rose slightly next week. Downstream inquiries were relatively positive, and market trading was good. The hydrogenation benzene market has been on the rise this week, with overall market prices slightly increasing by 150-200 yuan/ton.

This week, the pure benzene market overall rose, with Sinopec’s listed price continuing to reach 7750 yuan/ton. The hydrogenation benzene market has slightly increased, with a current price of 7800 to 7850 yuan/ton in East China, and an increase of 150 to 200 yuan/ton within the week. In terms of supply and demand, as the hydrogenation benzene enterprises undergoing preliminary maintenance continue to operate, the overall operating rate of hydrogenation benzene has increased, and the overall supply is relatively loose. In terms of demand, downstream production has been suspended and resumed in parallel, and the overall demand has not shown significant performance, and there is still a shortage of demand. Overall, the current overall strength of the industrial chain has boosted the prices of most commodities. However, with the recent increase in supply of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene, the market is slightly under pressure. Over the weekend, crude oil weakened again, which has a certain impact on market sentiment. In the future, market bearishness is expected to emerge, and the pure benzene industrial chain is expected to be under pressure in the future, with the market operating steadily and weakly.