In November, the butadiene styrene rubber market was weak and fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 11841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.89% from 12583 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In November, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber was loose, with downstream tire production increasing in the early stage and styrene butadiene rubber receiving demand support. In the later stage, downstream inquiries were wait-and-see, and market transactions were flat; At the end of the month, the high price of raw material butadiene decreased, and the overall price of styrene declined. The cost support for butadiene styrene rubber gradually weakened, and the overall price of butadiene styrene rubber declined.

In November, the supply of butadiene styrene rubber was mainly loose.

In October, the price of butadiene, a raw material for styrene butadiene rubber, was strong in the early stage and fell at the end of the month. The price of styrene was weak and fell, and the cost support for styrene butadiene rubber gradually weakened.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of butadiene was 9125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 9516 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of November 30th, the price of styrene was 8416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.17% from 8783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In October, the natural rubber market first rose and then fell, providing slightly stronger support for styrene butadiene rubber in the early stage. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price was 12850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the beginning of the month’s 12860 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 13160 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Tire production in November slightly increased compared to October, providing some essential support for rubber. However, as tires enter the off-season at the end of the year, tire factory production expectations are expected to decrease, and support for rubber may weaken in the future. It is understood that as of late November 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 640%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that downstream production is generally stable, but expectations are expected to decrease in the later stage. The supply of butadiene styrene rubber has slightly declined, and the price of raw material butadiene styrene has declined. It is expected that the butadiene styrene rubber market will remain weak in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8228 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price on November 30th was 8100 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation fell by 1.56%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9112 yuan/ton on November 2nd, and the average price on November 30th was 9137 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8650 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price on November 30th was 8550 yuan/ton, with a 1.16% decrease in quotation during this period.

In November, the overall performance of polyethylene showed a weak trend. LDPE performed relatively well in resistance to decline, while LLDPE and HDPE saw a narrow decline adjustment. At the beginning of the month, companies showed a slight upward trend in their prices, but there was limited upward potential. The international oil price trend within the month was volatile and weak, suppressing the polyethylene market. The maintenance equipment of petrochemical enterprises has decreased compared to the previous period, and the supply of polyethylene is still sufficient. Downstream agricultural film and pipe demand has weakened, market demand has weakened, with rigid demand as the main focus and limited new orders; Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price.

On November 30th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7890 yuan, and the closing price was 7968 yuan, up 86 yuan. The highest price was 7979 yuan, and the lowest was 7869 yuan, up 1.09%. In November, polyethylene futures fluctuated in the first half of the month, with a significant decline in the second half and a slight increase towards the end of the month.

On November 29th, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, supporting polyethylene on the cost side. The operating rate of agricultural film enterprises is relatively low, downstream procurement enthusiasm is reduced, demand side support is insufficient, polyethylene fundamentals are poor, and there is a lack of effective upward momentum. It is expected that they will mainly fluctuate weakly.

441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

In November, metal silicon first fell and then stabilized. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 29, 2023, the reference price for domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 25.04% from the same period last year. At the beginning of the month, there was news of the shutdown of Southwest Power Co., Ltd., but the cancelled warehouse receipts have gradually flowed into the spot warehouse and have not yet been released. Overall, the supply has remained stable and the flow of goods is relatively abundant. Coupled with the decline in polycrystalline silicon prices, it has seriously pressured the price of metal silicon. Under the resonance of supply and demand, metal silicon is under pressure. In the mid to late period, the price of silicon metal tends to stabilize, with a slight decrease in prices in Xinjiang. In the context of the electricity price trend during the dry season in the southwest region, manufacturers have a clear willingness to raise prices, and the upstream and downstream are deadlocked in a game, resulting in stable prices.

Supply side

The main production areas in Southwest China have gradually entered the flat and dry seasons. Based on the current scale of production stoppage, the production reduction in Southwest China in November did not exceed expectations. In the later stage, there is still room for further production reduction, and it is expected that the production will decrease month on month. The slow release of new production capacity from major factories in the northwest, coupled with warehouse receipt cancellations, is expected to result in an overall oversupply in the market in December.

Cost side

Electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have both increased in November, and it is expected that there will still be some room for increase in December, with the cost bottom further moving upwards. The ongoing border conflict in Myanmar has led to an increase in the price of wood chips, but the slowdown in procurement due to the reduction in construction in the southwest has partially offset the impact. Xinjiang’s silicon coal saw a slight increase due to the recent strong dual focus and contraction in mining supervision supply, resulting in a rise in prices at the end of the month.

Demand side

In November, the price of polycrystalline silicon further declined, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 68000 to 70000 yuan/ton. The new production capacity of polycrystalline silicon is still being continuously invested, but market transactions are limited, and there is a demand for stock of metallic silicon, but the price is severely suppressed.

The organic silicon DMC market is weakly declining, and on November 29th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 14320 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is limited, and the factory’s order volume is average. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on site, and some downstream factories have started operating at a reduced rate, indicating a further narrowing trend in demand for metallic silicon.

The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 50.1% month on month, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 51.6% month on month. The procurement of recycled aluminum alloy raw materials has been hindered, and downstream orders have weakened, leading to a decrease in production to maintain essential procurement.

According to customs data, industrial silicon exports in October amounted to 43600 tons, a decrease of 15.01% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 12.95%. There was a significant decrease in exports compared to September, mainly due to weak overseas demand.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current production reduction in Southwest China has not exceeded expectations, and the price of metallic silicon has not fluctuated significantly for more than half a month. With no significant changes in fundamentals, it is difficult for silicon prices to break through. If the cost of Southwest China rises in December and some raw material inventory is consumed, silicon prices are expected to rebound. Continuous attention should be paid to the production reduction in Southwest China and changes in downstream demand. It is expected that the price of metallic silicon will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market was downward in November. On November 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 17300 yuan/ton/ton, and on November 28th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16650 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.76%.

2、 Market analysis

The titanium dioxide market was weak and downward in November. Overall, the international foreign trade order situation is average, while the domestic terminal market is weak. In the first half of the year, there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the titanium dioxide market, with major manufacturers mostly observing the pricing policies of leading companies. Currently, stability is the main focus in various markets. In mid month, the Shanghai International Coatings Exhibition kicked off, and the order situation improved, with companies scheduling delivery. In the latter half of the year, due to power and gas restrictions, downstream market operations declined, demand was weak, and new orders in the market were limited. The price adjustment of leading manufacturers has been reduced by thousands of yuan, and some manufacturers have followed up with price reductions. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in October 2023 was 7802.13 tons, a month on month increase of 15.13% and a year-on-year increase of 138.77%; From January to October 2023, the cumulative import of titanium dioxide from China was about 64000 tons, a decrease of 42.05% compared to the same period last year, and the import volume decreased by about 46500 tons.

In October 2023, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 118800 tons, a decrease of 18.02% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 19.95%; From January to October 2023, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.3734 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.19%, and the export volume increased by about 20.15 million tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region fluctuated slightly in November. With the decrease in raw ore supply and the shutdown of large factories. Low end market prices have slightly increased. The downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a general market situation, with poor market demand. They are more cautious in purchasing and observe more. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38-42 titanium concentrate is around 1460-1480 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and the tax-free quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly strong, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In October 2023, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 118800 tons, a decrease of 18.02% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 19.95%; From January to October 2023, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.3734 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.19%, and the export volume increased by about 20.15 million tons.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices increased in November. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average domestic sulfuric acid price on November 1st was 258 yuan/ton, and on November 28th it was 302 yuan/ton. The monthly price has increased by 17.06%. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has stabilized at a high level, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and rise.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Business Society believes that the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has fluctuated slightly this month, and the sulfuric acid market price has risen. The cost support for titanium dioxide is still acceptable. However, the downstream market is weak, and the market trading situation is light. Transactions are cautious and cautious, and titanium dioxide companies are under greater pressure to ship. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be weak in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced a significant decline in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1150 yuan/ton. On November 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 890 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 22.61%.

Negative sentiment suppresses the significant decline in hydrogen peroxide market in November

At the beginning of the month, the stocking market in the terminal paper and printing industries ended, and the order volume of hydrogen peroxide decreased, resulting in average market transactions. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have lowered their factory prices one after another, resulting in a significant drop in hydrogen peroxide prices. The market average price has dropped to 950 yuan/ton, with a daily drop of 200-300 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 18%.

In the middle of the month, terminal demand has not improved, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline, with a slowdown compared to the previous period. The average market price has dropped to 900 yuan/ton, indicating a weak trend in the market. As the end of the month approaches, the hydrogen peroxide market is basically stable, with mainstream market quotes of 890-900 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst at Business Society, believes that terminal demand is weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline weakly. Due to the current low level of hydrogen peroxide market, entering December, the market may stop falling and rebound.