According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market was weak in early December, with prices of various wire drawing brands generally falling. As of December 8th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7571.43 yuan/ton, with a rise or fall of -1.03% compared to the initial average price level.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the recent news of OPEC reduction in international crude oil production has settled, and prices have rebounded from a low level. However, due to weak demand and high inventory levels, the spot price of propylene has experienced a significant decline. In terms of PDH, prices have rebounded due to the recovery of natural gas and propane transportation capacity. The methanol market is relatively stable. Upstream raw materials fluctuate, and overall support for PP is weak.

The raw materials flow in different directions is inconsistent, and the cost side has average support for PP. In terms of industry load, the average load of the polypropylene industry in early December was around 73%, with limited changes compared to the end of November. The overall supply of goods is abundant, and it is expected that production will steadily decline in the future, but the magnitude is not significant, and the pressure on on-site supply is not prominent. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production is maintained at around 43%, and the production rate of film materials and injection molding enterprises is maintained at over 60%. The overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with poor trading activity on the exchange, resulting in an overall decline in the wire drawing market.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also declined. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7575 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.49% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 5.31% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have maintained a stable load, with an operating rate of over 39%. The digestion speed of end products is relatively strong due to frequent outbreaks of influenza, and the demand for fiber materials in the market is increasing narrowly, but the support for non-woven fabric prices is not significant. It is expected that the market for fiber materials will continue in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the domestic supply and demand situation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market saw a narrow decline in early December. As of December 8th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8162.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.91%, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.64%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has not increased significantly, and the impact of seasonal climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not yet significant. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. It is expected that the melt blown material market will maintain a narrow consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market weakened in early December. Upstream raw materials have mixed trends, with weak support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises maintain their initial level of production, and their procurement operations tend towards a small amount of rigid demand. The PP device load is generally stable, with a slight expected decline in the future. At present, the supply and demand of PP are weak, and the market momentum is low. It is expected that the PP market will maintain a narrow and weak operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 7th, the average quoted price of 85% industrial grade formic acid enterprises in China was 3325.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 10.83% compared to the same period last year.

Since December, there has been no significant fluctuation in the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole, and enterprise quotations have remained stable in the range of 3100-3500 yuan/ton. In recent times, the upstream sulfuric acid market prices have fallen first and then stabilized, while the upstream methanol market has narrowed and stabilized. The cost support is average, and downstream inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand. The market trading performance is stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on December 7th, industrial grade 90% formic acid enterprises quoted around 3700-4000 yuan/ton, and on December 7th, industrial grade 94% formic acid enterprises quoted around 4200-4500 yuan/ton.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is not significant, and enterprise quotations are mainly stable. Market transactions are in high demand, and it is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have continued to decline recently. On December 5th, the rare earth index was 487 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 51.64% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 79.70% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have all declined. As of the 6th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 580000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.11%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 472500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.07%; The price of neodymium oxide is 482500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 1.53%; The price of neodymium metal was 612500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.61%; The price of praseodymium metal is 600000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 3.23%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 485000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.02%.

The domestic light rare earth market has continued to decline, with recent transactions mainly in demand. Due to a small number of new orders and low purchasing willingness of enterprises, the overall decline in the market is difficult to change. Recently, some companies have reduced production and ensured prices, while downstream purchases are on demand. Metal spot transactions are under pressure, and downstream magnetic material companies have a low willingness to purchase, mainly relying on inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, leading to a continuous decline in rare earth market prices. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, and the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is still inverted. The transaction situation is poor, and the decrease in procurement has led to a continuous decline in the domestic light rare earth market prices.

According to statistics, in October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 989000 and 956000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 5.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.2% and 33.5%, respectively. From January to October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 7.352 million and 7.28 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China imported a total of 145000 tons of rare earths from January to October 2023, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%. The significant increase in imported rare earth raw materials has impacted the domestic rare earth market, causing a decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 28th to December 5th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16100 yuan/ton to 15816 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.76% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.07%. The domestic aggregated MDI market prices have fallen, with a slow decline and a poor overall trading atmosphere, with some shipments showing strong willingness. But as the settlement of supplier prices at the end of the month exceeded expectations, a cautious atmosphere increased, with slow follow-up being the main focus.

On the supply side, Kesichuang will undergo maintenance on November 16th, lasting for about a month. Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd.’s MDI Phase I 400000 ton/year unit will start maintenance on November 15th, and the Phase II 800000 ton/year unit will start shutdown maintenance on December 3rd, with each unit undergoing maintenance for about 50 days. Both Chongqing BASF and Shanghai Lianheng have maintenance plans, and the supply side is gradually shrinking. The overall market support still exists. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has continued to decline in the East China market. The prices of main operating units have once again been lowered, and news of unplanned shutdown of some downstream units has spread. The overall downstream demand continues to decrease, and the atmosphere of spot buying by customers is insufficient, with a focus on buying on dips. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6867.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: There is a strong bearish atmosphere in the aniline market, with lower willingness to reserve downstream positions and a focus on on-demand procurement. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 11475.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI deviates from the influence of null factors.

On the demand side, inventory is at a low level, but the short-term improvement in consumption capacity is expected to be limited. Participants remain in a market driven state, coupled with some aggregated MDI imported goods offering low prices and buying at low prices. The ability to follow up on higher prices is limited. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the current supply and demand are weak and horizontal. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market may continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell first and then rose this week (11.27-12.4). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 201010 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 200460 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.27%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In the early stage, the tin market was affected by a sufficient supply of imported goods, and prices continued to decline. As prices declined, downstream entry was active, and market transactions were good. The decline in inventory boosted tin prices, which rose on Friday night and continued to rise on Monday morning. Shanghai tin closed up 1.83%. In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of smelters is relatively stable. However, with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively sufficient, and inventory is relatively high. In terms of demand, there has been little change in terminal consumption recently, and the overall trend is still weak. However, with the recent decline in tin prices, downstream market entry enthusiasm has increased, actively replenishing inventory, and purchasing intentions are still acceptable. Overall, the tin ingot market has recently seen loose supply and weak demand, and it is expected to remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term. However, the spot market has recently seen good transactions, and the downward space for tin prices is also limited.

On December 3rd, the non-ferrous index was at 1088 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.26% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.24% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 48th week of 2023 (11.27-12.1), there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were silver (5.59%), nickel (5.21%), and gold (2.13%). There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decline, and 1 product with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were cobalt (-8.48%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-4.55%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-3.32%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.38%.