On December 28, 2023, the cash and tax prices of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non acid washed, simple packaging) from various major production areas in China remained stable, with an overall range of 20300 to 20600 yuan/ton. Negotiations on actual orders were the main focus.

The specific price ranges for each region are as follows:

Factory tax inclusive spot exchange in Fugu area is 20300-20400 yuan/ton; Current exchange rate in Taiyuan area is 20400-20500 yuan/ton; Current exchange rate in Wenxi area is 20500-20600 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Ningxia is 20300-20400 yuan/ton.

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots in accordance with the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washing, no wooden pallets, and non payment acceptance price, actual order negotiation is the main focus.

Overview of the trend of metallic magnesium in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average domestic market price on the 28th was 20633.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% compared to the average market price of 20900 yuan/ton in early December (12.1); Compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), the average market price was 21700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.92%.

In December, the magnesium ingot market continued its stalemate since mid November, maintaining a weak and stable trend. Mainstream factories offered a stable price of 20500 yuan/ton including tax in spot exchange. In the stalemate game between supply and demand, on the one hand, the market transaction activity was not high at that time, and the atmosphere of cautious observation was highlighted. The weather conditions in the main production areas caused difficulties in shipping and transportation, and the overseas market was lukewarm. On the other hand, the price of magnesium ingots has approached the cost line, and the market price is in a dilemma of rising and falling.

In terms of supply and demand

The manufacturers that stopped production on the supply side have steadily resumed production, and the overall market output has shown a slight upward trend. The overall supply is relatively sufficient. Mainstream factories still have a strong willingness to stabilize prices, coupled with individual manufacturers having inverted costs, resulting in a weaker willingness to ship at low prices. The downstream demand side continues to be sluggish, coupled with fluctuations in export exchange rates and tightening of year-end funding chains, some factories have started to adjust prices slightly according to market trends. At the end of the month, due to the impact of the international situation, the freight rates for European shipping increased significantly, and export orders were further reduced, resulting in a bearish price drop of 50-100 yuan/ton.

Ferrosilicon experienced a cumulative decline of 1% in December

In December, with the decline of silicon iron futures and the pressure of steel bidding, the spot market continued to be weak. On December 28th, the price of silicon iron in Ningxia was between 6550-6700 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6661 yuan/ton. Currently, profits of ferrosilicon enterprises are being squeezed, production enthusiasm is average, and downstream demand is difficult to release. The spot operation of ferrosilicon still maintains a conservative attitude.

In December, Lancan started its fifth round of price reduction, with mainstream downstream calcium carbide enterprises raising and lowering Lancan’s medium and small materials by 60-90 yuan/ton. Although the high transaction volume of by-product tar has increased, the losses of Lancan plants are still severe. As of December 27th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 1080-1210 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 680-750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 1100-1220 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 740-750 yuan/ton. Magnesium ingot factories have been affected by the decline of blue charcoal, resulting in increased production costs and little willingness to lower prices.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the magnesium ingot market will operate weakly and steadily in December, and the market will still be in the game stage. The situation of oversupply in the market is difficult to improve. With no favorable factors in the market, prices will fluctuate narrowly within the range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 756 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 826 yuan/ton on December 27th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 9.25% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated and increased this month. In the first half of December, the domestic ammonium sulfate market saw a slight pullback after an increase in prices. The manufacturer mainly supports the price, while downstream and some distributors make up for the price. International demand remains sluggish, and there is no positive trend on the demand side. In the second half of December, the bidding price of domestic ammonium sulfate increased. Foreign orders have been followed up in small quantities, downstream demand is still acceptable, and market trading is good. Dealers are actively restocking and have a resistance towards high prices. As of December 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 740 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 850-880 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from October 2, 2023 to December 18, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle fluctuates. There was a significant increase in December, with the largest increase being 3.86% in the week ending December 18th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst from Business Society believes that the recent market trend of ammonium sulfate is relatively strong. At present, there is an increase in market inquiries and an improvement in demand. Downstream and distributors are actively acquiring goods. It is expected that the price trend of ammonium sulfate will be dominant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot market price of gold on December 26, 2023 was 480.64 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.30% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (December 1), which was 474.48 yuan/gram.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of silver in the market on December 25, 2023 was 6060 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.83% compared to the average price of 6173 yuan/kg in the silver market at the beginning of this month (December 1).

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after reaching a new decade high in the early stage. Under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes we anticipated earlier, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices. It is reported that in the third quarter of 2023, central banks and other institutions of various countries increased their holdings of gold by 337.1 tons, an increase of 93% compared to the previous quarter.

The recent release of US GDP and inflation data in the third quarter has strengthened the possibility of aggressive interest rate cuts when the cooling level is deeper than expected. The Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 has increased, which is beneficial for precious metal prices. In the short term, it is expected that precious metals will operate stronger.

441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained strong and upward. As of December 25th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15620 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36% compared to the previous week. In recent times, silicon metal production has decreased and silicon factories have started to rise strongly. Driven by the demand for essential purchases, spot prices have overall risen.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 25th is as follows:

The price range for # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15600-15700 yuan/ton, with an average of 15650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 16100-16300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16200 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of December 21st, the number of furnaces opened this week was 356, a decrease of 8 compared to last week, a decrease of 4 in Yunnan, and a decrease of 3 in Sichuan. The operating rate in the southwest region continues to decline, and silicon factories are reducing production and reluctant to sell, leading to a high sentiment of price support. Due to weather and environmental factors, many areas in the northern region have experienced production restrictions.

In terms of inventory:

As of December 22, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 363000 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 125000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. The social delivery warehouse was 238000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which decreased by 7000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market remained stable, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55000-65000 yuan/ton. The devices affected by the accident in the early stage have now resumed operation, and the newly added production capacity has been gradually released, achieving mass production and a significant increase in domestic supply. Downstream installation demand is decreasing, and the demand increment in the silicon material market is insufficient in the near future. Prices may still seek downward space in the upstream and downstream game.

The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 13920 yuan/ton, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has slightly decreased during the week, but the market situation is improving. Aluminum alloy factories are actively purchasing, and inquiries and orders are increasing.

Future Market Forecast

This week, silicon factories continue to reduce production, with seasonal cuts in production in the southwest. Xinjiang silicon factories have reduced production due to environmental protection, leading to increased uncertainty in the supply side. At the same time, downstream demand remains for essential procurement, and it is expected that silicon prices will slightly increase in the short term.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On December 22nd, the average sulfur price in East China was 1090.00 yuan/ton, a 1.51% decrease from the previous working day’s price of 1106.67 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The sulfur market in East China is experiencing a downward trend, with sulfur refinery units operating normally and market supply stable. The demand for terminal winter storage is slowing down, and downstream procurement is stabilizing. Market trading is mainly based on demand, while refineries are actively shipping. Some companies have poor shipments, and their prices have been lowered based on their own inventory situation.

Market forecast: The supply side follows the market, downstream demand remains stable, and the market lacks effective positive support. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and fluctuate narrowly.