Price trend
According to the monitoring of Business Society, the average price of PS in 2023 was 9766 yuan/ton. At the end of 2023, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.05%.
quotations analysis
Phase 1
Prices have fallen from January to March. With the sharp decline of crude oil and the continuous decline of styrene, the pressure on petrochemical manufacturers to ship has increased. The market supply is sufficient, and businesses have reduced prices to sell, forming an inverted market situation. At the end of March, due to the reduction of production and parking of some PS devices, and the tight supply of some materials and goods, merchants raised their offers, but the pressure on shipping remains significant.
Phase 2
From April to June, prices first rose and then fell. In April, affected by weak demand, merchants reduced prices to sell, but the overall decline in the PS market was limited due to tight supply of goods and support from replenishment costs. From May to June, due to the increase in the focus of styrene, businesses are exploring to increase prices for sales. In addition, the PS plant has been shut down for maintenance and production reduction, resulting in an increase in market prices.
Third stage
Prices have increased from July to September. In July, the manufacturers carried out a lot of equipment maintenance, which led to a tight spot circulation of some materials. The price of some PS petrochemical manufacturers increased, which led to a rise in the prices of merchants. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the petrochemical manufacturers actively raised prices and the supply of goods was tight. The atmosphere of price increases in the market was strong, and PS prices continued to rise.
Stage 4
Prices have fallen from October to December. The overall trend of crude oil shows a volatile downward trend, with styrene under heavy pressure and futures continuously falling. PS petrochemical manufacturers have lowered prices, while ordinary material prices have also fallen. Although some materials have tightened due to production cuts, merchants mainly offer discounts for shipments.
Future Market Forecast
In terms of supply: China’s polystyrene industry is still in the development stage, and there is still a certain gap compared to foreign countries in terms of technology level, product quality, and product structure. The scale of the domestic polystyrene market is growing rapidly, and production capacity is in the growth stage from 2020 to 2023. In 2023, China’s effective PS production capacity is about 7.2 million tons, accounting for 39% of the global production capacity. In 2024, PS is in a high-speed expansion period, with an expected new production capacity of about 1.46 million tons and a capacity growth rate of 20.1%.
PS production capacity growth situation
In terms of supply: China’s polystyrene industry is still in the development stage, and there is still a certain gap compared to foreign countries in terms of technology level, product quality, and product structure. The scale of the domestic polystyrene market is growing rapidly, and production capacity is in the growth stage from 2020 to 2023. In 2023, China’s effective PS production capacity is about 7.2 million tons, accounting for 39% of the global production capacity. In 2024, PS is in a high-speed expansion period, with an expected new production capacity of about 1.46 million tons and a capacity growth rate of 20.1%.
In terms of demand: In 2023, China’s PS demand increased by 7% year-on-year, maintaining a high global demand position. This high growth rate is mainly due to the rapid recovery of the home appliance and fast-moving consumer goods sectors after the end of the epidemic. The main application areas of PS are the inner and outer compartments of household appliances, as well as the packaging of fast-moving consumer goods, accounting for 49% and 21% respectively.
In summary, under the policy of “ensuring delivery of buildings”, the completion data has performed well, driving the demand for household appliances and boosting PS consumption to a certain extent. It is expected that PS supply will steadily increase. In 2024, it is planned to add 1.46 million tons of production capacity, distributed throughout the year, which is equivalent to about 1.3432 million tons of styrene demand, still the second largest downstream of styrene.
In 2024, the global economy still faces challenges as domestic economic fundamentals slowly recover, PS expansion continues, domestic supply continues to rise, industry pressures continue to escalate, and downstream demand grows steadily, but far slower than supply growth. Overall, it is expected that the low prices in the domestic PS market will become the norm in 2024. The mainstream operating range for ordinary grade GPPS products may be between 7400-10000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream operating range for ordinary grade HIPS products may be between 8000-10200 yuan/ton.
