Recently (11.13-11.22), the acrylonitrile market continued to rise slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 22, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10162 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26% from 9937 yuan/ton on November 13. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile in the market is between 10000 to 10300 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly and the cost support for acrylonitrile weakened slightly; The main downstream ABS is operating steadily; The construction of acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and there is basically no pressure on the supply and demand side. The acrylonitrile market just needs inquiry support, and prices have risen.

Recently (11.13-11.22), the overall construction of domestic acrylonitrile units has slightly declined.

Recently (11.13-11.22), the raw material propylene market has experienced a slight decline due to fluctuations, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 22, the domestic propylene price was 7058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.01% from 7203 yuan/ton on November 13.

It is understood that as of early November, the downstream ABS construction has remained around 80%, which requires support for acrylonitrile; Recently, the domestic and foreign trade orders for acrylic yarn have been lackluster, and market trading has continued to be sluggish. There has been a varying degree of increase in inventory in acrylic factories, which only requires support for acrylic; The restart of the nitrile rubber Nandi plant and the temporary shutdown of the Ningbo Shunze nitrile plant have resulted in a slight decrease in demand for acrylonitrile; The construction of polyacrylamide and other materials has been basically stable. Overall, there is still support for the demand for acrylonitrile, but as the price of acrylonitrile further increases, downstream inquiries are gradually on the sidelines.

Future Market Forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is stable and slightly declining; The demand side is mainly in need of support. Recently, the international crude oil price has fluctuated at a low level, and the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and decreased. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

This week (11.13-11.21), the dichloromethane market continued to decline weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 21, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from last Monday’s 2490 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol is weak and low, while the price of liquid chlorine remains high, and the cost of dichloromethane still has support; Downstream and terminal customers should be cautious in purchasing goods. Enterprises in Shandong region generally have low inventory pressure when shipping, while enterprises in East China and other regions have low inventory pressure when shipping dichloromethane. Some domestic enterprises have lowered the factory price of dichloromethane, and as of November 21, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2350-2500 yuan/ton.

This week (11.13-11.21), domestic methane chloride production slightly increased to around 6.5%.

This week (11.13-11.21), the raw material methanol slightly decreased, the price of liquid chlorine remained high, and the cost of dichloromethane still has support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 21, the spot price of methanol was 2395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.68% from last Monday’s 2460 yuan/ton. As of November 21st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has been sorted out around 600 yuan/ton.

The domestic production of methane chloride is at a low level of around 6.5%. With the recent decline in the factory price of dichloromethane, the inventory pressure of dichloromethane in Shandong Province has greatly decreased. However, the terminal is still cautious in purchasing goods, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is still weak. Some enterprises in East China have not significantly improved their shipment situation, and the inventory pressure of enterprises has increased.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of Business Society, the demand for dichloromethane is weak, and the supply side has slightly increased compared to the previous period, which has a negative impact on the dichloromethane market. However, the rising raw material prices have cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 10 to November 17, 2023, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell first and then rose. Last week, it was at 7700 yuan/ton, and this week it was 7683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures plummeted on November 16th. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $72.90 per barrel, a decrease of $3.76 or 4.9%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 77.42 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 3.76 US dollars or 4.6%. The US crude oil inventory has significantly increased, and more importantly, weak economic data has exacerbated concerns about future demand. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the current logic of crude oil trading is still a supply-demand game, and the pressure of tight supply has eased as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not shown a worsening trend of expansion. At present, market attention is more focused on various economic data indicators, which will become a barometer of demand prospects. Recently, multiple data releases have shown that economic data from important regions in the West and Asia are biased towards weakness, which will further exacerbate bearish demand sentiment in the future. In the short term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, but the market still needs to pay attention to OPEC policy trends, which will limit the downward space of oil prices.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene and the listed price of Sinopec pure benzene will continue to be 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7653 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On November 13th, the price of pure benzene was 7675 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 17th), the price of pure benzene was 7750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64% compared to last week and an increase of 11.25% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market rose first and then fell this week. The overall strength of the styrene market was boosted by the positive news, and the pure benzene market rose slightly next week. Downstream inquiries were relatively positive, and market trading was good. The hydrogenation benzene market has been on the rise this week, with overall market prices slightly increasing by 150-200 yuan/ton.

This week, the pure benzene market overall rose, with Sinopec’s listed price continuing to reach 7750 yuan/ton. The hydrogenation benzene market has slightly increased, with a current price of 7800 to 7850 yuan/ton in East China, and an increase of 150 to 200 yuan/ton within the week. In terms of supply and demand, as the hydrogenation benzene enterprises undergoing preliminary maintenance continue to operate, the overall operating rate of hydrogenation benzene has increased, and the overall supply is relatively loose. In terms of demand, downstream production has been suspended and resumed in parallel, and the overall demand has not shown significant performance, and there is still a shortage of demand. Overall, the current overall strength of the industrial chain has boosted the prices of most commodities. However, with the recent increase in supply of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene, the market is slightly under pressure. Over the weekend, crude oil weakened again, which has a certain impact on market sentiment. In the future, market bearishness is expected to emerge, and the pure benzene industrial chain is expected to be under pressure in the future, with the market operating steadily and weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7500.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7520.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27%. The current price has increased by 0.13% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 18.04% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been mainly rising in the past month, with a slight upward trend this week. Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has seen a slight increase in prices, with good cost support. Downstream procurement has maintained a strong demand, and potassium carbonate manufacturers have shipped according to orders. The market trading atmosphere is positive, and the market has slightly increased. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7700 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and consolidated: the prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride have temporarily stabilized. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has been on the rise, with limited supply of goods in the market. The port price of imported 62% white potassium is basically between 2950 and 2980 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly increase in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to monitoring data from the Business Society, as of November 16, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 14540 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to November 12. Compared to November 1 (organic silicon DMC reference was 14780 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.62%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that as of this week, the overall volatility of the domestic organic silicon DMC market is limited, and the organic silicon DMC market is mainly operating in a “stable” manner. During the week, the quotation for organic silicon DMC from Shandong large factories remained around 14500 yuan/ton, and the prices of organic silicon DMC from leading large factories remained stable. The overall market was in a period of consolidation and recovery, and the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC remained average. Downstream factories were cautious in stocking and had a strong wait-and-see attitude. As of November 16th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 14500-14700 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the overall market situation of organic silicon DMC is at a relatively low level, and the boost in downstream orders on the market is still average. The trading atmosphere on the market is relatively quiet, and inquiries are relatively cold. Some downstream factories have reduced their burden to start operations, and the procurement operation of raw materials is cautious. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the market situation of organic silicon DMC will mainly adjust within a narrow range. More attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand information.