Price: 3116 yuan/ton

Analysis: On March 20th, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 4.82%. The main reason for this week’s maintenance of some equipment failures in the main production areas of Shandong, Henan, and other regions has led to a contraction in the supply side, which has brought positive news and a rise in market prices. On Wednesday, major factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei and Henan provinces generally raised prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. The market atmosphere is strong, and dealer quotes are rising. However, there has not been a significant improvement in downstream demand, and agricultural demand is still in a gap period. Industrial demand remains strong, and the increase is mainly driven by positive supply side factors. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3000-3200 yuan/ton.

Prediction: It is expected that northern liquid ammonia enterprises may resume work in the short term, and the tight supply pattern may improve in the later stage. Coupled with the fact that the downstream agricultural peak season has not yet arrived, we are cautious about the future market situation. It is expected that the upward trend of liquid ammonia in the later stage may be difficult to maintain, and the possibility of price reversal cannot be ruled out.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTMEG price has slightly decreased this week. As of March 19th, the PTMEG price was 20600 yuan/ton, and on March 12th, the PTMEG price was 20933 yuan/ton, a decrease of 333 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 1.59%.

In terms of equipment

At present, the overall operating rate of the domestic industry is stable at around 86.2%, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year.

Upstream aspect

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of PTMEG, the BDO market fluctuated this week, with a current price of 9428 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have undergone maintenance and restarted, leading to an increase in industry load and an increase in market supply.

In terms of demand

The main downstream spandex price is 30625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.33% from last week and 1.57% from the beginning of the month. Terminal manufacturing factories generally indicate that customer inquiries are positive, but it is difficult to complete orders, with small batch orders being the main focus of new foreign trade orders. The overall wait-and-see attitude is obvious. The PU and TPU industries in the polyurethane field have seen a rise in market trends, but the purchasing willingness is not strong.

Future Market Forecast

The operating rate has increased, with significant support from the supply side. However, there is currently no positive expectation for downstream demand at the terminal, and the supply-demand contradiction continues. The overall market situation is stagnant and consolidating. It is expected that the PTMEG market will experience a narrow consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam on March 11th was 13525 yuan/ton, and on March 15th, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 13300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of caprolactam fell by 1.66%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. There is a high supply of caprolactam in the market, and downstream purchases are made on demand. The supply and demand side support is weak, and manufacturers and distributors are cautious and cautious. Last week, the final price of Sinopec caprolactam was 13500 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. This week, the price of pure benzene has increased. On March 11th, the price of pure benzene was 8342 yuan/ton. On Friday (March 15th), the price of pure benzene was 8550 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.49% compared to last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 8350 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. The PA6 market price has fallen this week. Enterprise quotations have been lowered, mainly for old customers. As of March 15th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14950 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been stabilizing recently. The raw material pure benzene is strengthening, and there is still support on the cost side. But the market supply is sufficient, and terminal demand is limited. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term consolidation of the caprolactam market will be the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the market price of isopropanol remained stable with an increase this week. Last Thursday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8340 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 8360 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.24% during the week.

This week, the market price of isopropanol remained stable with some increase. The overall trading situation in the market is average. The market price of raw material acetone has fluctuated and risen, and the cost support is still acceptable. The confidence in the isopropanol market is average, and the market situation is lukewarm. The market price range is relatively strong and consolidating. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 8100-8400 yuan/ton; The majority of quotes for isopropanol in the Jiangsu region are based on market reference prices of around 8400-8600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market price fluctuated this week. Last Thursday, the average price of acetone in China was 7305 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 7307.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.03%. At present, the trading situation in the acetone market is still acceptable. It is expected that the acetone market will operate strongly in the short term.

In terms of propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of propylene in the market fell this week. Last Thursday, the average domestic propylene price was 7074.6 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 6948.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78%. The current overall trading situation of propylene is average. It is expected that the propylene market price will be weak in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the upstream acetone price has been fluctuating strongly this week, while the propylene market price has declined, and the overall cost support is average. The overall market for isopropanol is lukewarm, and downstream enterprises are in urgent need of replenishment, so transactions are cautious. It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain strong in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 13, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton. Compared with March 10 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7950 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63%. Compared to March 1st (reference price of propylene glycol at 8100 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 13, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3816 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 3833 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%.

From the two data monitoring charts of Shengyi Society on propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate, it can be seen that in March, the domestic propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate markets have shown a weak downward trend. After entering this week, the overall market situation of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate did not show significant improvement. The overall market for dimethyl carbonate shows a weak consolidation operation. The propylene glycol market has experienced a slight bearish decline, and the focus of market negotiations is moving downwards.

At present, in the production facilities of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate in China, the co production of the two still dominates. Therefore, the market trends of the two products have a mutual influence. The main influencing factors for the weak performance of both propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate products this time are weak downstream demand, and the overall support provided by the demand side to the market is insufficient. There is some pressure on the overall shipment of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate, Therefore, the overall performance of the market is also weak. As of March 13th, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 3600-4000 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate markets is relatively light. The propylene glycol industry mainly ships, and the propylene glycol market price fluctuates narrowly overall. Downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is also average, and the market is mainly weak and consolidating. Business Society’s propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate markets will mainly operate through range adjustment, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.