According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 28th to December 5th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16100 yuan/ton to 15816 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.76% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.07%. The domestic aggregated MDI market prices have fallen, with a slow decline and a poor overall trading atmosphere, with some shipments showing strong willingness. But as the settlement of supplier prices at the end of the month exceeded expectations, a cautious atmosphere increased, with slow follow-up being the main focus.

On the supply side, Kesichuang will undergo maintenance on November 16th, lasting for about a month. Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd.’s MDI Phase I 400000 ton/year unit will start maintenance on November 15th, and the Phase II 800000 ton/year unit will start shutdown maintenance on December 3rd, with each unit undergoing maintenance for about 50 days. Both Chongqing BASF and Shanghai Lianheng have maintenance plans, and the supply side is gradually shrinking. The overall market support still exists. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has continued to decline in the East China market. The prices of main operating units have once again been lowered, and news of unplanned shutdown of some downstream units has spread. The overall downstream demand continues to decrease, and the atmosphere of spot buying by customers is insufficient, with a focus on buying on dips. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6867.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: There is a strong bearish atmosphere in the aniline market, with lower willingness to reserve downstream positions and a focus on on-demand procurement. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 11475.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI deviates from the influence of null factors.

On the demand side, inventory is at a low level, but the short-term improvement in consumption capacity is expected to be limited. Participants remain in a market driven state, coupled with some aggregated MDI imported goods offering low prices and buying at low prices. The ability to follow up on higher prices is limited. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the current supply and demand are weak and horizontal. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market may continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell first and then rose this week (11.27-12.4). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 201010 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 200460 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.27%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In the early stage, the tin market was affected by a sufficient supply of imported goods, and prices continued to decline. As prices declined, downstream entry was active, and market transactions were good. The decline in inventory boosted tin prices, which rose on Friday night and continued to rise on Monday morning. Shanghai tin closed up 1.83%. In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of smelters is relatively stable. However, with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively sufficient, and inventory is relatively high. In terms of demand, there has been little change in terminal consumption recently, and the overall trend is still weak. However, with the recent decline in tin prices, downstream market entry enthusiasm has increased, actively replenishing inventory, and purchasing intentions are still acceptable. Overall, the tin ingot market has recently seen loose supply and weak demand, and it is expected to remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term. However, the spot market has recently seen good transactions, and the downward space for tin prices is also limited.

On December 3rd, the non-ferrous index was at 1088 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.26% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.24% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 48th week of 2023 (11.27-12.1), there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were silver (5.59%), nickel (5.21%), and gold (2.13%). There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decline, and 1 product with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were cobalt (-8.48%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-4.55%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-3.32%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.38%.

In November, the butadiene styrene rubber market was weak and fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 11841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.89% from 12583 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In November, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber was loose, with downstream tire production increasing in the early stage and styrene butadiene rubber receiving demand support. In the later stage, downstream inquiries were wait-and-see, and market transactions were flat; At the end of the month, the high price of raw material butadiene decreased, and the overall price of styrene declined. The cost support for butadiene styrene rubber gradually weakened, and the overall price of butadiene styrene rubber declined.

In November, the supply of butadiene styrene rubber was mainly loose.

In October, the price of butadiene, a raw material for styrene butadiene rubber, was strong in the early stage and fell at the end of the month. The price of styrene was weak and fell, and the cost support for styrene butadiene rubber gradually weakened.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of butadiene was 9125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 9516 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of November 30th, the price of styrene was 8416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.17% from 8783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In October, the natural rubber market first rose and then fell, providing slightly stronger support for styrene butadiene rubber in the early stage. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price was 12850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the beginning of the month’s 12860 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 13160 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Tire production in November slightly increased compared to October, providing some essential support for rubber. However, as tires enter the off-season at the end of the year, tire factory production expectations are expected to decrease, and support for rubber may weaken in the future. It is understood that as of late November 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 640%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that downstream production is generally stable, but expectations are expected to decrease in the later stage. The supply of butadiene styrene rubber has slightly declined, and the price of raw material butadiene styrene has declined. It is expected that the butadiene styrene rubber market will remain weak in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8228 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price on November 30th was 8100 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation fell by 1.56%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9112 yuan/ton on November 2nd, and the average price on November 30th was 9137 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8650 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price on November 30th was 8550 yuan/ton, with a 1.16% decrease in quotation during this period.

In November, the overall performance of polyethylene showed a weak trend. LDPE performed relatively well in resistance to decline, while LLDPE and HDPE saw a narrow decline adjustment. At the beginning of the month, companies showed a slight upward trend in their prices, but there was limited upward potential. The international oil price trend within the month was volatile and weak, suppressing the polyethylene market. The maintenance equipment of petrochemical enterprises has decreased compared to the previous period, and the supply of polyethylene is still sufficient. Downstream agricultural film and pipe demand has weakened, market demand has weakened, with rigid demand as the main focus and limited new orders; Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price.

On November 30th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7890 yuan, and the closing price was 7968 yuan, up 86 yuan. The highest price was 7979 yuan, and the lowest was 7869 yuan, up 1.09%. In November, polyethylene futures fluctuated in the first half of the month, with a significant decline in the second half and a slight increase towards the end of the month.

On November 29th, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, supporting polyethylene on the cost side. The operating rate of agricultural film enterprises is relatively low, downstream procurement enthusiasm is reduced, demand side support is insufficient, polyethylene fundamentals are poor, and there is a lack of effective upward momentum. It is expected that they will mainly fluctuate weakly.

441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

In November, metal silicon first fell and then stabilized. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 29, 2023, the reference price for domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 25.04% from the same period last year. At the beginning of the month, there was news of the shutdown of Southwest Power Co., Ltd., but the cancelled warehouse receipts have gradually flowed into the spot warehouse and have not yet been released. Overall, the supply has remained stable and the flow of goods is relatively abundant. Coupled with the decline in polycrystalline silicon prices, it has seriously pressured the price of metal silicon. Under the resonance of supply and demand, metal silicon is under pressure. In the mid to late period, the price of silicon metal tends to stabilize, with a slight decrease in prices in Xinjiang. In the context of the electricity price trend during the dry season in the southwest region, manufacturers have a clear willingness to raise prices, and the upstream and downstream are deadlocked in a game, resulting in stable prices.

Supply side

The main production areas in Southwest China have gradually entered the flat and dry seasons. Based on the current scale of production stoppage, the production reduction in Southwest China in November did not exceed expectations. In the later stage, there is still room for further production reduction, and it is expected that the production will decrease month on month. The slow release of new production capacity from major factories in the northwest, coupled with warehouse receipt cancellations, is expected to result in an overall oversupply in the market in December.

Cost side

Electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have both increased in November, and it is expected that there will still be some room for increase in December, with the cost bottom further moving upwards. The ongoing border conflict in Myanmar has led to an increase in the price of wood chips, but the slowdown in procurement due to the reduction in construction in the southwest has partially offset the impact. Xinjiang’s silicon coal saw a slight increase due to the recent strong dual focus and contraction in mining supervision supply, resulting in a rise in prices at the end of the month.

Demand side

In November, the price of polycrystalline silicon further declined, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 68000 to 70000 yuan/ton. The new production capacity of polycrystalline silicon is still being continuously invested, but market transactions are limited, and there is a demand for stock of metallic silicon, but the price is severely suppressed.

The organic silicon DMC market is weakly declining, and on November 29th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 14320 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is limited, and the factory’s order volume is average. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on site, and some downstream factories have started operating at a reduced rate, indicating a further narrowing trend in demand for metallic silicon.

The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 50.1% month on month, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 51.6% month on month. The procurement of recycled aluminum alloy raw materials has been hindered, and downstream orders have weakened, leading to a decrease in production to maintain essential procurement.

According to customs data, industrial silicon exports in October amounted to 43600 tons, a decrease of 15.01% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 12.95%. There was a significant decrease in exports compared to September, mainly due to weak overseas demand.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current production reduction in Southwest China has not exceeded expectations, and the price of metallic silicon has not fluctuated significantly for more than half a month. With no significant changes in fundamentals, it is difficult for silicon prices to break through. If the cost of Southwest China rises in December and some raw material inventory is consumed, silicon prices are expected to rebound. Continuous attention should be paid to the production reduction in Southwest China and changes in downstream demand. It is expected that the price of metallic silicon will remain stable in the short term.