Price trend in 2023

 

According to data from Business Society, the average market price of ammonium sulfate on January 1st was 1243 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average market price of ammonium sulfate was 833 yuan/ton. The domestic ammonium sulfate market fell by 32.98% for the whole year of 2023. The highest value of ammonium sulfate for the year was 1240 yuan/ton on February 2nd, and the lowest value for the year was 663 yuan/ton on June 26th.

 

2023 Market Analysis

 

In 2023, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices continued to decline and then fluctuated.

 

The ammonium sulfate market continued to weaken in the first half of 2023, with prices falling continuously. In the first half of the year, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market continued to be weak, with a small amount of downstream purchases and excessive pressure on prices, resulting in weak new order transactions. The export performance of ammonium sulfate is poor, and the market situation continues to be sluggish. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has dropped significantly, and domestic grade ammonium sulfate has followed suit. The continuous weakening of urea prices in the first half of the year has negatively impacted the ammonium sulfate market. Under the influence of bullish and bearish factors, the ammonium sulfate market continued to decline in the first half of the year.

 

In the second half of 2023, the ammonium sulfate market saw mixed ups and downs. The domestic ammonium sulfate market price increased significantly in July. The inventory of ammonium sulfate in the market is low, and manufacturers and distributors are hesitant to sell. The significant increase in urea prices has boosted the nitrogen fertilizer market. The international market for ammonium sulfate is improving, with increased buying. The price of ammonium sulfate began to decline in August. The poor performance of the international market has a negative impact on the domestic market. In September, due to domestic urea export restrictions and India’s release of a new round of bidding news, the international nitrogen fertilizer market surged, and the domestic ammonium sulfate bidding price significantly increased. Export orders have significantly increased, and downstream and distributors are actively acquiring goods. The market price of ammonium sulfate decreased from October to November. The market demand is weak, and downstream and dealer inquiries have decreased. The decrease in international market transaction prices has an impact on the domestic market. The bidding price of domestic ammonium sulfate increased in December. Foreign orders have been followed up with a small amount, and market transactions are good.

 

According to the K-bar chart of 2023, it can be seen that the maximum increase in caprolactam in July 2023 was 53.28%. The largest decline of the year was in November, with a decline of 30.94%.

 

2024 Aftermarket Forecast

 

Supply situation

 

In 2023, the annual production capacity of ammonium sulfate plants that have been put into operation and are about to be put into operation in China will reach over 21 million tons. It is expected to eliminate 52.28 million tons of coking production capacity, add 50.2 million tons, and net eliminate 2.08 million tons in 2023. In 2023, the domestic production capacity of caprolactam increased, with an additional production of 1.26 million tons of ammonium sulfate. From January to October 2023, China’s ammonium sulfate production was 13.66 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.31 million tons. The total production is expected to be around 18 million tons in 2023.

 

Export situation

 

The export volume of ammonium sulfate from China in 2023 was 13.77 million tons, an increase of 11.5% compared to the same period last year. The export amount was 2.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.6% compared to the same period last year in 2022. The proportion of ammonium sulfate exports increased from 53.5% in 2013 to 84.8% in 2023, indicating a high dependence on exports. The export market situation of ammonium sulfate directly affects the domestic market.

 

Demand situation

Ammonium sulfate is mainly used in the field of compound fertilizers, and the proportion of rare earth mining applications has decreased. The demand for other refractory materials, combustion aids, dyeing aids, and other fields has decreased. In 2023, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market steadily increased, with domestic demand growth being smaller than foreign demand. The demand for domestic ammonium sulfate has increased and is mostly used for export.

 

summary

 

In summary, the overall domestic ammonium sulfate market in 2023 is weak and volatile. With the growth of demand for agricultural fertilizers in China, the market demand for ammonium sulfate will continue to increase. The production capacity and process of ammonium sulfate in our country are also constantly improving and innovating. It is expected that the growth momentum of the domestic ammonium sulfate industry will continue in 2024, and the production and export volume will continue to increase. To increase domestic sales and reduce export dependence, it is necessary to achieve diversified development of product consumption.

http://www.sulfamic-acid.com

According to data monitored by Business Society, carbon black prices have remained stable this week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is 8633 yuan/ton

 

In terms of raw materials, the price of coal tar in the market has fluctuated this week. As of the 12th, the price of coal tar was 3602 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 600 yuan/ton from January 1st, a decrease of 14.7%. Currently, the low price of coal tar has weak support for the cost of carbon black. With the continuous and significant decline in coal tar prices in the early stage, some downstream traders have started to purchase on dips, and downstream factories have gradually turned from losses to profits, increasing their purchasing enthusiasm. The current price of coal tar is fluctuating at a low level, and the rebound momentum of the coal tar market is insufficient. In the short term, the price is in a relatively weak and stable state.

 

Supply and demand side: Compared to the previous period, the operating rate of most carbon black enterprises has not changed much and fluctuates within a narrow range.

 

In terms of terminals: The overall shipment of downstream tire industry is average, with severe accumulation of on-site inventory, and the domestic market demand is becoming increasingly scarce. The transportation volume of goods in the northern logistics industry has significantly decreased, and the demand for tire replacement has sharply decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventory continues to slowly increase. Some tire companies are carrying out equipment maintenance to reduce production burden. The sales pressure in the current tire market is not decreasing, and some companies have launched large-scale promotional policies, mainly focusing on digesting inventory.

 

In the future, the high-temperature coal tar market may continue to be weak, providing poor support for the cost of carbon black; Manufacturers have poor enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black raw materials, and their entry into the market only maintains a basic demand, resulting in a relatively quiet market trading atmosphere. In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is expected to experience weak consolidation of carbon black in the short term due to multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market.

http://www.sulfamic-acid.com

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 19, 2023, the domestic market price reference for organic silicon DMC is 14760 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to January 10; Compared to January 1st (organic silicon DMC reference 13940 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88%.

 

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that during the mid month period (1.10 to 1.19), the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market remained stable at a high level. In early January, the domestic organic silicon DMC market experienced a broad upward trend, with high-end prices breaking through the 15000 yuan/ton mark, an increase of 5.88% in the first half of the year. In the mid stage, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a stable operation after an increase, with overall price fluctuations not significant. Some factory orders were scheduled for the early Spring Festival, and supply side pressure was relatively low. Many factories maintained strong quotations. At present, the overall inquiry atmosphere in the downstream of organic silicon DMC has weakened. After a round of buying up orders in the early stage, most of the downstream orders are in the period of digesting raw materials, and new orders are mostly in demand. As of January 19th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is based on around 14600-15000 yuan/ton.

 

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

 

After a round of upward movement at the beginning of the month, the overall performance of the organic silicon DMC market has returned to calm, and downstream new single markets have also increased some wait-and-see sentiment. However, currently, the organic silicon DMC market still has support from low supply side inventory. Therefore, the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly continue to operate steadily, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

http://www.sulfamic-acid.com

Product name: Titanium dioxide

 

Latest price on January 17th: 16350 yuan/ton

 

Key points of analysis: On January 17th, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices remained stable. At present, the quoted price for rutile type titanium dioxide is around 15700-17100 yuan/ton. The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. At present, the manufacturer’s inventory is low, mainly issuing early orders, and the enterprise’s quotation is temporarily stable.

 

Prediction: It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will remain unchanged.

http://www.sulfamic-acid.com

Recent price trends of isooctanol

 

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region fluctuated and increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong region increased from 12962.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 13000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.29%. Weekend prices increased by 32.20% year-on-year. On January 15th, the Isooctanol Commodity Index was 95.04, a decrease of 0.55 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.88% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 170.38% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

 

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

 

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of Shandong isooctanol have slightly increased their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

 

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6638.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6670.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.49%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.00% in weekend prices. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

 

From the downstream market situation of isooctanol, the DOP market price fluctuated and increased this week. The DOP price increased from 12091.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12120 yuan/ton on the weekend, an increase of 0.23%, and the weekend price increased by 20.96% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively increasing their purchases of isooctanol.

 

Future prospects

 

In mid to late January, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

http://www.sulfamic-acid.com