According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated and rose in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9531 yuan/ton to 10012 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.05%, and the price increased by 5.5% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose, and the raw material pure benzene market was operating strongly. The cost pressure continued to increase, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone market was not high. Downstream solvents were gradually closed, and chemical fibers were purchased on demand. Due to cost pressure, the market low price continued to decrease.

After the holiday, the domestic price of cyclohexanone tends to be strong, and the price of pure benzene has increased, resulting in greater cost pressure. Under cost pressure, the offer for cyclohexanone has been actively raised, and downstream demand has been followed up, resulting in a decrease in low-priced supply in the market.

On the cost side, the price of pure benzene at ports in East China continued to rise significantly in February, with a slight decline in the latter half of the year. As of February 29th, the benchmark price of pure benzene at Shengyishe was 8478.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market saw a slight increase in February. Before the Spring Festival, transportation was affected by rainy and snowy weather in some northern regions, and downstream stocking was concentrated. The supply of caprolactam in the market was tight, and prices were firm. After the Spring Festival, the price of upstream pure benzene has continued to rise, with strong cost support. The price of caprolactam has also risen, and the market continues to show a preference trend. Towards the end of the month, the price of pure benzene has fallen, and caprolactam has followed suit with a slight pullback. As of February 29th, the benchmark price of caprolactam for Shengyishe is 13912.50 yuan/ton. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is expected to decline weakly, and the cost support will weaken. Downstream demand will follow up, and the market spot supply will be stable and abundant. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

Summary of prices for ethylene oxide in February

In February, the price of ethylene oxide slightly increased by 1.52%. According to data from Business Society, as of February 29th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6700 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6800 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6700 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6750 yuan/ton.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The correlation between the price increase of ethylene oxide in February and the demand of downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high. This is mainly due to the increase in upstream raw material ethylene prices, which increases the cost pressure on ethylene oxide enterprises and transmits the rising water to ethylene oxide. The price of ethylene glycol, a related product, has remained volatile at a high level after an earlier increase, which has also given positive expectations to the supply side of ethylene oxide.

Future market forecast

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide may have positive expectations with the start of terminal real estate construction. The supply side is affected by factors related to production conversion, resulting in an improvement in supply expectations. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will fluctuate strongly in March.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash was weak in February. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2580 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2190 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 15.12%, a decrease of 20.94% compared to the same period last year. On February 27th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 112.82, a decrease of 2.05 points from yesterday, a decrease of 40.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 78.65% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has been weak this month. This menstrual period is during the Spring Festival holiday, but the main focus is on replenishing inventory in the downstream. The prices of soda ash in the North China region are consolidating, with the mainstream market for light soda ash around 2100-2300 yuan/ton, the mainstream market for light soda ash in the East China region around 2100-2400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market for light soda ash in the Central China region around 2000-2200 yuan/ton. The device has been stable recently and there are currently no maintenance expectations.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of glass is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 22.27 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 21.99 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price decreased by 1.26%. From a regional perspective, the glass spot market in Shahe, North China is still in good condition, with flexible trading on the market and acceptable manufacturer shipments. The market trading situation in the East China region is average, and downstream demand for goods is high. The overall production and sales in Central China are average, but due to road transportation reasons, the market is relatively light. The production and sales situation of glass in South China is average, and the middle and downstream markets have just recovered, with a focus on restocking in demand. The overall consolidation of glass prices this month is the main trend.

Business Society analysts believe that according to the Business Society commodity analysis system, the price of soda ash is fluctuating. Recently, the production of caustic soda has been relatively stable, and manufacturers have no maintenance plans. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, without any positive support. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will fluctuate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The price of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 26th, the price of DOP was 11770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the price of 11820 yuan/ton on February 19th last week; The price has increased by 0.51% compared to February 23rd at 11710 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has stopped falling and risen, while the cost of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen; After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed operations, and the supply of plasticizer DOP increased.

This week, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the price of isooctanol was 12437.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on February 19th last week, which was 12425 yuan/ton; Compared to last weekend, the price of 12400 yuan/ton has stopped falling and increased by 0.30%. After the holiday, the slow recovery of isooctanol, coupled with the slow increase in downstream customer production, has led to a rebound in demand for isooctanol, and the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen.

PVC prices fluctuate and rise after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the PVC quotation was 5592 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.47% compared to the PVC quotation of 5566 yuan/ton on February 19th last week. After the holiday, the PVC market rebounded, PVC prices fluctuated and rose, and the demand for plasticizers rebounded.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that after the holiday, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling; The PVC market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded. In the future, the cost of plasticizers has stopped falling and risen, downstream demand has rebounded, and it is expected that DOP prices will rise in the future.

After the holiday, the price of plasticizer DBP is weak and consolidating

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 19th, the DBP price was 9775 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the DBP price of 9775 yuan/ton on February 9th before the holiday. The raw material n-butanol has experienced strong consolidation, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. DBP costs have also increased. After the holiday, DBP enterprises have resumed production, DBP supply has increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. DBP prices are weak and consolidating.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 19th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12450 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.81% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on February 9th before the holiday, which was 12350 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of 12375 yuan/ton increased by 0.61%. During the Spring Festival, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, but there was some recovery after the holiday. In addition, downstream customers restocked, and the demand for isooctanol slowly rebounded. During the Spring Festival, the price of isooctanol remained high, and after the holiday, the price of isooctanol slightly increased.

High level consolidation of n-butanol prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 19th, the price of n-butanol was 8733.33 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of n-butanol on February 9th before the holiday, which was 8733.33 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of n-butanol decreased by 0.95% at 8816.67 yuan/ton. Low inventory of n-butanol enterprises, high consolidation of n-butanol prices; DBP cost support still exists.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: n-butanol is consolidating at a high level, isooctanol prices are fluctuating and rising, and DBP raw material costs are supporting; After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed production and DBP supply increased. In the future, cost support still exists, and the supply of plasticizer DBP increases. It is expected that DBP prices will remain weak and consolidate in the future.