Recently (12.1-12.12), the dichloromethane market has experienced a decline followed by an increase, with an overall decline. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.19% from 2505 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 2370 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of dichloromethane has shifted downwards; After downstream and terminal stocking operations last weekend, the current inventory of enterprises is low, and some domestic enterprises have raised the factory price of dichloromethane. As of December 12th, the mainstream factory price of dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.1-12.12), domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of dichloromethane has decreased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the spot price of methanol was 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.20% from the beginning of the month’s 2505 yuan/ton. As of December 12th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 200 yuan/ton, which continues to decline compared to the previous period.

The overall supply of methane chloride in China is stable, with some inventory in the Shandong region on weekends. Currently, enterprise inventories are at a low level, and the factory price of dichloromethane has slightly increased. After a wave of stocking, the overall market demand has weakened again, and the price of dichloromethane fluctuates narrowly.

Market forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, while the supply is relatively loose, which has a bearish impact on the dichloromethane market. In addition, the lower raw material prices have weakened the cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of new pentanediol has slightly declined this week. This week, the average price of new pentanediol in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 9725.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9650.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.77%. The weekend price increased by 7.62% year-on-year. On December 10th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 46.51, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 8.04% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The mainstream market price of new pentanediol has slightly declined this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the price of isobutyraldehyde in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7833.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 4.91%, and the weekend price increased by 26.01% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. However, due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late December, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market was weak in early December, with prices of various wire drawing brands generally falling. As of December 8th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7571.43 yuan/ton, with a rise or fall of -1.03% compared to the initial average price level.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the recent news of OPEC reduction in international crude oil production has settled, and prices have rebounded from a low level. However, due to weak demand and high inventory levels, the spot price of propylene has experienced a significant decline. In terms of PDH, prices have rebounded due to the recovery of natural gas and propane transportation capacity. The methanol market is relatively stable. Upstream raw materials fluctuate, and overall support for PP is weak.

The raw materials flow in different directions is inconsistent, and the cost side has average support for PP. In terms of industry load, the average load of the polypropylene industry in early December was around 73%, with limited changes compared to the end of November. The overall supply of goods is abundant, and it is expected that production will steadily decline in the future, but the magnitude is not significant, and the pressure on on-site supply is not prominent. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production is maintained at around 43%, and the production rate of film materials and injection molding enterprises is maintained at over 60%. The overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with poor trading activity on the exchange, resulting in an overall decline in the wire drawing market.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also declined. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7575 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.49% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 5.31% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have maintained a stable load, with an operating rate of over 39%. The digestion speed of end products is relatively strong due to frequent outbreaks of influenza, and the demand for fiber materials in the market is increasing narrowly, but the support for non-woven fabric prices is not significant. It is expected that the market for fiber materials will continue in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the domestic supply and demand situation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market saw a narrow decline in early December. As of December 8th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8162.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.91%, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.64%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has not increased significantly, and the impact of seasonal climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not yet significant. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. It is expected that the melt blown material market will maintain a narrow consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market weakened in early December. Upstream raw materials have mixed trends, with weak support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises maintain their initial level of production, and their procurement operations tend towards a small amount of rigid demand. The PP device load is generally stable, with a slight expected decline in the future. At present, the supply and demand of PP are weak, and the market momentum is low. It is expected that the PP market will maintain a narrow and weak operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 7th, the average quoted price of 85% industrial grade formic acid enterprises in China was 3325.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 10.83% compared to the same period last year.

Since December, there has been no significant fluctuation in the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole, and enterprise quotations have remained stable in the range of 3100-3500 yuan/ton. In recent times, the upstream sulfuric acid market prices have fallen first and then stabilized, while the upstream methanol market has narrowed and stabilized. The cost support is average, and downstream inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand. The market trading performance is stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on December 7th, industrial grade 90% formic acid enterprises quoted around 3700-4000 yuan/ton, and on December 7th, industrial grade 94% formic acid enterprises quoted around 4200-4500 yuan/ton.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is not significant, and enterprise quotations are mainly stable. Market transactions are in high demand, and it is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have continued to decline recently. On December 5th, the rare earth index was 487 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 51.64% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 79.70% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have all declined. As of the 6th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 580000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.11%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 472500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.07%; The price of neodymium oxide is 482500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 1.53%; The price of neodymium metal was 612500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.61%; The price of praseodymium metal is 600000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 3.23%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 485000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.02%.

The domestic light rare earth market has continued to decline, with recent transactions mainly in demand. Due to a small number of new orders and low purchasing willingness of enterprises, the overall decline in the market is difficult to change. Recently, some companies have reduced production and ensured prices, while downstream purchases are on demand. Metal spot transactions are under pressure, and downstream magnetic material companies have a low willingness to purchase, mainly relying on inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, leading to a continuous decline in rare earth market prices. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, and the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is still inverted. The transaction situation is poor, and the decrease in procurement has led to a continuous decline in the domestic light rare earth market prices.

According to statistics, in October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 989000 and 956000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 5.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.2% and 33.5%, respectively. From January to October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 7.352 million and 7.28 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China imported a total of 145000 tons of rare earths from January to October 2023, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%. The significant increase in imported rare earth raw materials has impacted the domestic rare earth market, causing a decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.