According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 22nd, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6950-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8300-8700 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

International crude oil prices fell widely. On November 21st, WTI December crude oil futures closed down 0.52 US dollars, a decrease of nearly 0.75%, at 68.87 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for January closed down $0.50, down over 0.68%, at $72.81 per barrel.

With the end of the shopping festival, the terminal textile industry focuses on the urgent need for e-commerce orders, the clearance of raw fabric inventory, and the procurement of raw materials. Most manufacturers have reported that the order volume this year is lower than in previous years, and there is some support for domestic demand for thermal insulation fabrics. Considering the subsequent tariff issues for foreign trade orders, some orders are issued in advance but can only be processed on an average basis. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with few spot transactions and light production and sales of polyester filament.

Overall, there is no significant positive boost in the filament market, coupled with increasing supply pressure. It is expected that the polyester filament market will remain stagnant in the short term, with fluctuations ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has been operating strongly this week. Last Thursday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6660 yuan/ton, and this Thursday the average price is 6700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.6%.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market has been operating strongly. The acetone market for raw materials has risen, and cost support is still acceptable. The ex factory prices of the main factories have been raised, and the mentality of the holders is good, which has boosted the market and actively pushed up the price. Downstream inquiries are active, and actual orders are cautious. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. Most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton, while prices in South China are around 7050 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has increased this week. Last Thursday, the average price of acetone was 5837.5 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 5890 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.9%. At the beginning of the week, the port inventory dropped to 28500 tons, and some terminal factories tendered for replenishment. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the mentality of traders was boosted, resulting in an upward shift in offers.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fluctuated within the range this week. Last Thursday, the average price of propylene in China was 6770.75 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 6768.25 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.04%. At present, upstream factories are experiencing differentiated shipments, while downstream factories are purchasing at a lower discount. It is expected that the market will experience fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market is operating strongly this week. Acetone market prices have risen, propylene has fluctuated within the range, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream inquiries are active, procurement is cautious, and demand is the main focus. It is expected that the isopropanol market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

Since mid November, the phenol market in mainstream regions across the country has been rising, with an average increase of around 300 yuan/ton. As of the 20th, the phenol market in East China has been quoted at 7900 yuan/ton. This upward trend is mainly due to the lack of replenishment of imported cargo, delayed arrival of domestic cargo at the port, and continuous shipment of goods. The market’s spot circulation resources are limited, and the average price within the month is high, which has boosted the sentiment of traders. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price on November 20th was 7887.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.54% since November.

The port inventory is low, and recently the inventory at Jiangyin Port has fluctuated between 10000 and 15000 tons. From the perspective of domestic trade, the average inventory arriving in Hengyang is 1 ship per week, so it is difficult to accumulate inventory in Hengyang. Changshu often directly connects with downstream production enterprises, with limited circulation, while Zhangjiagang has less inventory. After mid month, the shortage of spot resources and the high average contract price have become the main driving force for the upward trend.

The overall operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has declined. Sinopec Mitsui and Qingdao Bay facilities have temporarily shut down, with a production level of 70-80%. In addition, Shandong Fuyu phenol has not yet been circulating in the market, and there is not much pressure on spot supply, which has become a favorable factor supporting supply side price increases. In the later stage, by the end of November, Changchun Chemical, Qingdao Bay, and Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone plants will resume operation. The operating level of domestic phenol ketone plants is expected to gradually increase. Although the supply has increased, the restarted plants will also be mostly matched with downstream bisphenol A production. It is expected that the short-term impact on spot supply will not be significant.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7850 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7800-7850 yuan/ton. As of the 20th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

On the demand side, with the continuous rise of phenol, terminal enterprises are mainly driven by rigid demand and cautious in chasing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 8900-9100 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Business Society expects the phenol market to remain strong in the short term, with little pressure on spot supply. However, downstream companies are cautious about chasing high prices, and there is limited room for the market to continue rising.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been weak and adjusted since November. As of November 19th, the average market price in East China was 4797 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from the beginning of the month.

In terms of supply, PTA has started to accumulate inventory. According to statistics, the current social inventory is around 4.01 million tons, and maintenance facilities have been restarted one after another, increasing expectations of loose supply. The current industry operating rate is around 85%.

International crude oil prices have fallen sharply, providing downward support for PTA costs. As of November 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.17 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.30 per barrel. There is an expectation of further increase in PX supply in Asia, and the pressure on domestic PX inventory is rising. In recent years, negotiations for annual contracts have begun, and a cautious trading atmosphere is evident.

The current off-season for polyester demand has led to a decrease in rigid demand for PTA. With the end of the shopping festival, the terminal textile industry focuses on the urgent need for e-commerce orders, the clearance of raw fabric inventory, and the procurement of raw materials. Most manufacturers have reported that the order volume this year is lower than in previous years, and there is some support for domestic demand for thermal insulation fabrics. Considering the subsequent tariff issues for foreign trade orders, some orders are issued in advance but can only be processed on an average basis. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined to 76%.

Business analysts believe that with the end of the peak consumption season, demand will be weak in the future, and there is an expectation of weak supply and demand. Due to the weakening of cost support, it is expected that PTA prices will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 11th to 18th, MTBE prices rose from 5275 yuan/ton to 5412 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.61% during the cycle, remaining stable on a month on month basis and a year-on-year decrease of 16.89%. The price of MTBE in the domestic market has fluctuated and risen. As the delivery period of gasoline shipments approaches, the enthusiasm of industry players for purchasing relevant gasoline raw materials has significantly increased. MTBE manufacturers have followed suit and pushed up prices. Coupled with the gradual shutdown of some facilities, the favorable trend of reduced resource supply has begun to emerge, and MTBE prices have significantly increased.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, and the main negative factors are market concerns that Trump’s future policies will drag down the economy and demand, as well as push up US crude oil production, coupled with easing tensions in the Middle East. As of November 15th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.04 per barrel, a decrease of $1.52 or 2.1%.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, the temperature in northern regions is gradually decreasing, and the private car travel rate of the public is increasing. At the same time, there are still some gasoline ship orders supporting it, and industry players still have a certain degree of enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: The operating rate of the equipment has increased. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 15th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $3/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $680.99-682.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $2.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $797.49-797.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $11.48/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $754.82-755.18/ton (213.13-213.23 cents/gallon).

In the future forecast, the shutdown of some manufacturers in the early stage will still affect the recent production, and the short-term resource supply is still relatively tight. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to operate at a relatively high level in the short term.