According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 3rd, the average price of white oil in the market was 8400 yuan/ton, and on March 28th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8400 yuan/ton, indicating stable price operation.

In terms of cost

This week, crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, with insufficient positive market news.

In terms of supply and demand

Some large manufacturers of light white oil have raised prices for individual products, and overall product prices remain stable. Downstream manufacturers generally restock.

Future Market Forecast

There is no positive support in the pre holiday news, but based on some large factories raising their prices, it is expected that the white oil market will remain stable and have a downward trend in the near future.

According to the market analysis system of Shengyishe, after falling to its lowest point at the end of March, n-butanal experienced a slight rebound in early April. As of April 2, the reference price of Shengyishe’s n-butanal was 8040 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from 8003 yuan/ton on March 29.

In terms of raw material propylene, propylene has stopped falling and the market has rebounded. The market performance is still good, and the atmosphere on the market is warm. The factory’s firm offer provides support for the price of n-butanal.

In terms of downstream n-butanol, although the n-butanol market experienced a recovery in late March, the recovery momentum was not significant compared to the continuous deep decline in early March. The current trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is still good, and downstream continued to purchase on demand and buy on dips.

According to data analysts from Business Society, the favorable raw material side supports the cessation of decline in the butyraldehyde market, while downstream markets gradually recover. In the short term, the domestic butyraldehyde market will mainly adjust and operate within a certain range.

Zinc prices rose first and then fell in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 1st, the price of zinc was 20832 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to March 1st’s zinc price of 20586 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.19%; Compared to March 14th, the zinc price of 21434 yuan/ton decreased by 2.81%. The production of zinc mines has decreased, the concentration of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the supply of zinc in March has decreased. The macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, and the support for the increase in zinc prices is insufficient. In March, zinc prices first rose and then fell.

The supply of zinc in the market is decreasing

According to foreign news on March 6th, South Korea’s Young Poong Corp stated that it has reduced the production of its Seokpo zinc smelter by one-fifth. The Seokpo zinc smelter produces 400000 tons annually and is the sixth largest zinc smelter in the world. A large-scale production reduction or complete closure will reduce the expected surplus of 300000 tons this year, leading to a shortage in the zinc market. Expected reduction in zinc supply in the market.

Luoping Zinc Electric announced that on March 7, 2024, the company received a production shutdown notice from the Luoping County Emergency Management Bureau. According to the production suspension notice, the company’s Fule Lead Zinc Mine will cease all production activities from today onwards. In addition to the shutdown of Fule Lead Zinc Mine, other mines of Luoping Zinc Power are also in a state of shutdown. Industry insiders have pointed out that due to the increasingly strict regulatory environment, the resumption of production at the Luoping Zinc Electricity Mine may take more than a year for the relevant mines to complete. In addition to Luoping Zinc Power, there are plans for smelter maintenance and production reduction in regions such as Hunan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Liaoning, and Gansu, which are expected to affect a reduction of nearly 30000 tons. Zinc smelters have reduced production and increased demand, leading to a decrease in zinc supply in the market.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of zinc concentrate in China in January 2024 was 395900 tons, a decrease of 10.4% month on month and 8.18% year-on-year. In February 2024, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 251200 tons, a decrease of 36.56% month on month and 46.69% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate from January to February 2024 was 647100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.28%. The import volume of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the supply of zinc concentrate is tight. The processing cost of zinc concentrate decreased in March, and the supply of zinc in the market was tight.

The demand growth in the zinc market is lower than expected

China has entered the traditional consumption peak season of “gold, silver, and four”, with expected recovery in demand, boosting the rebound of non-ferrous metals. During the two sessions, the market waited for positive news, and overall macroeconomic sentiment rebounded. The domestic macroeconomic situation was positive, while the non-ferrous metal market was positive.

During the Two Sessions, environmental protection in the north has imposed production restrictions, and galvanized processing enterprises have reduced production significantly. The current production restrictions have not yet ended, and the consumer recovery is not as expected. Downstream sentiment towards accepting goods is not good, and there is no significant improvement in spot trading. The downstream production of zinc in the Tianjin market is limited by environmental protection, and the order volume is relatively poor, resulting in insufficient willingness to purchase zinc ingots; The transaction volume of zinc ingots in the Foshan market is also very low. Overall, the environmental impact has led to poor downstream production of zinc and lower than expected demand in the zinc market.

The Swiss central bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut and adjusted the benchmark interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%. The sudden shift in monetary policy by the Swiss central bank may lead to a series of chain reactions. The US PMI data released by S&P Global and Research shows that the initial value of Markit’s manufacturing PMI in March was 52.5, and the initial value of Markit’s comprehensive PMI in March was 52.2. The US manufacturing business activity in March showed strong performance, setting the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. In the past two weeks since mid March, the US dollar index has continued to rise, with macroeconomic recovery. However, inflationary pressure still exists, and the macroeconomic weakness in the zinc market remains. The demand growth in the zinc market is not satisfactory.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, in terms of supply, there were many reports of zinc mines and zinc smelters shutting down and reducing production in the international and domestic markets in March, leading to a significant decrease in zinc supply and stimulating an increase in zinc prices; However, in terms of demand, March was originally the traditional peak season for consumption, but during the Chinese People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, northern environmental protection limited production. In addition, the recovery of enterprises after the conference was less than expected, and the macroeconomic recovery in the international market was less than expected, resulting in poor demand growth in the zinc market. In the future, the domestic zinc market is accumulating reserves, and the environmental protection restrictions on production in the zinc market are gradually slowing down. The supply and demand expectations for zinc in the market are increasing. However, as the Qingming Festival approaches, the growth of demand for zinc in the market is limited, and it is expected that zinc prices will be weak and volatile in the future.

Ethylene glycol prices fell by 1.92% in March

The price of ethylene glycol was weak in March. According to data from Business Society, as of March 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.92% from the average price of 4605 yuan/ton in the East China market on March 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4500-4730 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot manufacturers in Central China have a price range of 4500 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

The price of ethylene glycol in April may continue to fluctuate weakly

The price of ethylene glycol in April may continue to fluctuate weakly, for the following reasons:

1. The supply side game intensifies. There is an expected contraction in domestic ethylene glycol supply in April. The supply side is expected to concentrate on delivering 2.55 million tons of maintenance equipment from the end of March to April; In terms of overseas imports, due to the favorable price difference between domestic and international markets, the number of arrivals to ports has increased. The market expects that the import of ethylene glycol will increase to 500000/55000 tons respectively from March to April. In early April, the import volume decreased month on month, but the total supply decreased month on month, and the overall supply remained relatively high in absolute terms.

2. In March, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port began to shift from the previous state of destocking to accumulation, and in April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port may continue to accumulate. The market expects that in terms of overseas imports, due to the favorable price difference between domestic and foreign markets, there will be an increase in port arrivals. The market expects that the import of ethylene glycol will increase to 500000/55000 tons respectively from March to April. As of March 28th, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 839000 tons, an increase of 33600 tons compared to 805400 tons on March 21st; Compared to the low point in March (March 7th), the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 702100 tons, with an increase of 136900 tons in inventory.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises is 7550.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

In March, the market for polyethylene glycol 400 remained stable with minor fluctuations. As of March 27th, the quotation for some imported PEG400 in the East China market is based on 7700-7900 yuan/ton, while the quotation for some imported PEG400 in the South China market is based on 7800-8000 yuan/ton, for reference only. Actual negotiations are the main focus.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side:

Ethylene oxide: In the production process of polyethylene glycol, ethylene oxide is one of the main raw materials and has a significant impact on the polyethylene glycol market. In March, supported by supply side contraction, the ethylene oxide market maintained a high trend, and costs faced strong support from the polyethylene glycol market. Currently, the utilization rate of ethylene oxide production capacity is at a low level, and downstream cautious observation and follow-up may continue to support the polyethylene glycol market in the short term.

Supply and demand side:

In March, the market supply and demand remained relatively stable, and the demand for polyethylene glycol was widely used. The downstream water reducing agent industry followed up relatively slowly, and the atmosphere for new orders in the market was flat. The downstream pharmaceutical and daily chemical industries maintained stable demand, while the downstream textile industry was in the traditional peak season of “gold, silver, and four”. The enthusiasm for inquiries was still good, and the overall market transactions were mainly based on rigid demand.

Future Market Forecast:

According to polyethylene glycol analysts from Business Society, the trend of the domestic polyethylene glycol market in March was mainly influenced by the raw material ethylene oxide, with downstream inquiries and purchases mainly in demand. The market atmosphere is relatively stable, and it is expected that in April, the trend of polyethylene glycol may follow the raw material ethylene oxide, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.