Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has remained strong at a high level. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on April 23rd, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 22900.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

Recently, the adipic acid market has been undergoing consolidation and operation. At the end of the month, the activity of supply and demand in the market decreased, with fewer new orders and a cautious market atmosphere. In terms of hexamethylene diamine, it maintains a high level of sustained operation, and the support for overseas large factories to raise prices at the beginning of the month is still strong; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market is still acceptable.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines has remained low. The overall industry load has limited changes around the process. The production of the enterprise is stable, and there is no obvious accumulation of inventory. The supplier’s price adjustment operation is clear, and the support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

Recently, as the end of the month approaches, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises have been following a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations being focused on production. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. The trading firm’s offer is stable. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has remained strong at a high level. The raw material market still supports the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 22, the quotation for isooctanol was 9640 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the quotation of 9520 yuan/ton on April 15; Compared to April 1st, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and decreased by 4.17% to 10060 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, while the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and risen. With cost support, the downward pressure on isooctanol has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; Downstream customers still have purchasing enthusiasm, while iso octanol manufacturers are actively shipping. The positive support for iso octanol is significant.

This week, the price of propylene rose first and then fell

According to the propylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 22, the propylene price was 6870.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the propylene price of 6892.60 yuan/ton on April 14; Compared to April 1st, the price of propylene fluctuated and increased by 0.32% to 6848.60 yuan/ton. The price of crude oil continues to rise, while the cost of propylene increases. In April, the price of propylene fluctuated slightly and rose; Downstream production of propylene has decreased, downstream customers have just needed to purchase, propylene enterprises have sufficient supply, propylene enterprises have decreased their willingness to raise prices, and propylene prices have fallen from high levels.

This week, the downstream of the isooctanol industry chain fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the isooctanol industry chain has fluctuated and risen this week. The downstream products of the isooctanol industry chain have all experienced varying degrees of increase, and the demand for isooctanol has increased. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. Downstream demand is rising, and the support for the rise of isooctanol in the future is increasing.

Future expectations

According to analysts from Business Society’s octanol product data, in terms of cost, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, while the cost support for isooctanol weakened; On the supply side, iso octanol manufacturers have low inventory and smooth shipments; In terms of demand, the prices of downstream products in the isooctanol industry chain have fluctuated and increased this week, with increased support from downstream demand. In the future, the supply of octanol is stable and demand is increasing, with insufficient cost support. It is expected that the price of octanol will fluctuate slightly and rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has declined this week (April 15-19). As of April 19, the domestic polyester staple fiber market price was 7672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% compared to the beginning of the week.

At present, the environment in which crude oil operates is relatively complex, and the performance of oil prices is also relatively stagnant and anxious. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $82.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $87.11 per barrel. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In addition, given that the current geopolitical tensions have not escalated, crude oil has the potential to mitigate risk premiums and reshape valuation expectations. But the risk has not been lifted, coupled with the start of the North American driving season, gasoline demand is expected to rise, which will provide support for oil prices. Overall, the supply and demand game in the oil market will intensify in the short term, and there is a greater possibility of oil prices maintaining high volatility.

There are still some maintenance plans for PX devices in Asia, but Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical, with a total of 4.5 million tons of devices, will resume operation. Therefore, the overall supply of PX is gradually recovering, and the demand side is performing well due to the expected restart and load increase of PTA factories. It is necessary to be cautious of the announcement of subsequent maintenance arrangements for some PTA factories. The high inventory situation of domestic PX continues, and prices are expected to fall and consolidate.

This week, the domestic PTA spot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. As of April 19th, the average market price in East China was 5948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the beginning of the week. Looking ahead to the future, our own supply will also increase. Jiatong Energy may restart a 2.5 million ton PTA unit on April 23, while Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton PTA unit is currently operating at around 80%, with plans to increase its load starting next week. In addition, there are currently no other planned large-scale PTA device maintenance or restarts, and attention still needs to be paid to unplanned maintenance.

Downstream yarn prices have been weakly adjusted. Currently, the reference price for the 32S pure polyester yarn market in Shandong is 12325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 0.60% compared to last week’s price of 12400 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been a decrease in orders and overall shipments have slightly weakened. Terminal purchases are based on demand, and some specifications of the yarn factory have been moderately discounted, with actual order negotiations being the main focus. Considering the gradual shift towards the off-season, as well as the May Day holiday, downstream production reduction and holiday expectations, as well as poor new orders, demand expectations will be weak.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the cost and demand side of the market are shifting downwards, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will still be weakly adjusted.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 18th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, and on April 11th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3470 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

The shortage of domestic bauxite supply has not changed, and there is currently no news of resuming production in the suspended mines in China. The amount of imported minerals in China has increased. According to customs data and import sources, the explosion at the Guinea oil depot did not have a significant impact on the shipment of bauxite. The rainy season in Australia is not conducive to the shipment of bauxite, with Australian imports of bauxite decreasing by 42% month on month in February. Some alumina companies in certain regions have experienced reduced production due to a shortage of ore supply, but due to the domestic alumina industry’s decent profits, companies have a high willingness to increase production, resulting in some supply increases.

In terms of supply and demand

Due to the high aluminum prices and considerable profits, Yunnan Electrolytic Aluminum Plant has a positive attitude towards resuming production among eligible enterprises. In terms of news, the UK and the US have imposed sanctions on Russian metals, including aluminum. There is a certain level of panic in the market, which has pushed up the Shanghai aluminum futures price. The aluminum oxide futures price has been strengthened due to the emotional impact. However, after the news was digested, both Shanghai aluminum and aluminum oxide futures prices have rebounded.

Future Market Forecast

The subjective willingness of alumina enterprises to increase production has increased, and their production capacity is currently experiencing a slight increase. It is expected that the price of alumina will fluctuate and adjust in the short term.

Technical prediction of ethanol market: the downward trend is difficult to change

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since February 18, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is only 5.86%.

At present, ethanol prices continue to decline, reaching a historical low in nearly three years. The monitoring level is one year oversold, two years oversold, and three years oversold. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ethanol in the past three years is 6878.45 yuan/kg, with a median value of 6772.92 yuan/kg, a minimum value of 5962.50 yuan/kg, and a maximum value of 7583.33 yuan/kg. The low price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 0 yuan/kg, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is -1620.83 yuan/kg.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 8th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price dropped from 6000 yuan/ton to 5962 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.62%, a month on month decrease of 4.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.02%. The domestic ethanol market continues to decline, with high inventory levels in large factories and strong shipping sentiment, resulting in continuously refreshing prices for terminal purchases.

On the cost side, as the temperature gradually rises, the difficulty of storing corn has increased. In addition, a large amount of imported corn has arrived at the port to supplement domestic market demand, and the intention of grain trading entities in production areas to liquidate their exports continues to increase. The overall supply of domestic corn market continues to be loose, while the breeding industry market remains at a low level. Deep processing enterprises have relatively sufficient corn inventory, and the pressure of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic corn market remains weak. The overall pressure on domestic corn market prices is weak. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. Short term stable supply of corn ethanol, East China cassava ethanol, and coal based ethanol. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, there is no possibility of repair in downstream demand for edible alcohol, and the chemical terminal just needs to replenish it; The main business of fuel ethanol and local refining needs to replenish inventory as needed, and centralized stocking may occur before May Day. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Market forecast: By the end of April, the maintenance plans of each factory will be fulfilled, which will have a certain positive impact on the market; But on the demand side, downstream demand for food is not smooth, the purchasing atmosphere is flat, and large factory inventories are high. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly weak.