According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 19, 2023, the domestic market price reference for organic silicon DMC is 14760 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to January 10; Compared to January 1st (organic silicon DMC reference 13940 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that during the mid month period (1.10 to 1.19), the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market remained stable at a high level. In early January, the domestic organic silicon DMC market experienced a broad upward trend, with high-end prices breaking through the 15000 yuan/ton mark, an increase of 5.88% in the first half of the year. In the mid stage, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a stable operation after an increase, with overall price fluctuations not significant. Some factory orders were scheduled for the early Spring Festival, and supply side pressure was relatively low. Many factories maintained strong quotations. At present, the overall inquiry atmosphere in the downstream of organic silicon DMC has weakened. After a round of buying up orders in the early stage, most of the downstream orders are in the period of digesting raw materials, and new orders are mostly in demand. As of January 19th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is based on around 14600-15000 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

After a round of upward movement at the beginning of the month, the overall performance of the organic silicon DMC market has returned to calm, and downstream new single markets have also increased some wait-and-see sentiment. However, currently, the organic silicon DMC market still has support from low supply side inventory. Therefore, the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly continue to operate steadily, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Product name: Titanium dioxide

Latest price on January 17th: 16350 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On January 17th, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices remained stable. At present, the quoted price for rutile type titanium dioxide is around 15700-17100 yuan/ton. The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. At present, the manufacturer’s inventory is low, mainly issuing early orders, and the enterprise’s quotation is temporarily stable.

Prediction: It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will remain unchanged.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region fluctuated and increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong region increased from 12962.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 13000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.29%. Weekend prices increased by 32.20% year-on-year. On January 15th, the Isooctanol Commodity Index was 95.04, a decrease of 0.55 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.88% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 170.38% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of Shandong isooctanol have slightly increased their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6638.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6670.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.49%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.00% in weekend prices. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market situation of isooctanol, the DOP market price fluctuated and increased this week. The DOP price increased from 12091.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12120 yuan/ton on the weekend, an increase of 0.23%, and the weekend price increased by 20.96% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively increasing their purchases of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In mid to late January, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA market has been fluctuating and declining since January. As of January 15th, the market price in East China was 5753 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.98% compared to the beginning of the month. PTA supply is sufficient, dragging down prices. In addition, international crude oil has high volatility, but overall it shows a downward trend, which weakens the support for PTA costs.

In the crude oil market, the disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the situation is not clear. There is no sign of cooling in the short term, and oil prices still receive significant support. However, the US oil inventory has accumulated, and the market is once again concerned about economic weakness, which has significantly dragged down oil prices. Therefore, under the long short game, crude oil prices are mainly volatile. As of January 12th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.68 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $78.29 per barrel.

Since January, from the perspective of PTA supply side, the production capacity operating rate has remained stable with little change, and the industry operating rate has remained around 82%. The pressure of sufficient supply of goods still exists. Among them, the 2 million tons/year installation of Yisheng Hainan will be inspected on December 25, 2023, and will be restarted to increase the load around January 15, 2024, or to increase the pressure of PTA supply.

The downstream polyester operating load is around 84%, and there are currently no plans for maintenance or restart of other large-scale polyester plants. The polyester factory has entered the annual maintenance phase, and production will slowly decline. Currently, as the Spring Festival maintenance period approaches, the load will further decrease. Although terminal demand has significantly weakened, there has not been a large-scale shutdown in the downstream. Currently, the comprehensive production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 70%, and there has been no significant decline. Some enterprises may purchase raw materials at low prices in stages.

According to analysts from Business Society, the PTA market has recently declined, and the enthusiasm of polyester factories to replenish goods has increased compared to the previous period. The strengthening of short-term support for PTA demand may improve the pressure on sufficient supply of PTA goods. But considering that the Spring Festival is approaching, most downstream factories will be shut down for a month and a half, and demand is expected to weaken. In the crude oil market, the situation in the Middle East is still turbulent and there is no sign of cooling in the short term, which may continue to fluctuate. Therefore, overall, PTA will experience a short-term warming adjustment, and prices will also weaken in the future as demand drags down.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on January 12th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe glycerol (glycerol) was 4575.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the same period last week.

 
Influencing factors:

The domestic glycerol market has been affected by the impact of imported glycerol and cost factors, resulting in weak and stable glycerol prices. The downstream market demand for epichlorohydrin is weak, and manufacturers have low operating rates. Most enterprises purchase on demand. At present, there is no improvement in the market and it is operating weakly and steadily.

Analysts predict that the domestic glycerol market will mainly operate weakly and steadily in the future.