1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 29th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7466.67 yuan/ton. In April, the price curve of cyclohexane showed a continuous upward trend. In April, the supply side of the cyclohexane market tightened, spot inventory remained scarce and operated at a low level. Factory equipment maintenance led to a decrease in production capacity, good downstream demand, positive market transaction atmosphere, and mainstream cyclohexane factory prices continued to rise, resulting in a stable and strong overall market trend.

2、 Market analysis

In April, the domestic market price of cyclohexane showed a continuous upward trend. Due to the influence of international crude oil prices, the upstream raw material pure benzene price of cyclohexane fluctuated in April. The overall price of pure benzene in April showed an upward trend, with good market demand and a shortage of spot supply. Inventory continued to operate at a low level, and the trading atmosphere on the market warmed up. The focus of negotiations was high, and the downstream procurement atmosphere was positive. In April, the production of cyclohexane decreased, and some enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of cyclohexane. This is the main reason for the price increase.

In terms of import and export: China’s total import of cyclohexane in March was 0.04 tons, a decrease of 95.67% compared to February’s import volume of 0.923 tons. The import amount in March was 3130 tons/US dollar, and the export amount in March was 4097.1 tons, a decrease of 47.23% compared to February’s import volume of 7763.58 tons. The export amount in February was 3995381 tons/US dollar. The main importing countries for cyclohexane in China are Germany and the United States, and the main exporting countries are Thailand. From the perspective of shipping and receiving areas, the export provinces of cyclohexane in China are mainly Fujian Province, Shandong Province, and Liaoning Province. Fujian Province has a large production capacity for cyclohexane in China and is also a major region for cyclohexane exports.

In terms of cost: In March, upstream pure benzene fluctuated and the overall market showed a downward trend, mainly due to the influence of crude oil prices. In March, pure benzene prices were in a weak consolidation stage. Starting from mid March, crude oil prices rose, and pure benzene had some support on the cost side. Cyclohexane provided strong support on the cost side, and the price continued to rise, showing a strong trend. In late March, crude oil prices returned to stability, and pure benzene prices were in a weak consolidation stage. Cyclohexane prices showed a weak and strong trend.

In terms of demand: In April, downstream product caprolactam prices first rose and then fell, with sufficient raw material inventory. Currently, the caprolactam market is gradually releasing maintenance plans, and the overall market operating rate is around 76%. Currently, the supply of spot goods has slightly decreased, and manufacturers have shown a reluctance to sell. However, in the week leading up to the end of the month, although there is some support on the cost side, supply has increased and inventory is running at a high level, while demand is insufficient and consumption is slow. The negative factors brought by supply and demand dominate, and the caprolactam market price has a weak downward trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that the current downstream market procurement atmosphere is positive, and the upstream pure benzene price is operating at a high level. There is still some support for the cost of cyclohexane in the short term. Currently, inventory is operating at a low level, and some enterprise facilities have not yet restarted. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain a strong trend in the short term, with the mainstream price range being 7500 yuan/ton.

Low level consolidation of plasticizer DOP prices in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the price of DOP was 9850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% from the DOP price of 9890 yuan/ton on April 1st. From January to February, the prices of plasticizers stabilized at a high level, while in March, the prices of plasticizer DOP plummeted significantly. In April, the prices of plasticizer DOP stabilized at a low level.

In April, the price of isooctanol fluctuated slightly and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9740 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 3.18% compared to the price of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, octanol did not continue its downward trend in March, while the price of isooctanol remained low and consolidated. The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and consolidated, and cost support was insufficient. The downward pressure on isooctanol increased, and the upward momentum weakened; Downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm, with limited support from isooctanol.

In April, the price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of April 28th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.98% compared to the fluctuating price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. Cost support, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased in the first and second half of the year; Poor demand has led to a decline in the price of phthalic anhydride in the latter half of the year, while the high price of phthalic anhydride in Naifa has fallen, and the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries has weakened.

Downstream enterprises have less than expected maintenance

In April, downstream enterprises began spring maintenance one after another, with an increase in enterprise maintenance. This year, the demand for plastic products in the market has been sluggish, and the order situation is lower than expected, resulting in limited growth in demand for plasticizers. There is still downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future. In April, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased month on month, but the maintenance of enterprises did not meet expectations, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises increased year-on-year. The maintenance is mainly concentrated in mid April, and in the latter half of the year, the maintenance enterprises gradually recover, with a slow increase in production and strong demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and falls, the price of phthalic anhydride first rises and then falls, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreases; In terms of supply, the high starting point of plasticizer DOP is stable, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient; In terms of demand, PVC manufacturers conducted centralized maintenance in April, resulting in a decrease in PVC production. However, downstream enterprises did not meet expectations in maintenance, and the support for the increase in demand for plasticizer DOP still exists. In the future, the cost support for plasticizer DOP is insufficient, and there is significant demand support. It is expected that DOP prices will consolidate at a low level in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong increased in April. At the beginning of the month, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 1212.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48%. The lowest point on April 10th was 1197.50 yuan/ton, and the current price has increased by 2.18% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

In April, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has fluctuated less in the past three months, and this month the market has bottomed out and rebounded. As of April 25th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1180-1300 yuan/ton. In April, the raw material methanol market fluctuated upwards, and the price of formaldehyde basically followed the changes in methanol. However, downstream purchases remained in demand, and the receiving sentiment was poor. Formaldehyde was weak in following the rise, and the market slightly rose.

Upstream methanol situation: In April, the domestic methanol market rose, with a decrease in domestic methanol supply but little change in demand. In addition, some downstream companies began pre holiday stocking before the May Day holiday, and production enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The domestic methanol market continued to rise and operate mainly. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has fallen significantly, with poor cost support. Some formaldehyde production enterprises have lowered their equipment load ahead of the off-season. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China on April 24th was 12975 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 2.17% compared to the average market price of 13262 yuan/ton on April 15th.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market price of caprolactam has been continuously declining. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. Maintenance of caprolactam units in some enterprises has led to a decrease in market supply. Downstream procurement demand is weak, with low price transactions being the main focus. As of April 24th, the weekly settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 13600 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Cost side

Raw material pure benzene market. Recently, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased. As of April 24th, the reference price for pure benzene is 8750.50 yuan/ton, while the price for Sinopec pure benzene is 8800 yuan/ton. (Price synchronization in Shandong and Hebei regions)

Demand side

Downstream PA6 market. Recently, the domestic PA6 market has continued to decline, with most spot prices being lowered. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable and small, and terminal enterprises are in urgent need of stocking up. Some May Day reserve warehouse demand is gradually being released. As of April 24th, the reference price for domestic PA6 is 14712.50 yuan/ton.

Supply side

Recently, some caprolactam units have resumed maintenance, leading to an increase in spot market supply and weakened supply side support. The situation of oversupply in the market has increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the recent trend of caprolactam market has declined. The cost pressure is high, and the supply and demand side is weak. The game between cost and supply and demand increases the negative factors. It is expected that the short-term market trend of caprolactam will continue to decline.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has remained strong at a high level. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on April 23rd, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 22900.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

Recently, the adipic acid market has been undergoing consolidation and operation. At the end of the month, the activity of supply and demand in the market decreased, with fewer new orders and a cautious market atmosphere. In terms of hexamethylene diamine, it maintains a high level of sustained operation, and the support for overseas large factories to raise prices at the beginning of the month is still strong; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market is still acceptable.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines has remained low. The overall industry load has limited changes around the process. The production of the enterprise is stable, and there is no obvious accumulation of inventory. The supplier’s price adjustment operation is clear, and the support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

Recently, as the end of the month approaches, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises have been following a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations being focused on production. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. The trading firm’s offer is stable. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has remained strong at a high level. The raw material market still supports the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily in the short term.