According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market in January was weak and fell by nearly 5%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 816 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.9%.

 

Poor terminal demand, oscillation and decline in hydrogen peroxide market in January

 

Since January, the terminal paper market has declined, and the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased by the paper and printing industry has decreased, resulting in a sluggish market. At the beginning of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market weakened and the price slightly declined. In the second week, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stopped for maintenance, and the supply became tight. The terminal caprolactam market was operating at a high level, and the hydrogen peroxide market saw an upward trend. The price returned to the front line of 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.65%.

 

Starting from mid month, the terminal paper market has continued to decline, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the paper and printing industry has declined. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lack confidence in maintaining prices, and the market is slow to sell. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market is mainly weak and downward. The mainstream quotation in Shandong region is around 800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Anhui region is 900 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 20 yuan/ton.

 

At the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with the mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong dropping to 750 yuan/ton, and the hydrogen peroxide price in Anhui region dropping to 830 yuan/ton. The terminal demand continues to be sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market is mainly weak and declining.

 

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday in February, terminal demand is still weak, and the future hydrogen peroxide market will mainly operate weakly.

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Recently (1.5-1.26), the acrylonitrile market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87% from 9762 yuan/ton on the 5th. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9200 to 9500 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has increased, and the cost has strengthened the support for acrylonitrile; As the end of the lunar calendar approaches, the main downstream ABS production has dropped to around 65%, leading to a decrease in purchases of acrylonitrile; The overall supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

 

Recently (1.5-1.26), the production of domestic acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and the supply is still sufficient.

 

Recently (1.5-1.26), the raw material propylene market has risen, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has strengthened. Due to the shutdown of some propylene units in Shandong region, the market atmosphere has improved, and downstream enterprises have actively entered the market. On site inventory has decreased to a low level, and enterprises are actively pushing for an increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the domestic propylene price was 6980 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.16% from 6638 yuan/ton on the 5th.

 

It is understood that since mid to late January, downstream ABS prices have risen but production has gradually decreased to a low level of around 6.5%, resulting in a significant weakening of demand for acrylonitrile; At present, acrylic fiber factories are frequently receiving purchase orders from yarn factories at the beginning of the month, with overall low production and weak demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; The acrylamide industry is operating at a low rate of 40-50%, and the demand for acrylonitrile is weakening. Overall, the current demand for acrylonitrile is weak, and the supply of acrylonitrile is loose, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

 

Market forecast: Business Society acrylonitrile analysts believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still sufficient; The demand side support is weak, and the price of raw material propylene is supported by the increase in equipment maintenance prices, which will provide some support for acrylonitrile. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term.

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According to statistics, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride in 2023 has declined. The price at the beginning of the year was 8062.5 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 7662.5 yuan/ton. The price of phthalic anhydride in 2023 has decreased by 4.96%. The highest price for the year occurred in mid September, with a highest price of 8850 yuan/ton. The lowest price for the year occurred in mid December, with a lowest price of 7400 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 19.59%.

 

From the domestic price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the market trend of phthalic anhydride is declining in 2023. The annual trend shows an “M” shape, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride can be roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid March, when the price trend of phthalic anhydride increases; The second stage is from late March to the end of June, with a downward trend in the phthalic anhydride market; The third stage is from early July to mid September, during which the price of phthalic anhydride rises rapidly; In the fourth stage, from late September to the end of the year, the market price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased.

 

The two periods of increase in domestic phthalic anhydride in 2023 are from the beginning of the year to mid March and from early July to mid September. There are several positive factors, including an increase in raw material crude oil, an increase in the price trend of ortho benzene raw material ortho phthalic anhydride, and a significant increase in cost support. In addition, the maintenance of ortho benzene equipment has led to a tight supply of ortho benzene and an increase in price, which has strengthened the cost support for ortho phthalic anhydride and led to an upward trend in the phthalic anhydride market. The second is the increase in export volume of phthalic anhydride, which provides significant support for the demand for phthalic anhydride. The third is the demand support for downstream plasticizers. During this period, the operating rate of the plasticizer industry has increased, providing strong support for the upstream phthalic anhydride market. The positive support has led to an increase in the price trend of phthalic anhydride during this period.

 

The two stages of decline in the trend of phthalic anhydride market are from late March to the end of June and from late September to the end of the year. On the one hand, due to the prominent supply-demand contradiction, in the early stage, due to the rise of the phthalic anhydride market, some units were put into operation for production, resulting in sufficient domestic spot supply. In addition, with the impact of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, as the industrial naphthalene price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride raw material continues to decline, the cost support for naphthalene phthalic anhydride weakens, and the downstream industry’s loss situation has not significantly improved. The overall operating load has decreased, the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased slowly, and resistance to high prices has increased, The market for phthalic anhydride using ortho benzene method has declined. On the other hand, the market trends of upstream and downstream products have seen a significant decline in the price trend of adjacent benzene at this stage, which has lost cost support for phthalic anhydride and led to a decline in the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the downstream plasticizer industry has suffered serious losses, and there is no active procurement of phthalic anhydride. The demand for phthalic anhydride may be difficult to significantly increase, and the demand side is still under pressure. The combination of negative factors has led to a decline in the market price trend of phthalic anhydride.

 

Overall, the domestic phthalic anhydride market has slightly declined in 2023. With the continuous increase of phthalic anhydride production capacity, domestic production may increase, and market supply may increase, which has a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market. The statistics of domestic phthalic anhydride production capacity in recent years are as follows:

In 2023, there will be an increase in domestic exports of phthalic anhydride, which will provide favorable support for the price of phthalic anhydride. This is mainly due to the oversupply of domestic phthalic anhydride, which has become a major outlet for the market. Moreover, China’s phthalic anhydride is in a global price depression, coupled with India’s mandatory BIS certification of phthalic anhydride in the second half of the year, resulting in a significant increase in China’s phthalic anhydride exports to India in the first half of the year. With the oversupply of domestic phthalic anhydride, the low price advantage of domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride supply also lays a certain guarantee for its impact on overseas markets. It is expected that domestic phthalic anhydride exports will continue to rise in the later stage.

 

Market forecast: The domestic phthalic anhydride market has severe overcapacity, coupled with the continuous increase in production capacity of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, neighboring phthalic anhydride is being suppressed to a certain extent. In addition, the real estate industry has gradually entered a destocking stage in the past two years, and the supply of plasticizers in the plasticizer industry chain is clearly oversupplied. In addition, the process of replacing traditional plasticizers with environmentally friendly plasticizers is still ongoing, and the demand for traditional phthalic anhydride has not significantly increased. However, the increase in export volume has brought certain benefits to the phthalic anhydride market, The combined influence of bullish and bearish factors is expected to result in the highest market price of phthalic anhydride in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the highest price around 9000 yuan/ton and the lowest price possibly appearing in the second quarter, with the lowest price around 6000 yuan/ton.

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Price trend in 2023

 

According to data from Business Society, the average market price of ammonium sulfate on January 1st was 1243 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average market price of ammonium sulfate was 833 yuan/ton. The domestic ammonium sulfate market fell by 32.98% for the whole year of 2023. The highest value of ammonium sulfate for the year was 1240 yuan/ton on February 2nd, and the lowest value for the year was 663 yuan/ton on June 26th.

 

2023 Market Analysis

 

In 2023, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices continued to decline and then fluctuated.

 

The ammonium sulfate market continued to weaken in the first half of 2023, with prices falling continuously. In the first half of the year, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market continued to be weak, with a small amount of downstream purchases and excessive pressure on prices, resulting in weak new order transactions. The export performance of ammonium sulfate is poor, and the market situation continues to be sluggish. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has dropped significantly, and domestic grade ammonium sulfate has followed suit. The continuous weakening of urea prices in the first half of the year has negatively impacted the ammonium sulfate market. Under the influence of bullish and bearish factors, the ammonium sulfate market continued to decline in the first half of the year.

 

In the second half of 2023, the ammonium sulfate market saw mixed ups and downs. The domestic ammonium sulfate market price increased significantly in July. The inventory of ammonium sulfate in the market is low, and manufacturers and distributors are hesitant to sell. The significant increase in urea prices has boosted the nitrogen fertilizer market. The international market for ammonium sulfate is improving, with increased buying. The price of ammonium sulfate began to decline in August. The poor performance of the international market has a negative impact on the domestic market. In September, due to domestic urea export restrictions and India’s release of a new round of bidding news, the international nitrogen fertilizer market surged, and the domestic ammonium sulfate bidding price significantly increased. Export orders have significantly increased, and downstream and distributors are actively acquiring goods. The market price of ammonium sulfate decreased from October to November. The market demand is weak, and downstream and dealer inquiries have decreased. The decrease in international market transaction prices has an impact on the domestic market. The bidding price of domestic ammonium sulfate increased in December. Foreign orders have been followed up with a small amount, and market transactions are good.

 

According to the K-bar chart of 2023, it can be seen that the maximum increase in caprolactam in July 2023 was 53.28%. The largest decline of the year was in November, with a decline of 30.94%.

 

2024 Aftermarket Forecast

 

Supply situation

 

In 2023, the annual production capacity of ammonium sulfate plants that have been put into operation and are about to be put into operation in China will reach over 21 million tons. It is expected to eliminate 52.28 million tons of coking production capacity, add 50.2 million tons, and net eliminate 2.08 million tons in 2023. In 2023, the domestic production capacity of caprolactam increased, with an additional production of 1.26 million tons of ammonium sulfate. From January to October 2023, China’s ammonium sulfate production was 13.66 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.31 million tons. The total production is expected to be around 18 million tons in 2023.

 

Export situation

 

The export volume of ammonium sulfate from China in 2023 was 13.77 million tons, an increase of 11.5% compared to the same period last year. The export amount was 2.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.6% compared to the same period last year in 2022. The proportion of ammonium sulfate exports increased from 53.5% in 2013 to 84.8% in 2023, indicating a high dependence on exports. The export market situation of ammonium sulfate directly affects the domestic market.

 

Demand situation

Ammonium sulfate is mainly used in the field of compound fertilizers, and the proportion of rare earth mining applications has decreased. The demand for other refractory materials, combustion aids, dyeing aids, and other fields has decreased. In 2023, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market steadily increased, with domestic demand growth being smaller than foreign demand. The demand for domestic ammonium sulfate has increased and is mostly used for export.

 

summary

 

In summary, the overall domestic ammonium sulfate market in 2023 is weak and volatile. With the growth of demand for agricultural fertilizers in China, the market demand for ammonium sulfate will continue to increase. The production capacity and process of ammonium sulfate in our country are also constantly improving and innovating. It is expected that the growth momentum of the domestic ammonium sulfate industry will continue in 2024, and the production and export volume will continue to increase. To increase domestic sales and reduce export dependence, it is necessary to achieve diversified development of product consumption.

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According to data monitored by Business Society, carbon black prices have remained stable this week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is 8633 yuan/ton

 

In terms of raw materials, the price of coal tar in the market has fluctuated this week. As of the 12th, the price of coal tar was 3602 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 600 yuan/ton from January 1st, a decrease of 14.7%. Currently, the low price of coal tar has weak support for the cost of carbon black. With the continuous and significant decline in coal tar prices in the early stage, some downstream traders have started to purchase on dips, and downstream factories have gradually turned from losses to profits, increasing their purchasing enthusiasm. The current price of coal tar is fluctuating at a low level, and the rebound momentum of the coal tar market is insufficient. In the short term, the price is in a relatively weak and stable state.

 

Supply and demand side: Compared to the previous period, the operating rate of most carbon black enterprises has not changed much and fluctuates within a narrow range.

 

In terms of terminals: The overall shipment of downstream tire industry is average, with severe accumulation of on-site inventory, and the domestic market demand is becoming increasingly scarce. The transportation volume of goods in the northern logistics industry has significantly decreased, and the demand for tire replacement has sharply decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventory continues to slowly increase. Some tire companies are carrying out equipment maintenance to reduce production burden. The sales pressure in the current tire market is not decreasing, and some companies have launched large-scale promotional policies, mainly focusing on digesting inventory.

 

In the future, the high-temperature coal tar market may continue to be weak, providing poor support for the cost of carbon black; Manufacturers have poor enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black raw materials, and their entry into the market only maintains a basic demand, resulting in a relatively quiet market trading atmosphere. In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is expected to experience weak consolidation of carbon black in the short term due to multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market.

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