According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 4, 2024, the reference factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3900 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, the price remained basically unchanged. Compared with January 1 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 4066 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.10%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first two months of February, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China was mainly weak and stable. Approaching the Spring Festival and entering February, as logistics in some domestic regions began to shut down and stop shipping, downstream stocking of dimethyl carbonate gradually weakened, providing limited market support in terms of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate. In terms of supply, in January, some dimethyl carbonate units were opened on site, and the overall supply side improved. As we enter February, there is not much adjustment in the supply side of dimethyl carbonate. As of February 4th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3600-4100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of future market trends

Currently, as the Spring Festival approaches, the overall trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the exchange is gradually becoming quiet, and the inquiry atmosphere on the exchange is light. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the dimethyl carbonate market will continue to operate steadily, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 2380 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 2370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%, a decrease of 12.35% compared to the same period last year. On February 1st, the commodity index of light soda ash was 121.54, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.73% from the highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and an increase of 92.46% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The prices of soda ash in the central China region are consolidating, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash around 2100-2400 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in the eastern China region are consolidating, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash around 2200-2400 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is around 88%.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass has slightly increased, with an average market price of 22.23 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the week and 22.27 yuan/square meter at the weekend, with a slight increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 12.53%. Glass downstream is purchased on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there was one commodity that rose, three commodities that fell, and three commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include PVC (0.83%); The main commodities falling are: light soda ash (-2.46%), flake alkali (-1.00%), and baking soda (-0.07%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.39%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of light soda ash has remained stable and stable, with little overall fluctuation in spot prices. On the supply side, there is a high level of fluctuation in production, while downstream demand is not active in procurement. At the end of the pre holiday stocking stage, the demand is average, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. It is expected that the operation of caustic soda in the later stage may fluctuate steadily, depending on downstream market demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8300 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in January, the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a weak and declining trend. The propylene glycol market lacks effective support, and the market price center is constantly moving towards a low level. As of January 31, the domestic propylene glycol market price is referenced around 7800-7900 yuan/ton, with a monthly price reduction of about 350-450 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 5%.

Factors influencing the market situation of propylene glycol:

In terms of demand: In early January, the overall trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market was light, with flat new orders on the market and insufficient support from the demand side for propylene glycol. In late January, downstream propylene glycol was stocked in a small area before the holiday, and the demand side slightly improved. However, the wait-and-see sentiment on the market remained unchanged, and the overall support for propylene glycol remained weak. The market continued to operate weakly.

In terms of supply: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, some regions will start production, and the overall supply of propylene glycol will increase. The loose performance of the supply side will put some supply pressure on the propylene glycol market, so the overall supply side will provide limited market support for propylene glycol.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is still strong. The overall mentality of propylene glycol operators is average, and there is some concern about the future market in the market. With the arrival of the holiday, logistics transportation in some regions of China has also begun to shut down one after another. Although downstream demand is generally average, the propylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate limited. According to the propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the overall operation of propylene glycol markets in China will be mainly calm, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the market for dichloromethane has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2277 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from 2307 yuan/ton on the 25th. The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated lower, the price range of liquid chlorine has been consolidated, and the cost support for dichloromethane is weak; The cautious demand for downstream goods before the holiday is gradually weakening, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly increased, but the overall pressure is still acceptable. The dichloromethane market is relatively weak and consolidating, with the mainstream factory price of dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region around 2230-2350 yuan/ton as of January 31.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine has stabilized at a low level. The cost support for dichloromethane is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from 2615 yuan/ton on the 25th. As of January 31st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 250 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous price.

As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream construction is stable, and demand gradually decreases after stocking, weakening support for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to data analysts from Shengyishe Methane Chlorides, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, with little pressure on the supply side and fluctuating costs. Overall, it is expected that the range of dichloromethane market will be mainly adjusted before the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of styrene in Shandong increased in January. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8560.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8810.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.92%. The current price has increased by 2.44% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene increased in January. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, with little fluctuation in the market this month. The main reason for the increase is the continuous rise in international oil prices, strong cost support, maintenance of styrene plants, temporary reduction in supply, early stocking of some downstream goods near the Spring Festival, good spot transactions of styrene, and a slight upward trend in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene increased in January, with a price of 7222 yuan/ton on December 1st; On December 30th, the price was 7950 yuan/ton. Recently, negotiations for pure benzene in East China have been active, with prices rising and traders actively shipping at high prices. Shandong Refinery has good transactions and inventory levels continue to be low.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream sectors of styrene saw a slight increase in January. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9600 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9633 yuan/ton. There is still support on the cost side, and demand has not met expectations. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8950-10350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9500-10550 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in January. The average quote for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 10000.00 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10160.00 yuan/ton. In January, domestic EPS prices were affected by rising costs and are expected to follow a narrow upward trend in the domestic EPS market.

The domestic ABS market rose in January. Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials has been relatively strong, providing increased support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in production, further reducing supply pressure. On the demand side, consumption is average, and merchants are reporting higher due to supply contraction and upstream rise. The trading in the future market may gradually weaken, but it is expected that the ABS market will be stronger in the short term due to various positive factors.

At present, international oil prices are fluctuating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable. With the upcoming Spring Festival, the expectation of weak supply and demand of styrene is beginning to be realized, and spot transactions are weak. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly experience downward fluctuations.