According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 4975.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% and a month on month increase of 2.77%. The current price has dropped by 3.77% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and consolidating, and it can be seen from the above chart that there has been a slight increase in the recent potassium nitrate market. There have been no new orders signed for potassium chloride border trade, and the domestic potassium chloride market remains strong at a high level with strong cost support. Potassium nitrate manufacturers are shipping normally, with slight fluctuations in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4700-4800 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

This week, the domestic potassium chloride market experienced high volatility. As of this weekend, potassium chloride has been offered at 2516 yuan/ton. The domestic potassium chloride market continues its previous consolidation trend, with a calm market performance. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the moderate arrival volume this month and the basic balance between supply and demand in the domestic market, there has been no surplus situation in the market, and the price remains rigid and strong. However, downstream factories generally have a resistance mentality towards high prices, and the current market is in a weak season. Most enterprises have replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has remained strong at a high level, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers across the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts from Business Society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.).

According to the commodity market analysis system, from May 13th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9681 yuan/ton to 9687 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.06% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.26%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.28%. The domestic cyclohexanone market is expected to rebound, with the raw material pure benzene operating stronger, increasing cost pressure, downstream on-demand procurement, and a stronger market consolidation

Cost side, raw material pure benzene: The market trend of pure benzene is narrow. As of May 22nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8833.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The operating load of cyclohexanone is 66.14%, with a weekly production of 103000 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous week. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of caprolactam has risen, and downstream PA6 polymerization has remained at a high level. The market demand for caprolactam is stable, and downstream factories are restocking according to demand. Confidence in the caprolactam market is relatively strong. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, raw materials tend to fluctuate strongly, cost pressure is high, downstream demand is average, and market spot supply is stable. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

In recent times, the domestic ABS market has continued to be negative, with most brand spot prices being lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 12150 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.61% from the price level on May 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: The load of the domestic ABS industry has increased due to the improvement of the profitability of aggregation enterprises in the early stage. Recently, the average operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises has continued to increase, currently reaching around 65%. The production has increased synchronously, and the supply of goods on site has also increased accordingly. And there are still expectations for improvement in the future, with supply side support for ABS spot gradually weakening.

Cost factor: Recently, the trend of ABS upstream materials has generally weakened, with concentrated resumption of acrylonitrile maintenance equipment and lagging downstream consumption follow-up, resulting in a certain supply-demand contradiction in the market. The current acrylonitrile market is bearish.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been weak. There is a trend of supply relaxation, while downstream demand remains unchanged. The external market prices continue to weaken, and the news of low-priced transactions stimulates the domestic market, resulting in low buyer inquiry intentions. The mentality of merchants is gradually becoming empty, and the market is consolidating its weakness.

Recently, the styrene market has stopped falling and rebounded. The strong trend of upstream pure benzene provides support for the styrene market. Although the market demand is mainly for basic needs, there are some production line maintenance plans in the future, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. It is expected that styrene will continue to strengthen consolidation in the future due to factors such as cost.

In terms of demand: The main terminal demand for ABS has not improved, and the overall load of downstream factories is generally stable, with stocking operations mainly focused on buying in demand. Traders are flexible in their orders, leading to an increase in low-end market offers and a decrease in the speed of goods circulation. The market momentum is weakening, and the demand side is not providing enough support for the market.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, domestic ABS prices have been weak. From a fundamental perspective, the center of gravity of the upstream three materials of ABS is falling, which weakens the cost support for ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant has significantly increased, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the demand for goods is weak, and the support for spot goods is not good. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market may experience a weak downward trend in the short term.

The market price of hexafluoropropylene remains stable. The follow-up of downstream inquiries and procurement is average, and the transaction atmosphere is average. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 20th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 35875.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend has remained stable, with slightly lower production of hydrofluoric acid units. There are still units waiting for market shutdown on site, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased. The production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 20th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Business Society was 11740.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% compared to the beginning of this month (11620.00 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite market continues to rise. As of May 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe fluorite was 3793.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.23% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected. It is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

In mid to early May, the price of ethylene glycol was relatively weak

In May, the price of ethylene glycol was weak, and this week the price began to stabilize. According to data from Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4436.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% compared to the average price of 4481.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on May 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4630 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4350 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer spot prices of 4400-4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Fundamental logic of recent decline and stabilization

In early May, there was news of the resumption of overseas equipment trading in the market, with abundant expectations for overseas import growth. Coupled with a downward shift in downstream polyester production rates, demand expectations weakened, and market sentiment was low.

At present, the price of ethylene glycol has started to stabilize, mainly due to changes in the news. There have been production cuts and supply contraction in the overseas Middle East and North America, and the forecast for arrival at the port has decreased, breaking the previous expectation of import increment; In addition, the domestic ethylene plant maintains a low operating rate, and the production of synthetic gas continues to decline. This has also brought certain benefits to the domestic supply side. The latest domestic production data for April 2024 shows that the ethylene glycol production was 1.3875 million tons, a decrease of 214500 tons compared to the previous month.