1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (4.21-25), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4756 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.90% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC prices have mainly declined, with most manufacturers making price adjustments within the week, with a range of around 50 yuan/ton. The market generally followed the decline, and dealers reported a decrease in offers. The main reason is the lack of favorable fundamentals, with crude oil prices fluctuating at low levels and the futures market performing poorly. PVC spot goods are affected by it, and prices continue to be weak. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers’ equipment is operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4670-4800 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, this week (4.21-25), the calcium carbide market remained stable. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the fluctuation range this week was 0. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the sluggish performance of the PVC spot market is mainly due to low downstream operating rates, insufficient demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has recently stopped falling and risen. Currently, the mainstream price for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) is 14800-15000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price for domestic goods (PM200) is 15200-15800 yuan/ton. Boosted by news of major manufacturers’ lockdowns, sales restrictions, and maintenance plans, the supply side actively pushed up prices, downstream sentiment entered the market, and intermediaries bought inventory at low prices. The current high import costs and tight supply are expected to lead to a strong performance of the aggregated MDI market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and volatile recently (4.10-4.22). As of April 22, the spot rubber market in China was around 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% from 14598 yuan/ton on the 10th. The high point during the cycle was 14735 yuan/ton, and the low point was 14310 yuan/ton. Currently, influenced by international trade news, the atmosphere in the domestic rubber market is relatively weak. The price of raw materials has slightly decreased; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but overall remains at a high level; The downstream construction is basically stable; The Shanghai rubber market is weak and volatile, while the natural rubber spot market is fluctuating and adjusting.
In the second quarter, the overseas main production areas are expected to gradually increase production volume, coupled with the current good weather and high price stimulation, rubber farmers are cutting rubber smoothly, and rubber prices are difficult to stabilize at high levels; At the same time, Yunnan Province in China has conducted trial cutting, and it is expected that the supply of rubber raw materials at home and abroad will increase, leading to a decrease in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of April 22, the price of Thai glue was 56.20 baht/kg, slightly lower than the 57.50 baht/kg on April 10.
Natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level. As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 612500 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons or 1.08% compared to the previous period.
Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is generally stable, but the international trade situation has an impact, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the natural rubber market and light inquiries. As of April 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.5% of the load.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices fall from high levels, coupled with the unclear international trade situation and weak downstream inquiries, the support for natural rubber will weaken, and the inventory of Tianjiao Port will still be at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the later stage.

Since mid April, the domestic ABS market has continued to be weak, with most grades experiencing a decrease in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11000 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.22% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In mid April, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations, and the overall load level was 67%, which was basically the same as the first ten days. The weekly average production has returned to around 120000 tons, but it is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has risen above 200000 tons. In addition, there are relatively few maintenance plans in the industry in the short term, and there are still companies returning to production capacity in the near future. The on-site supply is very abundant, and the supply-demand contradiction is profound. Overall, there has been no improvement in the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Since mid April, the upstream three materials of ABS have shown signs of fatigue, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. At the beginning of the month, some units in the East China and Shandong regions reduced their load or underwent maintenance, resulting in a periodic decrease in supply of acrylonitrile. The inventory pressure in the industry has decreased. However, the production and discharge of the acrylonitrile unit at Yulong Petrochemical in mid month hindered the upward trend of the domestic acrylonitrile market. The consumer end has weakened in stages, with prices falling back, and the market as a whole is cautiously observing.
The domestic butadiene market has experienced a significant decline in recent times. Under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs, the crude oil and synthetic rubber futures markets have fallen widely, and the cost and demand of the butadiene market have been greatly affected, dragging down the mentality of the spot market. The port arrival situation on the supply side is good, but the overall supply of butadiene is relatively loose. Overall, it is expected that there may not be a positive market trend in the short term.
Styrene is also subject to international news such as equivalent tariffs, and the market has experienced a significant decline in the early stage. Recently, due to the recovery of the pure benzene market and the tight balance between supply and demand of styrene, prices have shown a trend of stabilizing and oscillating. In April, there were many centralized inspections of styrene, and the supply side remained tight. Downstream 3S factories had high inventory and limited production. However, in the uncertain market situation of raw materials, the risk of a decline in styrene in the future cannot be ruled out.
On the demand side: As we enter late April, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal is generally flat, and the purchasing logic tends to buy at the bottom and replenish orders for urgent needs. The confidence in the market is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is more cautious. With the exhaustion of essential orders, new order deliveries have noticeably weakened, and the flow of goods has returned slowly. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak and difficult to change. The upstream three materials are weakly moving, which provides poor comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of the ABS polymerization plant remains stable with little fluctuation, and there has been no improvement in demand side consumption. Business analysts believe that ABS has fallen to near cost price, and the market has long had strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with the impact of international news such as equivalent tariffs, pessimistic expectations for the future are biased. The bullish trend within the market is hard to find, and there is still a possibility that the market may continue to decline in the short term.

This week (April 14-18, 2025), manufacturers will mainly execute preliminary contracts, and the adhesive short fiber market will be organized and operated, with prices remaining stable. The upstream raw material market is not performing well, while the downstream market is holding onto rigid demand procurement in multiple dimensions. The support from both the cost and demand sides is weak, and the release of newly signed orders in the market is limited. Operators mainly execute preliminary contracts, and the market price of adhesive short fibers is stable and organized.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 18, 2025, the average market price of viscose staple fiber is 13480 yuan/ton, which is the same as the same period last week.
In terms of cost: The market price of raw material dissolution slurry has not fluctuated much this week, while the prices of auxiliary liquid alkali and sulfuric acid markets have shown a downward trend. The market price of raw materials continues to be weak, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers has decreased.
Supply and demand: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained at around 77.16% this week, and production continued to decrease compared to last week. During the week, the operating load of some adhesive short fiber facilities in Shandong region decreased, and the overall supply of the industry continued to decline. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn industry has slightly decreased, and prices continue to decline. The demand in the terminal market is still light, and there is a certain degree of risk aversion in the downstream market. The replenishment demand is limited, and the main consumption of raw material inventory is high. The demand side has not shown significant improvement, and downstream enterprises have poor delivery speed during the week. The overall inventory of the adhesive short fiber market still shows an increasing trend.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market may remain weak and stagnant, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid markets may remain stable with small fluctuations. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of adhesive short fiber raw materials will not change much next week, and the cost support will be relatively weak and stable.
Supply and demand side: There is currently no clear recovery time for the pre parking maintenance equipment, and the industry supply may not fluctuate significantly; There is currently no sign of improvement in demand in the terminal market, and downstream yarn companies may mainly execute preliminary orders, with limited demand for raw material replenishment. Therefore, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side of the adhesive short fiber market will remain weak next week.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may continue to maintain a stable trend, and downstream market demand is unlikely to improve. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will consolidate next week, with prices expected to be around 13300-13500 yuan/ton.