Last week (August 12-18), the nylon filament market temporarily stabilized and consolidated. There is currently no significant improvement in downstream demand, and manufacturers are following up on demand from multiple parties. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and businesses lack confidence in the future market. Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has increased, with good cost support but little change in cost support. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not significant. Overall, cost demand remains stable, and the price of nylon filament is generally stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament remained stable last week (August 12-18). As of August 18, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18640 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price. The price of nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is 16275 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

The trend of raw materials has slightly increased

Last week (August 12-18), the market fundamentals of nylon filament raw material caprolactam improved, with good cost support. The supply expectation is slightly tight, and downstream nylon PA6 production remains at a high level, with stable demand. The supply expectation of caprolactam is slightly tight, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will be slightly better organized in the later stage.

Supply demand

Last week (August 12-18), nylon manufacturers maintained stable operating loads and sufficient supply of goods. In August, it was the traditional off-season for textiles, and downstream demand was weak. The weaving start-up rate continued to decline, and downstream manufacturers continued to purchase according to demand, resulting in weak demand for nylon spinning.

Future forecast

The spot market for raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 is expected to be slightly better organized, with normal on-site supply and weak downstream demand. With the disappearance of high temperature weather, the trading atmosphere for nylon civilian silk may slightly rebound, but it will still be mainly based on on-demand purchasing. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the positive consolidation of raw materials, and prices will mainly fluctuate upward in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (8.9-8.16), with an average market price of 18033 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17933 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 0.55%.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the price of magnesium ingots reached a near May low, stabilizing and slightly weakening. The price has fallen to near the cost line, and manufacturers have a pro price mentality. Some magnesium factories have slightly reduced prices to promote transactions.

Supply and demand side

Insufficient driving force on the demand side, coupled with weak raw material prices, does not provide favorable support for magnesium prices. Confidence in the future market is clearly lacking, and magnesium prices continue to be under pressure.

In terms of raw materials

The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron has fallen compared to the middle of last week. Recently, the futures of ferrosilicon have fluctuated downwards, and the spot market has followed suit with a weak decline. Market transactions are light, and there is a downward pressure on downstream purchases. The actual transaction price of ferrosilicon has slightly loosened, and it is expected that the short-term ferrosilicon market may remain stagnant, with little possibility of a significant price adjustment.

The price of orchid charcoal in Fugu area remains stable, and mainstream manufacturers’ quotations have remained basically unchanged. It is expected that orchid charcoal will not rise in the short term and will continue to maintain a weak and stable trend.

Future forecast

At present, the downstream demand for magnesium ingots is poor, and only essential procurement is maintained downstream, resulting in a continued stalemate in market supply and demand. The short-term supply and demand pattern of the magnesium market is unlikely to change, and it is expected that the magnesium market will continue to maintain a weak and stable trend, with prices fluctuating narrowly in the low range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on August 12th was 2060 yuan/ton. On August 11th, the baking soda commodity index was 139.91, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.68% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 58.50% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1500-1600 yuan/ton. Due to poor downstream demand, it is expected to operate weakly in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1874 yuan/ton.

Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, the upward trend of nickel prices this week (8.1-8.9) was not maintained and fluctuated downward again. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 131666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14% from the first day and a year-on-year decrease of 24.54%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 9 times and risen 3 times, with overall nickel prices weakening and showing signs of rebound.

Nickel industry chain

Macroscopically, the US manufacturing PMI value for July was 46.4, lower than market expectations and has been shrinking for 9 consecutive months. China’s manufacturing PMI value for July was 49.4%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The US non farm payroll report for July was weak, coupled with a series of weak financial reports released by US technology giants. Concerns about global economic growth anxiety and weak demand affected the market trend. However, the number of initial jobless claims in the US only decreased narrowly than expected, and various institutions predicted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September, stabilizing market sentiment. The US stock market also rose sharply on Thursday, causing a wide range of fluctuations in the impact on nickel.

On the supply side, Indonesia’s nickel exports significantly increased in the first half of the year, with a total volume of 805000 tons and an annual growth rate of 20.7%. Under long-term supply pressure, several nickel mining projects in Australia have gradually reduced or stopped production. LME nickel inventory continues to rise. As of August 9th, LME nickel inventory reached 112404 tons, the highest level since December 2021. Shanghai nickel inventory is 16499 tons, showing a continuous downward trend. In July 2024, the national refined nickel production reached 28900 tons, a month on month increase of 8.2% and a year-on-year increase of 33.87%. In July, the national production of nickel sulfate was 27800 metal tons, and the national physical ton production was 126200 physical tons, a decrease of 9% month on month and 29.7% year-on-year. In July, the national production of nickel pig iron was 29900 tons of nickel, with 737000 physical tons. The physical tons increased by 10.69% month on month, and the metal tons increased by 6.43% month on month.

In terms of demand:

Stainless steel needs to be neither too hot nor too hot. It is reported that the national stainless steel crude steel production in July 2024 was about 3.1838 million tons, a decrease of 1.44% month on month and 2.13% year-on-year. Affected by high temperatures, overall demand is weak, and stainless steel plants are beginning to reduce their load. With the expected peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” approaching, stainless steel production will improve in August.

The demand for ternary batteries has slowed down. The installation of lithium batteries in June 2024 reached 43GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30%. 11 GWh of ternary batteries were loaded onto the vehicle, accounting for 26%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 32GWh, accounting for 74%, while the growth of ternary batteries has slowed down compared to the previous period. From January to June, 203G of lithium batteries were installed, a year-on-year increase of 34%.

Market forecast: Business analysts believe that the trend of the metal market is easily affected by macro factors, and the negative sentiment on the macro level may gradually weaken. There is an oversupply of international nickel, but domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai has weakened, and domestic demand expectations are slowly improving. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and rebound.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 29th to August 2nd, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8942 yuan/ton to 8842 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.12% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 20.13%. Recently, some devices have been shut down for maintenance and replacement, resulting in a decline in the overall operating rate of the industry. But the downstream industry load has also decreased, resulting in a reduction in the digestion of raw materials. Manufacturers holding goods are under pressure to ship, and negotiations for discounts on actual orders are underway to promote sales. The market center of gravity is fluctuating downward.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased, and suppliers are mainly inclined to maintain prices. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: there has been a significant increase in the supply of calcium carbide, and there has been a noticeable recovery and improvement in the operation of supporting calcium carbide equipment. At the same time, the early maintenance of the calcium carbide furnace has been completed, resulting in an overall increase in supply. The calcium carbide market is running abnormally low. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is experiencing a narrow consolidation. As of 10:00 am on August 2nd, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2510 yuan/ton. The cost impact of BDO is mixed.

On the demand side, although the downstream PTMEG industry has slightly increased with the increase of maintenance equipment load, and the TPU and PU slurry load in the polyurethane field has also increased, the second largest downstream PBT industry has experienced a significant decline in load due to the impact of some equipment load reduction production. The demand side has reduced the amount of raw material digestion, and the supply-demand contradiction still exists. At the same time, downstream industries such as THF, PBT, GBL, PBAT are experiencing a decline in market conditions, leading to poor transmission of industrial chain costs and severe pressure on raw material prices. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Market forecast shows that some maintenance equipment will operate at a reduced load after restarting, leading to an increase in market supply. Downstream industries are experiencing both negative and negative impacts, and overall demand has also increased. However, the supply-demand imbalance continues, putting pressure on manufacturers’ shipments. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.