According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has declined this week (April 15-19). As of April 19, the domestic polyester staple fiber market price was 7672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% compared to the beginning of the week.

At present, the environment in which crude oil operates is relatively complex, and the performance of oil prices is also relatively stagnant and anxious. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $82.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $87.11 per barrel. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In addition, given that the current geopolitical tensions have not escalated, crude oil has the potential to mitigate risk premiums and reshape valuation expectations. But the risk has not been lifted, coupled with the start of the North American driving season, gasoline demand is expected to rise, which will provide support for oil prices. Overall, the supply and demand game in the oil market will intensify in the short term, and there is a greater possibility of oil prices maintaining high volatility.

There are still some maintenance plans for PX devices in Asia, but Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical, with a total of 4.5 million tons of devices, will resume operation. Therefore, the overall supply of PX is gradually recovering, and the demand side is performing well due to the expected restart and load increase of PTA factories. It is necessary to be cautious of the announcement of subsequent maintenance arrangements for some PTA factories. The high inventory situation of domestic PX continues, and prices are expected to fall and consolidate.

This week, the domestic PTA spot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. As of April 19th, the average market price in East China was 5948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the beginning of the week. Looking ahead to the future, our own supply will also increase. Jiatong Energy may restart a 2.5 million ton PTA unit on April 23, while Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton PTA unit is currently operating at around 80%, with plans to increase its load starting next week. In addition, there are currently no other planned large-scale PTA device maintenance or restarts, and attention still needs to be paid to unplanned maintenance.

Downstream yarn prices have been weakly adjusted. Currently, the reference price for the 32S pure polyester yarn market in Shandong is 12325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 0.60% compared to last week’s price of 12400 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been a decrease in orders and overall shipments have slightly weakened. Terminal purchases are based on demand, and some specifications of the yarn factory have been moderately discounted, with actual order negotiations being the main focus. Considering the gradual shift towards the off-season, as well as the May Day holiday, downstream production reduction and holiday expectations, as well as poor new orders, demand expectations will be weak.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the cost and demand side of the market are shifting downwards, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will still be weakly adjusted.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 18th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, and on April 11th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3470 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

The shortage of domestic bauxite supply has not changed, and there is currently no news of resuming production in the suspended mines in China. The amount of imported minerals in China has increased. According to customs data and import sources, the explosion at the Guinea oil depot did not have a significant impact on the shipment of bauxite. The rainy season in Australia is not conducive to the shipment of bauxite, with Australian imports of bauxite decreasing by 42% month on month in February. Some alumina companies in certain regions have experienced reduced production due to a shortage of ore supply, but due to the domestic alumina industry’s decent profits, companies have a high willingness to increase production, resulting in some supply increases.

In terms of supply and demand

Due to the high aluminum prices and considerable profits, Yunnan Electrolytic Aluminum Plant has a positive attitude towards resuming production among eligible enterprises. In terms of news, the UK and the US have imposed sanctions on Russian metals, including aluminum. There is a certain level of panic in the market, which has pushed up the Shanghai aluminum futures price. The aluminum oxide futures price has been strengthened due to the emotional impact. However, after the news was digested, both Shanghai aluminum and aluminum oxide futures prices have rebounded.

Future Market Forecast

The subjective willingness of alumina enterprises to increase production has increased, and their production capacity is currently experiencing a slight increase. It is expected that the price of alumina will fluctuate and adjust in the short term.

Technical prediction of ethanol market: the downward trend is difficult to change

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since February 18, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is only 5.86%.

At present, ethanol prices continue to decline, reaching a historical low in nearly three years. The monitoring level is one year oversold, two years oversold, and three years oversold. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ethanol in the past three years is 6878.45 yuan/kg, with a median value of 6772.92 yuan/kg, a minimum value of 5962.50 yuan/kg, and a maximum value of 7583.33 yuan/kg. The low price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 0 yuan/kg, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is -1620.83 yuan/kg.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 8th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price dropped from 6000 yuan/ton to 5962 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.62%, a month on month decrease of 4.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.02%. The domestic ethanol market continues to decline, with high inventory levels in large factories and strong shipping sentiment, resulting in continuously refreshing prices for terminal purchases.

On the cost side, as the temperature gradually rises, the difficulty of storing corn has increased. In addition, a large amount of imported corn has arrived at the port to supplement domestic market demand, and the intention of grain trading entities in production areas to liquidate their exports continues to increase. The overall supply of domestic corn market continues to be loose, while the breeding industry market remains at a low level. Deep processing enterprises have relatively sufficient corn inventory, and the pressure of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic corn market remains weak. The overall pressure on domestic corn market prices is weak. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. Short term stable supply of corn ethanol, East China cassava ethanol, and coal based ethanol. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, there is no possibility of repair in downstream demand for edible alcohol, and the chemical terminal just needs to replenish it; The main business of fuel ethanol and local refining needs to replenish inventory as needed, and centralized stocking may occur before May Day. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Market forecast: By the end of April, the maintenance plans of each factory will be fulfilled, which will have a certain positive impact on the market; But on the demand side, downstream demand for food is not smooth, the purchasing atmosphere is flat, and large factory inventories are high. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly weak.

DBP prices of plasticizers consolidating at a low level in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the DBP price was 9312.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.53% compared to the DBP price of 9362.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. In March, DBP prices fell significantly, and in April, DBP did not continue its decline. DBP prices stabilized at a low level.

Low level consolidation of raw material n-butanol, consolidation after the price drop of isooctanol, and insufficient cost support for plasticizer DBP; Plasticizer manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply of DBP; Downstream construction and operation are normal, and spring maintenance is not active. The demand support for plasticizer DBP still exists, and the DBP price has stabilized at a low level after falling in April.

Low consolidation of n-butanol prices in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the price of n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.63% compared to the price of n-butanol on April 1st, which was 7950 yuan/ton. The overall production capacity utilization rate in the n-butanol field has slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure in the n-butanol market has been alleviated. The supply side provides support to the n-butanol market. The downstream demand for n-butanol is mainly for on-demand procurement, with some users stocking up on a small scale. The overall inquiry atmosphere on site has improved, and the demand side provides certain support to the n-butanol market. The support for the rise of n-butanol still exists, and the price of n-butanol has stopped falling and stabilized, with significant support for DBP costs.

Consolidation after the price drop of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the price of isooctanol was 9620 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.37% compared to the price of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st. After a sharp drop in the price of isooctanol in April, it stabilized at a low level. The price of propylene, the raw material of isooctanol, fluctuated and rose, supporting costs. The downward pressure on isooctanol weakened; Downstream customers are becoming more proactive in purchasing, and in the future, iso octanol manufacturers are actively shipping. The positive support for iso octanol is increasing. After the decline in the market for isooctanol, it remained stable, with support from the rising cost of plasticizer DBP.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of cost: n-butanol is consolidating at a low level, isooctanol prices are consolidating after falling, DBP raw material cost support still exists, and DBP downward pressure is weakened; On the supply side, plasticizer DBP manufacturers are operating steadily, and there is an oversupply of DBP; In terms of demand, downstream manufacturers have low enthusiasm for spring maintenance, and the operating load has decreased less than expected. The demand support for plasticizers still exists. In the future, cost increases will provide greater support; DBP manufacturers with strong supply and weak demand for plasticizers are expected to see strong consolidation in DBP prices in the future.

Market analysis for this week

This week, the magnesium ingot market was initially strong and then stable. Recently, the non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, driving up magnesium prices. After the Qingming Festival, the magnesium ingot market rebounded and rose, with an increase of 300-500 yuan/ton. Magnesium ingot prices have also returned to above the 18000 yuan/ton mark. The main reason is an increase in market transactions, with slightly more active inquiries and purchases compared to before. Steel mills have a stronger willingness to raise prices, coupled with a slight rebound in raw material prices, supporting the rise in magnesium prices. However, with the rapid rise in prices, downstream acceptance was insufficient, and the supply and demand sides once again became deadlocked in the later part of the week, leading to a consolidation of magnesium prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 12th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18466.67 yuan/ton, with a week on week increase of 0.91%.

In terms of supply and demand

The factory side has a strong sentiment of price support, considering that some manufacturers have stopped production for maintenance in the early stage, the market supply has decreased, and inventory pressure has decreased. This week, after the end of the holiday, some companies delivered orders to purchase magnesium ingots, and downstream aluminum processing prices continued to rise, which has a boosting effect on magnesium prices. But most downstream users have limited acceptance of high prices, and high priced transactions in the market are rare.

In terms of raw materials

The market quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia this week is between 6100-6350 yuan/ton. The demand for ferrosilicon at the retail end has improved, and confidence in the industry has increased this week. Some factories have slightly increased their prices, indicating that ferrosilicon has some resistance to decline in the short term. It is expected that ferrosilicon prices will fluctuate strongly next week.

This week, the national blue charcoal market operated steadily with a strong bias, and the overall inventory in the market dropped to a medium low level. Coupled with the rise in raw material prices, enterprise quotations were firm. As of April 12, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market were 740-900 yuan/ton, and the coke surface was 580-650 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 720-900 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 620-700 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current magnesium ingot market has seen an increase in trading volume, a decrease in production release from magnesium factories, and an increase in raw material prices, which has strengthened support for magnesium ingots. Magnesium prices still have an upward trend. However, the sustainability of downstream demand is insufficient. As prices rise, actual transactions slow down, and the sustained rise in magnesium prices is weak. It is expected that magnesium prices will remain stable, moderate, and strong in the short term, with limited upward momentum.