According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has recently increased. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4825.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.20%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a narrow upward trend. In recent times, there has been little contradiction in the fundamentals of methanol. The inventory of mainland sample enterprises is relatively low, and there is not much pressure on their shipments. In addition, some enterprises are outsourcing, resulting in a relatively high market atmosphere. The overall market is mainly strong. Downstream MTBE: After Yuhuang starts construction, it will affect next week’s production, leading to an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: After the shutdown and maintenance of mainstream factories in Shandong, the equipment returned to normal, and the demand for chloride increased; The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by strong performance.

In recent times, the methanol market has shown an upward trend, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand for procurement is maintained, and polyformaldehyde enterprises are arranging orders for shipment. Polyformaldehyde analysts from Business Society predict that prices may slightly increase.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 7th, the price of sodium acetate trihydrate was 2218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85% compared to April 30th at 2283 yuan/ton.

On the cost side:

In early May, the raw material acetic acid maintained a pre holiday fluctuation trend. With the restart of shutdown facilities in early April, the supply of acetic acid in the market gradually recovered. Downstream purchasing willingness was not strong, and prices continued to decline, weakening support for sodium acetate.

Market analysis: Although the support for raw material acetic acid has weakened, the recent trend of raw material soda ash is relatively strong, which provides some support for sodium acetate. It is expected that sodium acetate will operate in a volatile manner in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, in April, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a continuous weak downward trend, with the center of gravity of organic silicon DMC continuously declining. On April 1st, the price of organic silicon DMC participated in 15260 yuan/ton, and on April 30th, the price of organic silicon DMC referenced 13500 yuan/ton. In April, the decline of organic silicon DMC reached 11.53%.

According to the market analysis system of Shengyishe Organic Silicon DMC from the beginning of the year to the present, it can be seen that the domestic organic silicon DMC market experienced an upward trend from January to March in the first quarter, but the good times did not last long. Starting from mid to late March, the high market price of organic silicon DMC began to decline, and throughout April, the market price of organic silicon DMC continued to approach the low level. On April 30th, the price of organic silicon DMC was at its lowest level in 2024, which had already swallowed up the market surge of organic silicon DMC in the first quarter. From the annual comparison chart of organic silicon DMC, it can be seen that the current market price of organic silicon DMC has dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years.

The influencing factors of the decline in the organic silicon DMC market in April:

In April, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC was weak, with downstream users mainly digesting early raw materials. New orders on the market were weak, and the market inquiry atmosphere was insufficient, making it difficult for the demand side to provide effective support for organic silicon DMC. In late April, although some organic silicon DMC devices were shut down for maintenance, the overall operating rate of the organic silicon DMC site decreased. However, due to slow demand transmission, the overall on-site supply of organic silicon DMC remained loose, and there was overall supply pressure in the market. The support provided by the supply side to the market also showed signs of fatigue.

Can the organic silicon DMC market see a turning point in May?

After Labor Day, the silicone DMC market also entered May. Firstly, let’s take a look at the market performance of organic silicon DMC on the first day of operation after Labor Day. On the first day of operation, Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC maintained a stable pre holiday quotation, with a price reference of around 13200 yuan/ton. Other factories also closely followed in the footsteps of large factories, maintaining a stable pre holiday quotation. On May 6th, the market price of organic silicon DMC was set at 13200-14000 yuan/ton.

In terms of commencement: In April, some organic silicon DMC shutdown and maintenance facilities will gradually resume and restart in May. It is expected that the decline in organic silicon DMC production in May will be lower than expected, and coupled with the input of some new production capacity, the operating rate of organic silicon DMC plants is likely to increase instead of decrease in May. The increase in operating rate will also increase the supply pressure on organic silicon DMC factories, so the game between supply and demand of organic silicon DMC still exists in May.

In terms of demand: At the end of April, there was a small-scale bottoming and stocking of organic silicon DMC downstream, but the overall wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream remained, and the overall pre holiday stocking was lower than expected. After entering May, the overall pre order volume of the organic silicon DMC factory is limited. Due to the potential growth impact from the supply side, organic silicon DMC operators are concerned about the continued intensification of supply and demand contradictions, and the downstream bottom buying sentiment of organic silicon DMC is poor. Therefore, currently, there has been no significant boost in downstream demand for organic silicon DMC, and factories actively shipping to drive downstream demand will still dominate.

In terms of supply: Affected by the increase in production, the overall supply pressure of organic silicon DMC will still exist in May. However, although the supply pressure does not decrease, the current market price of organic silicon DMC has dropped to a low point, with some regions having low prices close to 13000 yuan/ton. Therefore, factories are not willing to continue adjusting prices downwards. It is expected that in May, the control of supply side inventory and timely regulation of production and load reduction in the organic silicon DMC market will be more important.

Technical aspect: Organic silicon DMC is at a low level, and there is still a narrow downward risk in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the current market price of organic silicon DMC is at a one-year low, a two-year low, and a three-year low.

Starting from April, the organic silicon DMC 7-day moving average and 30 day moving average started a downward trend at the same time. At the end of April, although the organic silicon DMC 7-day moving average performed steadily, the 30 day moving average was still in a downward trend. Therefore, according to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the probability of a change in the operating trend (i.e. the 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) in the next 7 days is not high.

In summary, the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that as we enter May, the overall supply-demand contradiction in the organic silicon DMC market still exists, and the pressure on the supply side remains unchanged. The boosting of the demand side is unknown, and the regulation between supply and demand needs to be observed. Therefore, there is still a downward risk in the organic silicon DMC market in May. However, facing the current almost bottoming out price, the probability of a significant decline in organic silicon DMC is small, and the market focus is likely to narrow downward adjustment, with an estimated adjustment range of around 100-200 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic furfural (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market fluctuated and declined in April. As of April 30th, the average quoted price of furfural was 9650.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 1.46% from 10100.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.

Cost side: Currently, the main production of furfural in China is corn cobs, and sulfuric acid is generally used as the catalyst. The domestic sulfuric acid market prices fell in April. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid on April 1st was 328.75 yuan/ton, and on April 30th it was 272.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.11%. The downstream market is weak, with limited demand for sulfuric acid and significant pressure on manufacturers to ship, resulting in a decline in market prices.

On the demand side, the domestic furfuryl alcohol (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market declined in April. As of April 30th, the average quoted price of furfuryl alcohol was 10125.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 3.57% from 10500.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Furfural Products, the upstream sulfuric acid market for furfural continues to decline, while the downstream furfural alcohol market is declining. Furfural support is limited, and it is expected that in the near future, furfural may be mainly weak and consolidating.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 29th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7466.67 yuan/ton. In April, the price curve of cyclohexane showed a continuous upward trend. In April, the supply side of the cyclohexane market tightened, spot inventory remained scarce and operated at a low level. Factory equipment maintenance led to a decrease in production capacity, good downstream demand, positive market transaction atmosphere, and mainstream cyclohexane factory prices continued to rise, resulting in a stable and strong overall market trend.

2、 Market analysis

In April, the domestic market price of cyclohexane showed a continuous upward trend. Due to the influence of international crude oil prices, the upstream raw material pure benzene price of cyclohexane fluctuated in April. The overall price of pure benzene in April showed an upward trend, with good market demand and a shortage of spot supply. Inventory continued to operate at a low level, and the trading atmosphere on the market warmed up. The focus of negotiations was high, and the downstream procurement atmosphere was positive. In April, the production of cyclohexane decreased, and some enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of cyclohexane. This is the main reason for the price increase.

In terms of import and export: China’s total import of cyclohexane in March was 0.04 tons, a decrease of 95.67% compared to February’s import volume of 0.923 tons. The import amount in March was 3130 tons/US dollar, and the export amount in March was 4097.1 tons, a decrease of 47.23% compared to February’s import volume of 7763.58 tons. The export amount in February was 3995381 tons/US dollar. The main importing countries for cyclohexane in China are Germany and the United States, and the main exporting countries are Thailand. From the perspective of shipping and receiving areas, the export provinces of cyclohexane in China are mainly Fujian Province, Shandong Province, and Liaoning Province. Fujian Province has a large production capacity for cyclohexane in China and is also a major region for cyclohexane exports.

In terms of cost: In March, upstream pure benzene fluctuated and the overall market showed a downward trend, mainly due to the influence of crude oil prices. In March, pure benzene prices were in a weak consolidation stage. Starting from mid March, crude oil prices rose, and pure benzene had some support on the cost side. Cyclohexane provided strong support on the cost side, and the price continued to rise, showing a strong trend. In late March, crude oil prices returned to stability, and pure benzene prices were in a weak consolidation stage. Cyclohexane prices showed a weak and strong trend.

In terms of demand: In April, downstream product caprolactam prices first rose and then fell, with sufficient raw material inventory. Currently, the caprolactam market is gradually releasing maintenance plans, and the overall market operating rate is around 76%. Currently, the supply of spot goods has slightly decreased, and manufacturers have shown a reluctance to sell. However, in the week leading up to the end of the month, although there is some support on the cost side, supply has increased and inventory is running at a high level, while demand is insufficient and consumption is slow. The negative factors brought by supply and demand dominate, and the caprolactam market price has a weak downward trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that the current downstream market procurement atmosphere is positive, and the upstream pure benzene price is operating at a high level. There is still some support for the cost of cyclohexane in the short term. Currently, inventory is operating at a low level, and some enterprise facilities have not yet restarted. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain a strong trend in the short term, with the mainstream price range being 7500 yuan/ton.