In mid to early May, the price of ethylene glycol was relatively weak

In May, the price of ethylene glycol was weak, and this week the price began to stabilize. According to data from Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4436.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% compared to the average price of 4481.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on May 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4630 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4350 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer spot prices of 4400-4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Fundamental logic of recent decline and stabilization

In early May, there was news of the resumption of overseas equipment trading in the market, with abundant expectations for overseas import growth. Coupled with a downward shift in downstream polyester production rates, demand expectations weakened, and market sentiment was low.

At present, the price of ethylene glycol has started to stabilize, mainly due to changes in the news. There have been production cuts and supply contraction in the overseas Middle East and North America, and the forecast for arrival at the port has decreased, breaking the previous expectation of import increment; In addition, the domestic ethylene plant maintains a low operating rate, and the production of synthetic gas continues to decline. This has also brought certain benefits to the domestic supply side. The latest domestic production data for April 2024 shows that the ethylene glycol production was 1.3875 million tons, a decrease of 214500 tons compared to the previous month.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate have stopped rising and falling this week. On May 16th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 106800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the average price of 109200 yuan/ton on May 12th. On May 16th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 113000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.75% compared to the average price of 116200 yuan/ton on May 12th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot market for lithium carbonate has shown a weak decline this week. In terms of supply, the current domestic production of lithium carbonate continues to increase from April to May. The production in April was approximately 52500 tons, an increase of 23% compared to the previous month. In addition, the synchronous increase in the amount of imported lithium carbonate has led to a significant increase in the supply of lithium carbonate. In a state of relatively sufficient market supply, although lithium salt production enterprises are still relatively conservative in individual unit prices, they have slightly lowered their prices in response to market sentiment, and some traders have also simultaneously lowered their prices.

In terms of demand, at the beginning of the week, some downstream positive electrode companies made a small amount of bulk purchases due to price fluctuations, resulting in an increase in market trading volume. However, some downstream enterprises still do not have the willingness to replenish spot inventory due to their sufficient lithium carbonate inventory, increased customer supply, and stable long-term cooperation. In addition, the market is relatively bearish on short-term prices, and it is still in a wait-and-see situation at present.

The market situation of lithium hydroxide is mainly stable, and the price of spodumene concentrate has recently decreased narrowly. This week, the price of lithium carbonate is weak and downward, with weak cost support. Large factories mainly deliver long-term orders, and the performance of the new energy and energy storage market is still good. Downstream ternary enterprises mainly consume inventory on the demand side, and high nickel demand is average. The market transaction atmosphere is flat, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is stable but weak.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable with a weak trend. The upstream price of iron phosphate remains mainly stable, while the price of lithium carbonate has declined. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is average, but downstream demand is poor. The current trend of lithium iron phosphate has been maintained, and the price fluctuation range is limited. Therefore, it is mainly a wait-and-see approach.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures has been declining for several consecutive days this week, and has slightly rebounded towards the weekend. On May 16th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 103800 yuan/ton, the closing price was 104000 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 104950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39%. The transaction volume was 100700 lots and the position was 197287 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, with both domestic production and overseas imports of lithium carbonate increasing, the inventory of lithium carbonate in the market is still relatively high. With the downward trend of prices, the market trading volume has increased, but the focus of transaction prices still has a slight downward trend. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will still have a bearish trend.

In late May, the domestic market for isooctyl acrylate showed a month on month improvement, with the main trend fluctuating. As of May 15th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.99% compared to the beginning of this month (12625.00 yuan/ton). Due to the significant increase in domestic equipment maintenance and overseas exports, the market supply of isooctyl acrylate is significantly tight, with an overall preference for quantity and price.

Supply side:

The domestic orders for raw materials for isooctanol have been well followed up, with the main focus on pending orders and on-demand procurement. Most factories have maintained high load operations, and overall isooctanol has maintained a high level of upward trend. As of May 15th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyishe was 9850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton).

As of May 15th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in the domestic raw material market was 6925.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The acrylic acid market is supported by expectations of recent shutdown and maintenance of individual production units. Production companies have made strong offers, while holding manufacturers have seen their prices rise. The focus of trading on the market has fluctuated, and downstream markets have average enthusiasm for receiving goods. The market may continue to consolidate and operate, with primary demand supporting the market.

Demand side:

The SAP industry’s demand performance is relatively warm, providing strong support for the market. Due to differences in product structure, there are differences in stocking in different regions, and market confidence is steadily recovering. The market maintains a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and follow-up on actual transactions is needed.

The water reducing agent market is operating steadily with a weak trend, and holding manufacturers are maintaining high reports and low operations. Business owners have a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and downstream inquiries have increased enthusiasm. The willingness to accept goods is not strong, so pay attention to changes in the news.

Overall

In the near future, the market for isooctyl acrylate may show strong performance, with demand gradually improving by the end of May and supply-demand contradictions gradually calming down. Business Society analysts predict that a strong price increase is a necessary condition for a rapid increase in apparent demand, and the market price of isooctyl acrylate will fluctuate around 12500-12800 yuan/ton next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2853 yuan/ton on May 6th, and 2893 yuan/ton on May 14th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate increased by 1.40%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3883 yuan/ton on May 6th, and 3883 yuan/ton on May 14th. The market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market trend of monoammonium phosphate was relatively strong, with diammonium phosphate mainly consolidating. The price of raw material phosphate ore has increased, leading to increased cost support. Downstream demand for ammonium phosphate has increased, leading to tight market supply and rising prices. Some manufacturers have stopped selling due to insufficient supply. The market for diammonium phosphate is stable, with weak market demand and limited new transactions. As of May 14th, the market price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan region is around 2900-3050 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3820-4050 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3520-3600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. In the first week after the holiday, the overall phosphorus ore market in China saw a slight increase. After the holiday, the demand for phosphate ore in the terminal phosphate fertilizer market has improved, and the demand for phosphate ore has increased. In some regions of China, mining companies have improved their shipment pace, and the supply of mid to high end grade phosphate ore spot is tight. Therefore, some mining companies have raised the price of mid to high end grade phosphate ore narrowly after the holiday, with an increase of about 10-20 yuan/ton. As of May 14th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream compound fertilizers. After the holiday, the compound fertilizer market fluctuated and adjusted, and in the short term, the market sentiment is improving. The intention to raise prices has increased, and some companies are trying to raise their prices, but the follow-up on transactions is limited, and the market continues to digest previous orders as the main focus. High nitrogen fertilizers have been boosted by the rise in urea prices, resulting in a slight increase or suspension of orders in some areas.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Phosphate, there has been an increase in inquiries in the monoammonium phosphate market recently, and the focus of transactions has shifted upwards. The demand for diammonium phosphate has performed poorly, and the market is weak and consolidating. It is expected that the price of monoammonium will continue to remain strong in the short term, while the price of diammonium will remain weak and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chloroacetic acid rebounded in mid May. As of May 13th, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3212 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan/ton from last week’s 3139 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials: After the holiday, the market price of acetic acid continued to rise. As of May 13th, the price of acetic acid was 3397 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, which was 3205 yuan/ton. The downstream PTA and EVA demand for acetic acid, as well as the export volume of acetic acid, have increased simultaneously. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the price of acetic acid has risen.

Downstream aspect: In April, downstream glycine production enterprises of chloroacetic acid were shut down for maintenance. The operating rate of glyphosate downstream of glycine was high, and glycine orders were considerable. The on-site market was tentatively rising.

Business Society Chloroacetic Acid Data Analyst believes that both supply and demand are strong, and the price of chloroacetic acid is rising. It is expected that the price of chloroacetic acid will maintain a range consolidation trend in late May, depending on the cost side and downstream demand trends.