According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in mid October, terminal demand was sluggish and the hydrogen peroxide market declined. On October 14th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 763 yuan/ton, and on October 23rd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 753 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% in price.

 

Low terminal demand and declining hydrogen peroxide market

 

In mid October, due to weak terminal rigid demand and poor purchasing of hydrogen peroxide by manufacturers, the market for hydrogen peroxide was dominated by negative factors, resulting in a weak decline in the overall price range of 700-750 yuan/ton. On October 23rd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong remained stable at around 700 yuan/ton, while in Hebei it was 710 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 950 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

 

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that at the end of October, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals was poor, and the future market for hydrogen peroxide showed weak upward momentum.

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Ethylene glycol prices fall in October

 

In October, ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, and after a rapid increase after the holiday, the sentiment subsided and the price gradually fell back. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 21st, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol in China was 4675 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.31% from September 26th.

 

On October 21, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4610-4660 yuan/ton. The spot contract basis for ethylene glycol at the port slightly increased during the day, but the market fell, resulting in a decrease in the actual contract spot transaction price. The spot price opened in the morning today, with a contract basis quotation of+42 to+45 for this week. The basis quotation slightly increased during the day, with little fluctuation. At noon, the basis quotation rose to+44 to+47 for this week, and at the end of November, the basis quotation was+49 to+50.

 

On October 21st, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4230-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

 

On October 17, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $551/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $580/ton.

 

Port inventory rebounds

 

The explicit inventory data of port ethylene glycol is still at a relatively low level, but the number of offshore bidding goods has increased recently. The supply of goods in Taiwan, China Province of China and Malaysia has been transacted, and the supply of goods in South Korea will also be opened. The short-term arrival to the port has increased. As of October 21, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 605500 tons, up from 515200 tons on October 14, with a cumulative inventory of 90300 tons.

 

Domestic supply rebounds

 

On the supply side, due to the impact of price recovery factors in the early stage, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol began to recover, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in production.

 

Demand side: Downstream polyester load is high, and filament production maintains high operating load.

 

The downward cost support of crude oil is weak

 

Recently, international crude oil has continued to weaken, and the cost support for polyester grade ethylene glycol has weakened.

 

Future expectations

 

The previous surge in ethylene glycol prices was mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high for the year.

 

Recently, international crude oil prices have weakened and cost support has been weak. Coupled with the concentration of ports, inventory data has shown a short-term upward trend, and ethylene glycol prices have begun to fall.

 

The future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market has fallen this week. On Monday, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was 15550 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 15316.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.5%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The domestic titanium dioxide market prices have fallen this week. At present, the demand for titanium dioxide in the domestic market is weak, downstream demand is not good, and the market is sluggish. We should take a wait-and-see approach and be cautious about actual orders. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15000-16100 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

 

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has remained basically stable. At present, the spot market is tight, but the downstream purchasing atmosphere is average. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1550-1600 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2215-2180 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2350 yuan/ton. In the short term, the stability of Panxi titanium concentrate prices is the main focus, and the specific transaction prices will be discussed on a case by case basis.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market has declined this week, with weak downstream demand and light trading on the market. Traders should be cautious and wait, while holders should follow the market accordingly. It is expected that the market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there has been a slight rebound in the domestic formic acid market after the holiday. As of October 14th, the price of 85% formic acid in China was 2775 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.74% from 2675 yuan/ton before the holiday.

 

The market situation of raw material methanol is fluctuating at a high level, and the price structure is supported

 

From October 8th to 12th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2620 yuan/ton to 2551 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.64% during the period, a month on month increase of 6.06%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.89%. Before and after the National Day holiday, the domestic methanol market showed a significant increase followed by a decline, with relatively limited demand changes and an increase in supply. During the holiday period, the speed of truck delivery was limited, and after the holiday, methanol inventories in mainland China and ports showed accumulation. The price of methanol quickly fell back after reaching a high level.

 

The formic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current price of methanol, the main raw material, is running steadily, with strong cost support and strong supply and demand support. It is expected that the formic acid market will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid has declined after the holiday. On October 12th, the average price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, and on October 8th, the average price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 50 yuan/ton during the week, a decrease of 1.54%.

 

This week, the acetic acid market has been weak, and enterprise quotations have fallen. On the supply side, the acetic acid plant on site is operating normally, and the market supply continues to increase, leading to strong shipping sentiment among enterprises; On the downstream side, the enthusiasm for restocking after the holiday is not high, and market trading is weak. Holders of goods have lowered their prices to promote shipments, but market demand is limited, and the acetic acid market is weakly declining.

 

As of October 12th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On October 8th/ On October 12th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ -25

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -50

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -50

Jiangsu region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2825 yuan/ton/ -50

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2925 yuan/ton/ -50

The upstream methanol market fluctuated widely. From October 8th to 12th, the average price in the domestic market dropped from 2620 yuan/ton to 2551 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 2.64%. Returning from the holiday, the domestic methanol market rose and then fell back to a high level, before rebounding again. After the holiday, demand changes are limited, supply has increased, and inventory in mainland China and ports has accumulated. The on-site supply is strong and demand is weak, and the methanol market price is weak and operating.

 

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On October 12th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5297.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.20% compared to the price of 5472.50 yuan/ton on October 8th. The upstream acetic acid market is consolidating weakly, the cost support for acetic anhydride is weakening, downstream demand for acetic anhydride is poor after the holiday, market trading is limited, and industry sentiment is bearish. The acetic anhydride market fell during the week.

 

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity on the supply side is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, and the mentality of industry players is mainly bearish; Downstream and traders’ restocking sentiment is not high, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the supply on the market is strong and demand is weak. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be weak and consolidated, and downstream follow-up will be closely monitored in the future.

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