Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has weakened, and spot prices have often fallen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11300 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.29% compared to May 1st.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has recently shifted from rising to falling, with an average supply side load of around 69% for domestic EVA enterprises. The market supply is abundant, and under supply pressure, petrochemical plants dynamically adjust their load. The manufacturer’s information is insufficient, and the pricing has been lowered. Overall, the EVA supplier’s support for spot goods is average.

From the demand side perspective, recent EVA terminal enterprises have seen significant stability in production, with weak stocking conditions and a strong demand for purchasing. Traditional downstream industries such as foam shoe materials and cables are gradually entering the off-season market, with few new orders. The consumption level of photovoltaic materials has limited changes, and the increase in stocking is not significant. The negative atmosphere in the market remains, and actual trading is cautious. Merchants have a negative attitude and actively offer discounts and take orders. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have been operating weakly recently. The market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate has not changed much, and the support for the EVA market is relatively weak. The industry load has fluctuated and adjusted, with factory prices of petrochemical plants falling and supplier support declining. The overall development of the demand side is poor, dragging market momentum. It is expected that the spot price of EVA will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of May 24, 2024, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has declined. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 68000 to 69000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

According to Business Society, on May 24th, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate was 105400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.77% compared to the beginning of this month (108400.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, although the raw material lithium carbonate has declined, the cost side is still under pressure. Downstream electrolyte enterprises have weak demand, and overall market demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the lithium hexafluorophosphate market will be weak in the near future, and more information still needs to be paid attention to the raw material market.

This week (5.20-5.24), the domestic ethyl acetate market showed weak performance and prices continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 24th, the price of ethyl acetate fell from 6326.67 yuan/ton to 6290.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%, with a cumulative range of 40-50 yuan/ton. The main reason for the bearish performance of cost demand.

Market analysis: The supply and demand of ethyl acetate market continued to be sluggish this week. The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side is high, and the supply side is under pressure for shipments. Shandong’s main factories are offering discounts for shipments, resulting in a decrease in bidding prices; In terms of demand, terminal consumption is slow, with downstream buyers mainly seeking low prices and resisting high priced sources. The demand side continues to be bearish. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid continues to decline, and cost support is weak. It may continue to spread to the terminal in the later stage, affecting the downward trend of downstream ethyl ester.

In the future, with weak supply and demand of ethyl acetate and difficulty in improving short-term fundamentals, it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6200-6370 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 4975.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% and a month on month increase of 2.77%. The current price has dropped by 3.77% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and consolidating, and it can be seen from the above chart that there has been a slight increase in the recent potassium nitrate market. There have been no new orders signed for potassium chloride border trade, and the domestic potassium chloride market remains strong at a high level with strong cost support. Potassium nitrate manufacturers are shipping normally, with slight fluctuations in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4700-4800 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

This week, the domestic potassium chloride market experienced high volatility. As of this weekend, potassium chloride has been offered at 2516 yuan/ton. The domestic potassium chloride market continues its previous consolidation trend, with a calm market performance. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the moderate arrival volume this month and the basic balance between supply and demand in the domestic market, there has been no surplus situation in the market, and the price remains rigid and strong. However, downstream factories generally have a resistance mentality towards high prices, and the current market is in a weak season. Most enterprises have replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has remained strong at a high level, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers across the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts from Business Society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.).

According to the commodity market analysis system, from May 13th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9681 yuan/ton to 9687 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.06% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.26%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.28%. The domestic cyclohexanone market is expected to rebound, with the raw material pure benzene operating stronger, increasing cost pressure, downstream on-demand procurement, and a stronger market consolidation

Cost side, raw material pure benzene: The market trend of pure benzene is narrow. As of May 22nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8833.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The operating load of cyclohexanone is 66.14%, with a weekly production of 103000 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous week. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of caprolactam has risen, and downstream PA6 polymerization has remained at a high level. The market demand for caprolactam is stable, and downstream factories are restocking according to demand. Confidence in the caprolactam market is relatively strong. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, raw materials tend to fluctuate strongly, cost pressure is high, downstream demand is average, and market spot supply is stable. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate in the short term.