Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China fell first and then rose this week. On May 31st, the sulfur price was 1056.67 yuan/ton, which is a 0.31% overall decrease compared to the sulfur price of 1060.00 yuan/ton on May 25th.

This week, the sulfur market is weak and consolidating. The downstream sulfuric acid market is weak, the market is not operating high, the demand for sulfur is limited, refinery shipments are poor, and sulfur prices continue to decline weakly. In the later stage, there will be refinery equipment maintenance in Shandong region, and the supply of market goods has decreased. The willingness of operators to increase prices has increased, and some refineries have slightly increased their prices based on their own inventory situation. However, during the off-season of downstream demand, there is insufficient support for good sulfur, and the overall market trend is still weak. As of the 31st, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is between 1050-1070 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1000-1110 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market is operating weakly and steadily, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 247.50 yuan/ton on May 31, which is unchanged from the price of 247.50 yuan/ton on May 25. The domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly stable, with low production and low enterprise inventory. However, downstream demand is weak, and market trading is not good, which to some extent suppresses the rise of sulfuric acid prices. There is a clear supply-demand game on the market, and the sulfuric acid price trend is temporarily stable.

The downstream market for ammonium phosphate showed a strong upward trend, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 3150.00 yuan/ton on May 31, an increase of 3.05% compared to the price of 3056.67 yuan/ton on May 25. The demand for ammonium phosphate summer fertilizer market is strong, with a large amount of factories waiting to be shipped. Manufacturers are in a tight supply situation, and most of them are suspending orders and executing orders waiting to be shipped. The market demand is improving, and at the same time, the raw material phosphate ore market is strong, with stable cost support. The price of ammonium phosphate continues to rise.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, the supply pressure in the sulfur market has weakened to some extent, and some refineries have increased their willingness to increase prices. However, downstream demand for sulfuric acid is sluggish, and on-site trading is weak. Although the phosphate fertilizer market is improving, the transmission support for upstream sulfur costs is limited. In addition, the upstream and downstream are affected by buying up but not falling sentiment. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will observe and consolidate in the short term, with prices stabilizing slightly. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 30th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6925.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47% compared to May 1st (the reference price of acrylic acid was 6825.00 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that the market remained stagnant after a slight increase in acrylic acid prices in May.

In the first ten days, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly and rose, with cost support still acceptable. The factory mainly executes pending orders in an orderly manner, and the supply side is tight. Downstream follow-up and replenishment are appropriate after the holiday, and new orders are smoothly executed, with no pressure on the market to increase prices.

In mid month, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated slightly, with limited cost support. The supply of goods in the Shandong market is sufficient, but the demand side lacks follow-up motivation. Enterprises are actively shipping, with some discounts to promote transactions. The supply in the East China market is relatively low, and production enterprises tend to offer stable market views. Downstream buyers have a cautious attitude towards buying at high prices, choosing to buy at low prices as needed. The rise in acrylic acid is weak, and the market is gradually under pressure.

In the latter half of the year, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly, and the cost of acrylic acid fluctuated with the price of raw materials, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The inventory pressure on the supply side is controllable, and market transactions are in high demand. Many factories maintain a stable trend, and dealers mainly negotiate according to their own situation.

Raw Material Propylene: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the quotation for propylene was 6860.6 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.88% compared to the quotation of 6800.6 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and stabilized, providing sufficient support for the acrylic acid market.

Future Market Forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current market performance is average, and companies have a positive attitude towards shipping. In the future, the price of raw material propylene may consolidate at a high level, and short-term cost support may still exist. Market transactions may continue to be dominated by rigid demand. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize slightly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and rose in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the price of plasticizer DOTP was 10250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.67% compared to the DOTP price of 9887.50 yuan/ton on May 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride has risen, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, the cost of plasticizer has increased, the profit of plasticizer DOTP has decreased, the production of plasticizer DOTP enterprises has decreased, and the supply of plasticizer DOTP has decreased.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9950 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% compared to the quotation of 9660 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of isooctanol was at the bottom of the market, and there was limited room for its decline. Since the domestic isooctanol market hit bottom in mid April, the price center of isooctanol has slowly shifted upwards. From the demand side, the rotating maintenance of downstream plasticizers and isooctyl acrylate units in May resulted in low continuity of buying, and the fluctuation range of isooctyl alcohol narrowed. The market for isooctanol lacks continuous upward momentum, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated slightly.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased in May

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 6.06% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 7720 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho benzene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In the middle and late stages, the phthalic anhydride plant underwent centralized maintenance, and its daily production capacity utilization rate has dropped to 59%. The supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, supporting the rise in phthalic anhydride prices and the cost of plasticizer DOTP has increased.

In May, the PTA price of raw materials first fell and then rose

According to the PTA commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 29th, The PTA quotation is 5972 yuan/ton, which is a decrease followed by an increase of 0.53% compared to the PTA price of 5940.50 yuan/ton on May 1st; The PTA price fluctuated and increased by 2.89% compared to 5804 yuan/ton on May 14th. PTA manufacturers have a lot of maintenance, PTA supply has decreased; Raw materials are released, and PX manufacturers in the international market have frequent short stops, PX supply is tightening, with significant support from rising raw material prices, PTA cost support, PTA gains provide significant support.

Expected decrease in downstream demand

Affected by the increase in planned maintenance enterprises, The production of PVC has decreased. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises is around 50%, a decrease compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Short term fundamental supply has decreased due to maintenance, and domestic and international demand remains weak, especially in the export market, making it more difficult to accept orders, The supply and demand of PVC market are weak; In the medium to long term, The policy stimulus in the PVC market to reduce inventory and quantify inventory is difficult to bring benefits to new construction projects. The real estate market has boosted demand for building materials, and the spot fundamentals are cautious and cautious. There is not much planned maintenance in June, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation, resulting in increased supply and poor demand performance, which has a certain drag on the market. The supply and demand in foreign markets are weak due to maintenance and off-season constraints. Overall, The supply and demand of PVC and downstream markets are weak, and the support for plasticizer demand remains weak.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the production of plasticizer DOTP manufacturers has decreased, and upstream isooctanol manufacturers and downstream PVC product enterprises have experienced varying degrees of maintenance and production decline. The overall supply of plasticizer sector is tight; Downstream production has decreased, and downstream demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. In the future, with the completion of enterprise maintenance and the double increase of supply and demand, the supply of plasticizers is sufficient and the demand is recovering; The rise in raw material prices has slowed down, and the support for the increase in plasticizer costs has weakened; Downstream demand support is increasing, and the price of plasticizer DOTP will consolidate strongly in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has weakened, and spot prices have often fallen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11300 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.29% compared to May 1st.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has recently shifted from rising to falling, with an average supply side load of around 69% for domestic EVA enterprises. The market supply is abundant, and under supply pressure, petrochemical plants dynamically adjust their load. The manufacturer’s information is insufficient, and the pricing has been lowered. Overall, the EVA supplier’s support for spot goods is average.

From the demand side perspective, recent EVA terminal enterprises have seen significant stability in production, with weak stocking conditions and a strong demand for purchasing. Traditional downstream industries such as foam shoe materials and cables are gradually entering the off-season market, with few new orders. The consumption level of photovoltaic materials has limited changes, and the increase in stocking is not significant. The negative atmosphere in the market remains, and actual trading is cautious. Merchants have a negative attitude and actively offer discounts and take orders. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have been operating weakly recently. The market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate has not changed much, and the support for the EVA market is relatively weak. The industry load has fluctuated and adjusted, with factory prices of petrochemical plants falling and supplier support declining. The overall development of the demand side is poor, dragging market momentum. It is expected that the spot price of EVA will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of May 24, 2024, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has declined. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 68000 to 69000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

According to Business Society, on May 24th, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate was 105400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.77% compared to the beginning of this month (108400.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, although the raw material lithium carbonate has declined, the cost side is still under pressure. Downstream electrolyte enterprises have weak demand, and overall market demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the lithium hexafluorophosphate market will be weak in the near future, and more information still needs to be paid attention to the raw material market.