The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 14th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 10250 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.44% compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 7th. The market for plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride has declined, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, plasticizer DOP enterprises are operating steadily, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient.

 

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

 
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 14th, the quotation for isooctanol was 10040 yuan/ton, a volatile decrease of 1.18% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on June 7th, which was 10160 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and downstream factories are facing difficulties in sales. Enterprises have average enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Shandong’s large factories have average shipments, while the price of isooctanol has declined narrowly, with downstream purchases mainly focused on small orders. Isooctanol manufacturers have poor shipments, and downstream customers have a strong demand for purchases, weakening the support for the rise of isooctanol.

 

Future expectations

 

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen this week, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; Downstream manufacturers are expected to rise, while demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. In the future, the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall, the price of phthalic anhydride will fall, the cost of raw materials will decrease, downstream demand is expected to rebound, and the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and stabilize.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of isopropanol rose first and then fell this week, and overall, the price has increased. Last Friday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8632 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 8680 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.56% during the week.

 

The market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. This week’s market situation is still good, with many downstream inquiries, so be cautious when purchasing goods. Upstream acetone prices have increased, with strong support for isopropanol costs, and market prices have followed suit. The downstream market has limited acceptance capacity in the later stage, resulting in a price correction. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 8300-8600 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8900-9000 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market has declined this week. Last Friday, the average price of acetone was 8062.5 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price is 8262.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.48%. At present, downstream procurement sentiment is good, factory inventory is low, and the acetone market continues to rise.

 

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week, with an overall decline. Last Friday, the average domestic propylene price was 6854.6 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 6914.6 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.88%. At present, the inventory of enterprises is low, and downstream demand for goods is high. It is expected that the market will tend to strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the market price of isopropanol rose first and then fell this week, and overall, the price has increased. The acetone market is on the rise, while the propylene market is experiencing an increase in prices, providing strong cost support. However, downstream orders are generally accepted, with a focus on demand. It is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will temporarily stabilize, consolidate and operate.

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In May 2024, the prices of upstream raw material dissolved pulp remained strong, providing support to the market. However, downstream cotton yarn enterprises maintained their rigid demand and had thin profits. They did not have a high willingness to stock raw material viscose staple fibers, and there was no obvious improvement in demand. Downstream yarn factories mainly consumed inventory, with limited release of new orders on site. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers mainly executed shipments; Some factories have tight shipments, and there is no inventory pressure on enterprises. The atmosphere of observation on site is becoming stronger. The mainstream market price is between 12900-13200 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable.

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in May 2024, the price of viscose short fibers remained weak and stable. As of May 31st, the domestic ex factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month’s price of 13160 yuan/ton, which is basically stable.

 

In terms of supply: In May 2024, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained stable, and production remained stable. The overall market supply has slightly decreased. The inventory of various manufacturers is still at a low level, and some factories have tight shipments. There is currently no inventory pressure, and there is some positive support on the supply side.

 

In terms of demand: In May 2024, the downstream cotton yarn market will mainly execute orders, with little price change. There is not a high willingness for inventory of raw material viscose short fibers, and there is no obvious improvement in demand. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited.

 

In terms of cost: In May 2024, the market price of raw material dissolution slurry remained stable, providing support to the market. The market prices of auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remained stable, and the cost center remained stable. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is around 7700 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable. Actual orders are negotiated.

 

Downstream cotton yarn market

 

In May 2024, downstream cotton yarn was weakly consolidated, with market orders being the main focus. Some manufacturers adjusted prices narrowly, resulting in a slight decline in overall prices. Overall shipments were average, inventory was basically maintained, and demand side performance was weak. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and actual transactions on the market are limited. As of May 31st, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 0.29%.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

The prices of upstream raw materials in the market are strong and stable, with low inventory from various manufacturers and tight shipments from some factories, which provides support for the market. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, and they mainly deliver early orders. The overall speed of market sales may continue to be stable. The replenishment cycle for downstream yarn enterprises is approaching, but their acceptance of viscose short fibers is limited. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is gradually increasing, and it is expected that the short-term viscose short fiber market has a high probability of stabilizing prices. The cotton yarn market will mainly operate weakly and steadily, and the price of viscose short fibers is expected to be between 13000-13200 yuan/ton.

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The plasticizer sector continued to rise slightly in May

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the plasticizer sector reached 816 points on June 3rd, an increase of 3 points from the previous trading day, and an increase of 33 points or 4.21% from the plasticizer sector index of 783 points on May 1st. The plasticizer sector index slightly increased in May, and the plasticizer sector index continued to rise.

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the plasticizer sector saw a full increase in products in May, with a significant increase in the upstream of the main plasticizer sector and a slight increase in plasticizer products; The market for plasticizers has risen.

 

May saw a slight increase in plasticizer products

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the increase in plasticizer products narrowed in May. As of May 31st, the price of DOP was 10112.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.32% compared to the price of 9787.50 yuan/ton on May 1st; On May 31st, the price of DOTP was 10137.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.53% compared to the price of 9887.50 yuan/ton on May 1st; On May 31st, the DBP price was 9533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.10% compared to the DBP price of 9337.50 yuan/ton on May 1st. Plasticizer enterprises operate at a high operating rate and have sufficient supply. The main raw material prices have risen, supported by the cost of plasticizer raw materials, and the prices of plasticizer products have continued to rise. With the stimulation of macroeconomic policies, the demand for plasticizers has rebounded, and the price increase of plasticizers in May has provided significant support.

 

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in May

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the quotation for isooctanol was 9900 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.48% compared to the quotation of 9660 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of isooctanol was at the bottom of the market, and there was limited room for its decline. Since the domestic isooctanol market hit bottom in mid April, the price center of isooctanol has slowly shifted upwards. From the demand side, the rotating maintenance of downstream plasticizers and isooctyl acrylate units in May resulted in low continuity of buying, and the fluctuation range of isooctyl alcohol narrowed. The market for isooctanol lacks continuous upward momentum, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated slightly.

 
The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in May

 

According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of May 31, the quoted price of n-butanol was 8366.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.81% compared to the price of n-butanol on May 1, which was 7833.33 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of n-butanol are weak, and the overall market is operating quietly. In the first and second half of the year, some downstream small areas require replenishment, and the focus of the n-butanol market is slightly upward. The overall production capacity utilization rate of n-butanol has not changed much, the overall market supply is stable, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is average, the main factories of n-butanol have stable shipments, downstream demand for n-butanol has rebounded, and the price of n-butanol has fluctuated and risen.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose in May

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 31, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.06% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1, which was 7720 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho benzene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In the middle and late stages, the phthalic anhydride unit underwent centralized maintenance, and its daily production capacity utilization rate has dropped to 59%. The supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, supporting the rise in phthalic anhydride prices, and the cost line of plasticizers has slightly increased.

 

In May, the PTA price of raw materials first fell and then rose

 

According to the PTA commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the PTA quotation was 6010 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased compared to the PTA price of 5940.50 yuan/ton on May 1st, with an increase of 1.17%; The PTA price fluctuated and increased by 3.55% compared to 5804 yuan/ton on May 14th. PTA manufacturers have frequent maintenance, resulting in a decrease in PTA supply; The release of raw materials has led to a high number of short stops by PX manufacturers in the international market, resulting in a tight supply of PX and significant support for rising raw material prices, PTA costs, and PTA prices.

 

Expected decrease in downstream demand

 

Due to the increase in planned maintenance enterprises, PVC production has decreased. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises is around 50%, a decrease compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Short term fundamental supply has decreased due to maintenance, and domestic and international demand has remained weak, especially in the export market. The difficulty of accepting orders has increased, resulting in weak supply and demand in the PVC market; In the medium to long term, policy incentives in the PVC market to reduce inventory and quantify inventory are difficult to bring benefits to new construction projects. Real estate has boosted demand in the building materials market, and spot fundamentals are cautious and cautious. There is not much planned maintenance in June, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation, resulting in increased supply and poor demand performance, which has a certain drag on the market. The supply and demand in foreign markets are weak due to maintenance and off-season constraints. Overall, the supply and demand of PVC and downstream markets are weak, and the support for plasticizer demand remains weak.

 

Future expectations

 

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in May, plasticizer manufacturers saw a decrease in production, with upstream isooctanol manufacturers and downstream PVC product enterprises experiencing varying degrees of maintenance and production decline. The overall supply of plasticizers is tight; Downstream production has decreased, and downstream demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. In the future, with the completion of enterprise maintenance and the double increase of supply and demand, the supply of plasticizers is sufficient and the demand is recovering; The rise in raw material prices has slowed down, and the support for the increase in plasticizer costs has weakened; Downstream demand support is increasing, and prices in the plasticizer sector will consolidate strongly in the future.

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According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite remained stable in May. As of May 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7550 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the price of 7550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and remained unchanged compared to the previous month.

 

In May, the domestic ice crystal market was in a wait-and-see operation, with major ice crystal enterprises showing significant stability in their quotations and minor fluctuations. In May, raw material prices continued to rise strongly, putting continuous cost pressure on the ice crystal market. Most ice crystal enterprises have firm and stable quotations, while some enterprises are affected by costs and manufacturers are under production pressure, resulting in an increase in ice crystal prices. Although upstream prices continue to rise, due to strong resistance towards high priced ice crystals and limited market trading, downstream enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and insufficient demand suppresses the rise in ice crystal prices. Therefore, most ice crystal manufacturers remain stable in their quotations despite strong raw material prices.

 

The upstream fluorite market continued to rise in May. As of May 31st, the average price of fluorite was 3806.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.57% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3675.00 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with upstream mining being tight and backward mines continuing to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains difficult. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, which has restricted fluorite enterprises from starting production. The supply of goods on site is tight, and fluorite prices continue to rise.

 

Market forecast: The price of ice crystal raw materials will continue to remain strong, and ice crystal production will be under pressure, with good support for raw materials; Downstream resistance is strong, demand for purchasing is light, and ice crystal enterprises have poor shipments; The supply-demand game on the market is obvious, and the rise of ice crystals is weak. It is expected that the ice crystal market will remain stagnant in the later stage, and prices may rise slightly. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

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