According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been weak and adjusted since November. As of November 19th, the average market price in East China was 4797 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from the beginning of the month.

In terms of supply, PTA has started to accumulate inventory. According to statistics, the current social inventory is around 4.01 million tons, and maintenance facilities have been restarted one after another, increasing expectations of loose supply. The current industry operating rate is around 85%.

International crude oil prices have fallen sharply, providing downward support for PTA costs. As of November 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.17 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.30 per barrel. There is an expectation of further increase in PX supply in Asia, and the pressure on domestic PX inventory is rising. In recent years, negotiations for annual contracts have begun, and a cautious trading atmosphere is evident.

The current off-season for polyester demand has led to a decrease in rigid demand for PTA. With the end of the shopping festival, the terminal textile industry focuses on the urgent need for e-commerce orders, the clearance of raw fabric inventory, and the procurement of raw materials. Most manufacturers have reported that the order volume this year is lower than in previous years, and there is some support for domestic demand for thermal insulation fabrics. Considering the subsequent tariff issues for foreign trade orders, some orders are issued in advance but can only be processed on an average basis. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined to 76%.

Business analysts believe that with the end of the peak consumption season, demand will be weak in the future, and there is an expectation of weak supply and demand. Due to the weakening of cost support, it is expected that PTA prices will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 11th to 18th, MTBE prices rose from 5275 yuan/ton to 5412 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.61% during the cycle, remaining stable on a month on month basis and a year-on-year decrease of 16.89%. The price of MTBE in the domestic market has fluctuated and risen. As the delivery period of gasoline shipments approaches, the enthusiasm of industry players for purchasing relevant gasoline raw materials has significantly increased. MTBE manufacturers have followed suit and pushed up prices. Coupled with the gradual shutdown of some facilities, the favorable trend of reduced resource supply has begun to emerge, and MTBE prices have significantly increased.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, and the main negative factors are market concerns that Trump’s future policies will drag down the economy and demand, as well as push up US crude oil production, coupled with easing tensions in the Middle East. As of November 15th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.04 per barrel, a decrease of $1.52 or 2.1%.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, the temperature in northern regions is gradually decreasing, and the private car travel rate of the public is increasing. At the same time, there are still some gasoline ship orders supporting it, and industry players still have a certain degree of enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: The operating rate of the equipment has increased. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 15th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $3/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $680.99-682.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $2.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $797.49-797.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $11.48/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $754.82-755.18/ton (213.13-213.23 cents/gallon).

In the future forecast, the shutdown of some manufacturers in the early stage will still affect the recent production, and the short-term resource supply is still relatively tight. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to operate at a relatively high level in the short term.

This week (11.9-11.15), the nickel price market has been falling all the way. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, spot nickel was reported at 124666 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.68%.

At present, the situation of oversupply in the market continues, coupled with the influence of macro factors, prices are under pressure and declining. The market transaction situation has weakened compared to the middle of the week, and the bearish and wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Users’ urgent needs can be sustained, but the degree of shipment is uneven.

Macroscopically, the election sentiment of the new US president has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and the end of the nickel price rally. Due to concerns about the impact of the incoming US president’s trade policies on the Chinese economy, a major consumer of metals, the London market fell across the board, affecting the continuous expansion of the domestic nickel price decline.

Supply side: Foreign inventory continues to grow, domestic inventory growth pressure has eased, and the market supply exceeds demand situation continues. As of November 15th, the quantity of Shanghai nickel goods that meet the delivery quality is 30472 tons, a decrease of 744 tons from last Friday; On November 15th, LME nickel inventory was 154434 tons, an increase of 4098 tons from last Friday.

On the demand side, stainless steel saw a slight decline during the week. On November 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the beginning of the month. Due to weak demand performance, the inventory decline narrowed, and merchants tended to ship at low prices. Downstream customers maintained price pressure and made on-demand purchases, resulting in overall weak trading.

Market forecast: Inventory pressure and price resistance still exist, and we expect macroeconomic factors to improve. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda stabilized on November 12th. On November 12th, the average price of caustic soda in the Shandong region was 1022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45% from November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and operating. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1020-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.

Since October, with the support of equipment maintenance and load reduction in the early stage of caustic soda production in the East China region, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in the region has increased. From the perspective of enterprise inventory, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low. Downstream demand is expected to see a stable, medium to strong trend in domestic alumina prices in the short term, with good demand for caustic soda, driving up caustic soda prices. However, looking at the Shandong region in November, the gradual restoration of maintenance facilities has led to a relatively abundant supply. And with the price increase, downstream caustic soda is resistant to caustic soda prices, and caustic soda prices tend to run steadily.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda maintenance companies are gradually resuming production, supply is becoming increasingly abundant, and downstream companies are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the price increase of caustic soda. Overall, it is expected that the operation will mainly focus on consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 1st to November 11th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12325 yuan/ton to 10937 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 11.26% during the period. This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market showed a weak trend, which had a weak impact on the spot market mentality. The downstream market had a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacked demand support. The butadiene market trend was weak this week, and Sinopec lowered it to 11000 yuan/ton. As of November 11th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region was 10900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1000 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.

Supply side: The comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much recently, and the comprehensive operating rate of butadiene has not changed much.

Demand side: Recently (11.1-11.11), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 15030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% from 15580 yuan/ton on November 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of November 11th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14850~15250 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak, and port cargo sources have continued to accumulate, resulting in loose market supply. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been generally weak in recent times. Overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.