According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 15, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8100 yuan/ton. Compared with July 8 (reference price of n-butanol was 8500 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.71%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that recently (7.8-7.15), the focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China has shown a downward trend. As of July 15th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 8100-8300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

In terms of demand: Recently, the downstream demand for n-butanol has been average. After the phase of demand ends, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is relatively light, and the weak downstream market for n-butyl acetate has also weakened the support for n-butanol.

Supply side: Currently, the overall supply of n-butanol is loose, with sufficient inventory and insufficient market support from the supply side.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ July 15th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 8000-8200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8000-8200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8700-8800 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8400-8600 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading volume of n-butanol in the market is light, and the atmosphere of actual inquiries is relatively quiet. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, will mainly adjust and operate in multiple intervals, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9760 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.91% compared to the price of 9850 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to the price of 9860 yuan/ton of isooctanol quoted on July 8th at the beginning of this week, the price has decreased by 1.01%; Compared to the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased by 0.51%. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. Downstream factories purchased according to demand, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for raw material procurement temporarily stabilized. Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards. The new orders in the isooctanol market increased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol still exists.

This week, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and rose

According to the Business Society’s propylene commodity market analysis system, as of July 12th, the price of propylene was 7195.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.42% compared to the price of 7165.75 yuan/ton on July 5th; Compared to July 8th, the price of propylene fluctuated and rose by 7113.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%; Compared to July 1st, the price of propylene fluctuated and rose by 7133.25/ton, with an increase of 0.88%. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, propane prices have fluctuated and risen, and propylene cost support has increased. This week, propylene prices have fluctuated and risen; The downstream production of propylene is stable, downstream customers purchase at low prices, propylene manufacturers have average shipments, the supply and demand of propylene market are weak, and propylene prices fluctuate and rise.

Downstream plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9912.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.75% compared to the DOP price of 9987.50 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to Monday, July 8th, the price of 10000 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 0.88%; Compared to the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st, it first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.51%. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen this week. Downstream manufacturers are in the off-season, with low production and poor demand for plasticizers, which weakens the support for the rise in plasticizers.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, the price of propylene has fluctuated and risen, while the cost support of isooctanol still exists; In terms of supply, isooctanol manufacturers offer discounts on sales, resulting in an increase in new orders and shipments; In terms of demand, the prices of downstream plasticizers of isooctanol have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in poor downstream demand. Overall, the tight supply and demand of isooctanol are not good, and cost support still exists. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate showed a “continuous decline” trend in June. On June 31st, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 95552 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.23% compared to the average price of 103000 yuan/ton on June 1st. On June 31st, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 10188 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.42% compared to the average price of 109400 yuan/ton on June 1st.

On the supply side, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June was 64868 tons, an increase of 2330 tons compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 58%; Among them, the production of battery grade lithium carbonate reached 41075 tons, an increase of 1070 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 56%; The production of industrial grade lithium carbonate reached 23793 tons, an increase of 1260 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 61%.

Specifications/ Production in June (tons)/ Production increase in June (tons)/ YoY growth rate of production in June

Battery level/ 41075./1070./56%

Industrial grade/ 23793./1260./61%

The operating rates of each major production area are gradually increasing, and there is a certain short-term increase in supply. The supply side is expected to continue to stack up.

Cost side: Some top lithium salt enterprises were in the stage of increasing production in June, and some small and medium-sized mica smelters received increased OEM orders, resulting in an increase in the total production of lithium carbonate at the lithium mica end in June. In terms of salt lakes, most lithium carbonate production enterprises at the salt lake end were in a peak production period in June, and there have been no recent changes in production conditions, resulting in relatively stable production.

On the demand side, the monthly demand for lithium carbonate in June was 68053 tons, a decrease of 4738 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 7.04%. The production schedule of the battery factory in June is expected to remain basically unchanged compared to the previous month, while major factories still rely on long-term cooperative customer supply as the main rigid procurement. According to research, the overall production schedule of material factories in July slightly increased compared to June. In terms of the terminal market, according to preliminary estimates from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 970000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 28% and a month on month increase of 8%. The demand for new energy vehicles is about to enter the off-season, and power battery manufacturers are maintaining production reduction and inventory reduction, while maintaining essential procurement or delaying delivery of raw materials.

Demand in June (tons)/ The decrease in demand in June (tons)/ Growth rate of demand in June

68053./4738./7.04%

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, the rapid growth in supply combined with slowing demand has led to a continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices in June, and the subsequent improvement in demand may not be until August. In mid July, warehouse receipts will undergo centralized cancellation, which will further put pressure on the spot market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of natural rubber in China has weakened recently (7.1-7.8). As of July 8th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% from 14557 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in domestic and foreign raw material production areas is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials has been falling all the way, causing cost drag on the domestic natural rubber market. As of July 8th, the price of Thai adhesive was 63.50 Thai baht/kg, a decrease from 70.45 Thai baht/kg at the end of June; As of the 8th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 13600 yuan/ton, significantly lower than 14500 yuan/ton at the end of June; The purchase price of all latex raw materials for glue production is around 13600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the end of June.

On the other hand, natural rubber inventories are slowly being depleted, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the overall market. As of July 7, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 493000 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.89%.

Downstream tire production is temporarily stable, with demand facing strong support from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of July 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.2%.

Market forecast: The current domestic and foreign raw material supply is gradually increasing, and the high price of natural rubber raw materials is falling back; In addition, downstream tire companies are currently operating steadily and are cautious in purchasing high priced goods; Overall, the natural rubber market is expected to narrow down in the short term after a recent high decline.

On July 5th, the National Grain and Oil Information Center reported that the Malaysian Palm Oil Authority will release monthly data on July 10th (next Wednesday). Currently, data from multiple market monitoring agencies shows that Malaysia’s palm oil production in July decreased by about 5% month on month, ending the previous three consecutive months of growth; The export volume has also slowed down compared to last month, with a decrease of 12% to 16% month on month. Based on feedback from the production area, it is expected that the palm oil storage in Malaysia will stabilize and slightly increase by the end of June, at around 1.8 million tons.