1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range this week (12.09-13), with prices first falling and then rising. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.20% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Due to limited positive news on fundamentals this week, there has been little change in the crude oil and futures markets. The price range of PVC has fluctuated, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. As of the weekend, the price has slightly stopped falling, and some markets have slightly rebounded, but it has not risen above the level at the beginning of the week. On the one hand, due to the low operation of upstream crude oil prices, ethylene has shown weak performance. In addition, the futures market has fallen, and the spot PVC market has been linked to a downward trend. Coupled with loose supply and demand, most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, and it is difficult for dealers to improve their offers. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4900-5080 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the decline and increase of calcium carbide since December have been zero. The upstream lacks positive guidance for PVC, and overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week is weak, with limited support. As downstream PVC falls back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the weak balance between PVC supply and demand is the main factor, and the operating rate of manufacturers remains high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory are high. On the cost side, the ability to drive upstream carbide prices is limited, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% from the reference average price of 1881 yuan/ton on December 6th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have slightly adjusted and fallen. As of December 12th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1760-1790 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1785 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1885 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, both supply and demand in the urea market have been weak. On the supply side, there has been a decrease in urea market supply this week, but there is still a significant amount of inventory in the market. In terms of demand, downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, market transactions are sluggish, and the trading atmosphere is not good.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has recently undergone a narrow adjustment. At present, there is no positive support in the market, and the market adopts a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the stable consolidation and operation of domestic urea market prices will be the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 11th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9162 yuan/ton. On December 1st, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 212 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.37%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early December, the domestic cyclohexanone market experienced an upward trend, with prices continuously approaching high levels and low prices gradually disappearing from the market. As of December 11th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong, China is around 9100-9200 yuan/ton, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Inner Mongolia is around 9050-9100 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for cyclohexanone in South China is around 9300-9400 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost: Recently, the market for pure benzene, the upstream raw material of cyclohexanone, has steadily risen, providing increasing cost support for cyclohexanone. The cyclohexanone market has also continued to rise with the increase in raw materials.

In terms of supply and demand: As we enter December, the supply side of cyclohexanone is relatively tight, and there is less pressure on spot supply. Downstream demand is mainly for essential purchases. The overall transmission of supply and demand in the cyclohexanone market is relatively smooth.

In terms of upstream pure benzene: Entering December, the overall market situation of upstream pure benzene is on the rise. On December 10th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7586.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% compared to December 1st (7338.00 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and some downstream companies have a wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (12.2-12.6), with an average market price of 242190 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 243700 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%.

Recently, the tin price range has fluctuated slightly and increased. The current macroeconomic situation has a complex impact on tin prices, and paying attention to the policy attitude and ideas of the Central Economic Work Conference may have an impact on market sentiment. The impact of the shutdown of upstream Myanmar tin mines has not yet been transmitted to the smelting end, but considering that the supply of raw materials from the mining end is still biased towards demand.

Fundamentally, Indonesia currently exports more tin ingots to China, but domestic tin ore supply is further tightening. On the tin consumption side, automobile and household appliances maintain a high growth rate, but the overall demand’s support for tin prices is not yet significant. The social inventory of Shanghai tin has dropped to 6920 tons, a new low for the year. The inventory changes further highlight the tight supply in the current tin market, which has provided some support for tin prices.

Overall analysis shows that tin prices are currently in a short-term period of consolidation and bottoming out. Supported by factors such as a decrease in inventory and a rebound in spot market trading, tin prices are expected to continue to rebound. But the lack of consumer motivation affects the rebound momentum.

This week (December 2-6, 2024), downstream demand is limited, and the trend of the adhesive short fiber market remains stable. The market price of the main raw material dissolved slurry in the upstream remains stable and firm, with low inventory levels in the market. There is resistance from the downstream market, and demand for purchasing is limited. Under the game of positive and negative factors, the market price of adhesive short fibers has temporarily stabilized and consolidated.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the domestic factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13820 yuan/ton, and the price continues to remain stable.

In terms of cost: This week (December 2-6, 2024), the market price of adhesive short fiber raw material dissolution slurry remained stable, while the market price of auxiliary liquid alkali continued to decline. The market price of sulfuric acid continued to rise, and the market price of raw materials fluctuated. The average production cost of adhesive short fiber decreased.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained at around 84.9% this week, with a slight decrease in production compared to last week. During the week, some adhesive short fibers in Shandong region were parked for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply.

In terms of inventory, the supply of adhesive short fibers in the market has decreased, but due to the end of previous orders, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and the speed of on-site shipment has slowed down, resulting in a narrow increase in inventory levels.

On the demand side: The downstream cotton yarn market has poor delivery speed and price stagnation is the main issue. Downstream yarn factories are facing a shortage of new orders, resulting in a continuous accumulation of finished product inventory and a low enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials. They are holding onto essential orders from multiple sources.

Future forecast

The main material dissolution slurry market is expected to continue its strong trend, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid markets are expected to consolidate within a certain range, resulting in average cost support. Due to equipment maintenance by some manufacturers, the supply of adhesive short fiber industry may still decrease, and market inventory may continue to be low, resulting in less pressure on on-site inventory; The demand in the terminal market has not improved significantly, and there is an increasing trend in the inventory level of yarn enterprises. Business analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic adhesive short fiber market will experience a slight weak consolidation, with prices expected to be between 13700-13900 yuan/ton.