According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade has rebounded this week, with an average price of 7192 yuan/ton as of July 12th.

Raw material market: Recently, international oil prices have rebounded. As of the close on July 18th, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $82.82 per barrel, a decrease of 0.04%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for September delivery closed at $85.11 per barrel, an increase of 0.04%. The decline in crude oil and raw material prices during the week, insufficient support for PET costs, and no significant improvement in on-site trading have also created resistance to the continued upward trend of the PET market. In terms of PTA, PTA prices have fallen this week, and currently the mainstream PTA quotation is around 5800-5900 yuan/ton for self pickup. As the operating rate rebounds and PTA fundamentals decline, it is expected that prices will remain volatile next week.

After entering the second half of the year, facing the increasing losses in the industry, PET factories have begun to take measures to reduce production and maintain prices, and plans to put new production capacity into operation may also be delayed. Recently, a 150000 ton polyester bottle chip device in East China has been shut down for maintenance, and there are no confirmed questions when driving. Another 250000 ton polyester bottle slicing device in East China has been converted to slicing. Two sets of 650000 ton polyester bottle chip devices in Zhejiang have been shut down for maintenance for 45 days.

The third quarter of 2024 coincides with summer vacation, and the peak travel season is driving an increase in travel volume. At the same time, the concert economy and industry conferences have all exploded at an unexpected speed, and it is expected that the number of domestic tourists will increase by about 150% year-on-year in the second half of the year. High frequency personnel turnover drives consumption in the soft drink industry and catering industry. In addition, the demand for PET sheets and other packaging, oil and seasoning packaging industries will also maintain a stable growth trend. The downstream demand side has also shown relatively optimistic expectations. Especially in the soft drink packaging industry, as the main downstream consumer group of polyester bottle chips, its consumption is expected to continue to grow with the increase of personnel mobility and the recovery of terminal consumption.

In the third quarter of 2024, the national summer vacation will stimulate public travel enthusiasm, and the tourism market will usher in a comprehensive revival. It is expected that the number of tourists will increase by 150% year-on-year. At the same time, the prosperity of concert economy and industry conferences promotes cultural exchange and economic development. The high-frequency personnel flow has driven the rise of the soft drink and catering industries, which in turn has led to a surge in demand for packaging materials such as PET sheets, resulting in stable growth in the food packaging industry. In the future packaging industry, as the main downstream consumer group of polyester bottle chips, the consumption volume is expected to continue to rise with the prosperity of the market. Despite the continuous reduction in supply and optimistic demand expectations, the polyester bottle chip market is still under pressure, with weak price increases. This is mainly due to multiple factors such as fierce market competition, reduced processing fees, and increased uncertainty in the international market.

The PET analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the future, with the further recovery of downstream consumption and changes in raw material costs, the PET market is expected to form a new price trend. However, in the context of intense supply-demand competition and increased uncertainty in the international market, price fluctuations in the PET market will still be relatively frequent. Therefore, for relevant enterprises and investors, it is particularly important to closely monitor market dynamics and flexibly adjust business strategies.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid has risen this week. As of July 19th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3350 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3250 yuan/ton on July 12th, with an overall increase of 3.08%.

At the beginning of the week, the price of acetic acid rose, mainly due to the malfunction of the acetic acid plant in the early stage, the reduction of enterprise inventory, and the continuation of the positive sentiment in the market, leading to another upward trend in the market. Afterwards, as the faulty device resumed normal operation, the market supply increased, and downstream consumers consumed more inventory, the enthusiasm for entering the market weakened. However, the manufacturer’s inventory was not under pressure at the moment, and overall production and sales were still acceptable. The stable quotation in the later part of the week was the main factor. In terms of traders, due to excessive stockpiling and weakened downstream demand, the price of acetic acid has been lowered, and the overall acetic acid market remained strong at a high level during the week.

As of July 19th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ July 12th/ July 19th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3375 yuan/ton/ 50

Shandong region/ 3250 yuan/ton/ 3350 yuan/ton/ 100

Jiangsu region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 25

Zhejiang region/ 3250 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 25

The upstream raw material methanol market is weak and declining. As of July 19th, the average price in the domestic market was 2500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% compared to the price of 2560 yuan/ton on July 12th. The methanol supply side equipment has undergone extensive maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production capacity and interest rates. However, the downstream sector continues to be weak, and traders have sufficient supply of goods, with average receiving sentiment. Market trading is poor, and methanol spot prices have fallen from high levels.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is experiencing a strong upward trend. On July 19th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5567.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% compared to the price of 5450.00 yuan/ton on July 12th. The upstream acetic acid market remains strong at a high level, and the cost support of acetic anhydride is favorable. The downstream of acetic anhydride follows suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The upstream market has driven the upward trend of acetic anhydride prices.

Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the main acetic acid factories in the market are currently operating normally, with an increase in market supply and a weakening of downstream demand. There is limited market entry for purchases, and there is a supply-demand game in the market. In addition, some holders intend to lower prices to stimulate shipments. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be weakly consolidated, and downstream follow-up will be closely monitored in the future.

Recently (7.8-7.17), the market price of Shunding rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 17, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from 15280 yuan/ton on July 8. The price of raw material butadiene has fallen slightly from a high level; Shunding rubber production continues to remain low; Downstream tire production remains stable, but overall inquiries are cautious and slightly resistant to high priced sources. Shunding rubber futures are consolidating at a high level, and market trading is flat.

Recently (7.8-7.17), the price of butadiene has fallen from a high level, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, but overall support is still strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the price of butadiene was 13125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37% from 13725 yuan/ton on July 8th.

Recently (7.8-7.17), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has remained at a low level. As of July 17th, the construction of butadiene rubber in China is around 60%.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is currently stable, and demand is supported by the urgent needs of the butadiene rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, and butadiene rubber prices are consolidating at a high level. As of July 17th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.20%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high price of raw material butadiene will fall, and there is still support for a slight decrease in the cost center of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level and the market supply is tight; In recent times, downstream tire companies have started production steadily, but there is still a high sentiment towards Shunding rubber. Overall, the Shunding rubber market has remained strong in the near future with the support of costs and low production. It is expected that the market for butadiene rubber will mainly experience a narrow consolidation in the later stage.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since mid July, the supply of hydrogen peroxide has become tight, terminal demand has improved, and the market has heated up. On July 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 900 yuan/ton, and on July 16th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 956 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.3%.

The supply is tightening, and hydrogen peroxide is experiencing an increase

Since mid July, the weather has been hot, causing some hydrogen peroxide companies to shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in market supply. Terminal printing and paper manufacturers have increased their purchases of hydrogen peroxide, and the hydrogen peroxide market has risen one after another, with an overall quotation of 900-980 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is around 980 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 80 yuan/ton; the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 930 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton; and the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is around 960 yuan/ton, with prices remaining unchanged.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that at the end of July, the demand for terminal hydrogen peroxide was poor, and the momentum for the continued rise of the hydrogen peroxide market in the future was insufficient, with a weak downward trend being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 15, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8100 yuan/ton. Compared with July 8 (reference price of n-butanol was 8500 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.71%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that recently (7.8-7.15), the focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China has shown a downward trend. As of July 15th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 8100-8300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

In terms of demand: Recently, the downstream demand for n-butanol has been average. After the phase of demand ends, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is relatively light, and the weak downstream market for n-butyl acetate has also weakened the support for n-butanol.

Supply side: Currently, the overall supply of n-butanol is loose, with sufficient inventory and insufficient market support from the supply side.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ July 15th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 8000-8200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8000-8200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8700-8800 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8400-8600 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading volume of n-butanol in the market is light, and the atmosphere of actual inquiries is relatively quiet. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, will mainly adjust and operate in multiple intervals, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news