1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, there was a high volatility followed by a decline. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 77831.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 73223.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 5.92% and a year-on-year increase of 6.11%.

According to the current chart of Shengyi Society, copper futures prices in July were mostly higher than spot prices, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The overall copper price is bearish in the future.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in July. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 239400 tons, up 32.96% from the beginning of the month, hitting a new low in recent years.

Macroscopically, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July. The European and American regions have released the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry, which shows that the index is lower than expected and previous values, triggering market concerns about the possibility of overseas economies falling into recession. The pessimistic sentiment in the global financial market continues to ferment, and China’s important conference has not released the stimulus policies expected by the market, which has dampened investor confidence. But the actual GDP of the United States in the second quarter was 2.8%, higher than expected and previous values, easing pessimistic sentiment towards demand.

On the supply side, domestic copper production steadily increased in June, reaching 1.005 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The estimated production for July is 1.00166 million tons. Domestic electrolytic copper smelting enterprises have not been affected by the shortage of copper mines, and their production has increased instead of decreased. The maintenance period of domestic smelters has come to an end. After the early maintenance enterprises resumed production, they began to ramp up production, while other smelters were producing normally, resulting in a month on month increase in production.

Downstream: The flat demand for cables has limited consumer demand, and the sustained high copper prices have put significant pressure on terminal consumption. Even if the copper price drops in July and stimulates a rebound in cable consumption, it will be difficult to effectively generate consumer demand in August. The domestic air conditioning industry has shown positive production and sales performance in the first half of this year. July has clearly entered the off-season for air conditioning industry production, and August remains the off-season for air conditioning industry production and sales. The characteristics of the off-season will continue. The overall production and sales performance of the domestic automotive industry is better than previous years, and the production of new energy vehicles has continued to rebound since March, driving the overall performance of the automotive industry.

Imports: The import volume of unprocessed copper and copper materials in China in June was 436000 tons, and the import volume of unprocessed copper and copper materials from January to June was 2.763 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.

According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have fallen more than risen in July.

The largest copper mine strike

The mining giant BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile is the world’s largest copper mine, and its union is calling on its nearly 2400 members to reject the company’s final contract offer and prepare for a strike.

Based on the above situation, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is expected to strike again, and the volatility of the US dollar may increase in August. Fundamentally, refineries will once again face pressure on raw material supply. In terms of demand, the off-season characteristics of consumption are obvious. Except for the stable demand in the automotive industry, other terminal copper ports are difficult to have substantial demand pull. The insufficient increment and frequent disturbances on the supply side, as well as the growth in demand for new energy and overseas infrastructure, have limited the potential for a deep decline in copper prices. Short term copper mine disturbance, copper prices may rebound at a low level, but overall demand is limited, and it is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate within the range in August.

This week (7.20-7.26), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 26th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6243.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the price of 6250.00 yuan/ton on July 20th. The main reason for the volatile operation of the ethyl acetate market is the positive news on the supply side, the negative market situation on the cost side, and the game of mentality in the market.

Market analysis: The price range of ethyl acetate fluctuated this week. In the early stage, the main factories in Shandong stopped production, which provided favorable support from the supply side. In addition, the overall operating rate of the market was not high, and enterprise quotations rose sharply, resulting in a slight increase in the ethyl acetate market; Afterwards, with the recovery of Yankuang’s ethyl acetate plant, the market capacity utilization rate improved. Coupled with the downward adjustment of the upstream acetic acid market, the atmosphere in the market was bearish, and the price of ethyl acetate fell. The price trend of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell during the week.

Looking at the future, the upstream raw material prices of ethyl acetate have fallen, the cost side is bearish, and the market mentality of ethyl acetate is not good; The downstream side mainly consumes inventory, and follows up on demand when entering the market, with limited support from the demand side; On the supply side, low production may provide some support for prices, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will experience weak consolidation in the later stage. Please pay attention to the price execution of raw materials such as acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 26th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2313 yuan/ton, which is 1.95% lower than the reference average price of 2359 yuan/ton on July 22nd.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have weakened and fallen. As of July 26th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2090-2130 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2120 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2140 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market currently has a relatively sufficient supply, with oversupply being the main factor. In terms of demand, the current agricultural demand is weakening, and downstream compound fertilizers are purchased on demand, with small quantities received and many low-priced transactions.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent downward trend in the urea market has led to a lack of trading atmosphere in the market. At present, there is no positive news in the market, waiting for the release of terminal demand. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 24th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 8133.33 yuan/ton, with stable price operation as the main factor, weak downstream demand, and high inventory operation, mainly driven by rigid demand procurement.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene market continues to operate and consolidate at a low level, while the spot prices in the East China pure benzene market continue to consolidate at a low level. Low end prices are the main focus of transactions, and there are signs of price rebound. The price of Dongying Wanda Tianhong pure benzene has been raised by 40 yuan to 8570 yuan/ton, and the plant’s approximately 20000 ton pure benzene unit will be shut down for maintenance in mid June.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the upstream cost support is insufficient, inventory is high, and downstream demand is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term stable operation of the cyclohexane market will be the main trend, with a mainstream price range of 8200 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has stopped falling and rebounded, with some spot prices of certain grades rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 12000 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of 1.48% compared to the price level on July 1.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the beginning of this month, the domestic ABS industry’s load was roughly 70% of the operating level at the end of last month. Recently, companies such as North Huajin and LG Yongxing have undergone varying degrees of maintenance and load reduction, resulting in an overall operating rate of around 63%. Manufacturers tend to have confidence in their operations, and product pricing has generally increased slightly. Under the cover of the aggregation plant, merchants have slightly increased their shipments. The overall inventory of the industry has been digested, and the benefits of supply contraction have been realized. Overall, the supply side has increased its support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Recently, the trend of the upstream three materials of ABS has been weak, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. Among them, the capacity expansion of acrylonitrile in the second half of the year is significant, and the increase in supply has enveloped the market. The expected trend of acrylonitrile prices is bearish and the profitability of enterprises is not optimistic. After the domestic market fell, it remained stagnant, and the upstream raw material propylene market fluctuated and consolidated, with average cost support. Downstream demand continues to be weak, and many industry players maintain a cautious attitude towards the future market, mainly based on their previous offers.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been stable but weak, and the overall market momentum is not high. Downstream demand maintains a weak demand for essential goods, leading to a decrease in market entry enthusiasm. The market lacks actual transaction support, and offers are dragged down. It is expected that the butadiene market will maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term, and there may still be a slight downward trend.

Recently, the styrene market has continued to be weak, with prices experiencing a slight decline. International oil prices have fluctuated and the pure benzene market has dropped significantly, with poor cost support. In the early stage, the price of styrene rose to a relatively high level, and buyers’ resistance to high-end sources increased, resulting in a decrease in market trading volume. It is expected that the future market situation of styrene may be weak and difficult to change.

In terms of demand: As we enter late July, there has been no improvement in the main terminal demand for ABS. Some home appliance manufacturers are maintaining holiday shutdowns, and the overall load position of downstream factories is low, with weak stocking operations and a focus on basic needs. Some traders sell at high prices, but the overall market momentum tends to be light, and the speed of source circulation is average. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

Recently, the price of ABS in China has been rising and then trending sideways. The overall stalemate of the upstream three materials is weak, and the cost support for ABS is average. The production of ABS polymerization plants has been reduced in the early stage, and the favorable effect of supply contraction has been realized. However, in terms of overall production capacity loss, changes in supply pressure may be limited, and there is still ample supply of goods on site. The demand side has weak demand, and the market situation is obvious during the off-season, resulting in weak trading. Overall, it is expected that the ABS market will remain stable in the short term.