According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has experienced a decline followed by an increase since February, with an overall upward trend. As of February 27th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17132 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% from 16840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17400 yuan/ton, and the low point was 16510 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, downstream production remained low, and demand faced insufficient support from natural rubber, resulting in a slight decrease in natural rubber prices; On the one hand, downstream production has increased in the later stage, and on the other hand, the supply of raw materials in the market is tight and prices remain high, driving the overall upward trend of natural rubber.

Since February, the main rubber production areas overseas have gradually stopped cutting, with Vietnam’s production areas approaching a complete shutdown. The southern and northeastern regions of Thailand account for about 50-60% of the shutdown area. In addition, the domestic natural rubber production areas are in a shutdown period. In February, the high and firm prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad have provided some support for natural rubber prices. As of February 26th, the price of Thai glue was 70.50 baht/kg, an increase of 4.44% from 67.50 baht/kg at the beginning of February.

The natural rubber inventory increased slightly in February, which had a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of February 23, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 575600 tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared to the previous period.

Since mid to late February, downstream tire production has gradually increased, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.

Market forecast: Currently, there is an increase in the cessation of cutting in domestic and foreign raw material production areas, and the price of natural rubber raw materials remains high, which provides some support for natural rubber; With the gradual increase in downstream production after the holiday, there is a certain degree of rigid demand support for natural rubber, but the high inventory of Tianjiao Port still has a certain negative impact on the Tianjiao market; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations at high levels in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market had a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation at the end of February, with some brand products experiencing mixed price fluctuations. As of February 26th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.56% compared to the price level at the beginning of February.

price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of remote upstream crude oil, in mid month, the United States imposed tariffs and Trump requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices, while US crude oil inventories remained high. At the end of the month, with the easing of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, market concerns about crude oil demand have expanded. The price of crude oil is suppressed by various factors, and the rate of change remains negative. The propylene sector is in a downward trend due to previous high prices and weakened upstream, while the propane sector lacks active guidance. Overall, the PP raw material market was weak at the end of February, providing moderate support for PP costs.

Supply side:

At the end of February, the load of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with a slight decrease, and the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has slightly decreased by 2% to 77% compared to mid month, and the domestic weekly average production has dropped to around 730000 tons. Recently, there has been no production capacity landing, and the previously accumulated discharge pressure from new devices is gradually being digested. The maintenance and resumption of work of PP equipment in the future are mutually apparent, and from the results, it is expected that there will be a narrow relaxation trend in shipment volume. The supply side’s support for PP spot prices is expected to remain stable with small fluctuations.

In terms of demand:

At the end of February, the demand for PP remained generally stable, continuing the previous weak level. Although there was no significant increase in production in the field, enterprises gradually resumed work after the holiday, and the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice showed a trend of recovery. The inventory of plastic woven enterprises was partially digested. Expected to expand the stocking potential of the buyer camp. Overall, the demand side is showing a positive trend.

Future forecast

At the end of February, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated narrowly and consolidated. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is poor, industry supply is expected to level off, there is a trend of recovery in consumption, and market momentum has the potential to rise. But in the short term, the bullish momentum is not strong, and the market lacks momentum. It is expected that the PP price market will continue to consolidate.

At the end of February, the domestic ABS market consolidation was weak, and the spot prices of some grades were narrowly lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11762.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the end of February, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained almost unchanged, and the load rate continued to be around 72% from mid month. The average weekly output remains close to 130000 tons, while the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has accumulated close to 190000 tons. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. There has been no improvement in orders for petrochemical plants, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery, resulting in a higher incidence of discounted orders. Overall, the recent supply side has provided poor support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: At the end of February, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was weak, and the overall support for ABS cost side was average. The domestic supply of acrylonitrile is gradually increasing, while domestic demand and exports remain slow overall. The prominent contradiction between supply and demand has led to a continuous decline in market prices. However, there is uncertainty in the supply side in March, and the uncertain expectations have to some extent suppressed the recent downward trend of acrylonitrile.

Recently, the butadiene market has experienced a relatively wide decline. At the end of the month, industry production capacity returned and supply expectations increased. At the same time, the synthetic rubber futures market weakened, and downstream demand was weak. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the market is under pressure to decline. The prices of the holders have been lowered one after another. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance in the future market, and industry players generally have a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the market trend may continue to be weak.

At the end of February, the styrene market was mainly weak and consolidated. Recently, the load of styrene industry facilities has increased, and the market supply has increased due to the relaxation of supply and demand. Upstream pure benzene prices have fallen due to poor shipments from Eastern refining companies. The bullish trend in the early stage of styrene is gradually being digested, and the stagnant market is entering consolidation.

On the demand side: The terminal side continues the previous flat pattern, and there is no improvement in downstream buying at the end of the month. The current resumption process of terminal factories is lagging behind, and the overall load position is slowly recovering. At the same time, terminal enterprises still have inventory to digest, and the atmosphere of on-site procurement is sluggish, resulting in slow flow of goods. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.

Future forecast

At the end of February, the domestic ABS market experienced a narrow decline. The overall consolidation of the upstream three materials is weak, and the comprehensive support for ABS cost side is average. The load of ABS polymerization plant has remained basically unchanged, and the accumulated inventory has risen at a high level. The demand side expansion is still insufficient, and some downstream enterprises are slow to return to production. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has strong supply and weak demand, and in the short term, the market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation.

Recently (2.11-2.23), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and slightly declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.57% from 14830 yuan/ton on the 11th. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The production of butadiene rubber remains low, and the pressure on the supply side is relatively small; After the holiday, downstream construction gradually increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have been gradually lowered, and the quotes from merchants have been weak and declining. As of February 23, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14200-14550 yuan/ton.

Recently (2.11-2.23), the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly. Recently, due to the expected increase in butadiene supply, downstream inventory, and low production of synthetic rubber, the downward trend in butadiene prices has intensified. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 23, the price of butadiene was 11587 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.31% from 12637 yuan/ton on the 11th.

Recently (2.11-2.23), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has remained at a low level, with overall construction around 6.10%.

Demand side: Downstream tire production will increase after the holiday, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate weakly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; Post holiday downstream construction will increase; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will consolidate in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8258 yuan/ton on February 14th and 8261 yuan/ton on February 20th, with a price increase of 0.04% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10083 yuan/ton on February 14th and 10183 yuan/ton on February 20th, with a price increase of 0.99% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8375 yuan/ton on February 14th and 8412 yuan/ton on February 20th, with a price increase of 0.45% during this period.

Recently, polyethylene has shown a strong trend of oscillation, but the upward potential is limited. On the cost side, the market is concerned that local supply may continue to tighten in the short term, and coupled with the difficulty of significantly increasing US crude oil production, international oil prices have continued to rise, providing some support for the polyethylene market on the cost side. The pressure on the supply side is still present, with stable deployment of new production capacity in the early stages, and plastic companies resuming work and production after the holiday, leading to increased market expectations; During this period (February 14-20), the domestic polyethylene plant suffered a maintenance loss of approximately 67200 tons, an increase of 12300 tons compared to the same period last week. In late February to March, spring plastic film enters the traditional peak season, with orders constantly accumulating, but the demand for greenhouse film enters the off-season. The upcoming National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference are expected to boost demand in the commodity market, and the polyethylene market is poised for a small spring.

The pressure on the supply side is still there, and the demand for plastic film may be supported. The macro level is relatively warm, and it is expected that the upward space for polyethylene will be limited.