This week, the hydrofluoric acid market maintained stable operation. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 12016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to the beginning of this month (11933.33 yuan/ton).
Raw material side: The market price of raw fluorite remains stable, while the sulfuric acid market shows a narrow range of fluctuations. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite is tight, and the market is running at a high level, which strongly supports the cost of hydrofluoric acid. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.14% compared to the beginning of this month (3660.00 yuan/ton).
The raw material sulfuric acid market fluctuated narrowly. Due to the significant increase in upstream sulfur prices of sulfuric acid and the reduction in production and maintenance of some acid enterprises, the supply of sulfuric acid in the market has been reduced. The downstream market demand for sulfuric acid has also rebounded. Under the expectation of favorable supply and demand, the price of sulfuric acid is trending towards a stronger trend. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.62% compared to the beginning of this month (470.00 yuan/ton). Overall, there is still support for the raw material market, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly.
On the demand side: Downstream is approaching the peak season for refrigerants, and some refrigerants are experiencing price increases. Coupled with policy encouragement in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial growth. Fluorine chemical companies within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. The prices in the foreign trade market have increased, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand, which supports the hydrofluoric acid market.
Market forecast: In the near future, the high prices of raw materials will support the strong trend of the hydrofluoric acid market, and it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to operate steadily and strongly. More attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

Recently (3.18-3.26), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13910 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from 13860 yuan/ton on March 18. The price of raw material butadiene remains stable, while the cost of butadiene rubber maintains weak support; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and the pressure on the supply side still exists; The downstream production is basically stable, mainly providing support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply price of Shunding rubber suppliers has slightly decreased, and merchant offers have been slightly adjusted. As of March 26th, the mainstream prices of Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 13800-14000 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.18-3.26), the price of butadiene has remained stable, with weak support from the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the price of butadiene remained stable at 11037 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.18-3.26), there has been a slight fluctuation in the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants, with overall construction around 6.90%. Zhejiang Chuanhua’s 150000 tons/year Gaoshun Shunding rubber plant is scheduled to undergo a 25 day shutdown and maintenance from March 26th. The expected supply of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of March 21st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate narrowly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; The temporary stability of downstream construction provides some support for Shunding Rubber. With some equipment maintenance plans in the later stage, the supply pressure of Shunding Rubber is expected to slightly decrease. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding Rubber market will consolidate in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has been consolidating in a narrow range recently. As of March 25th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from March 6th.

Crude oil prices fluctuated upwards. On March 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.11 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.37 per barrel. The PX market has recently begun to pay attention to the benefits brought by routine maintenance in the second quarter.

The rise in crude oil and PX prices has provided certain price support for PTA, and the spot market is showing a rebound trend. On March 25th, the average market price in East China was 4889 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% compared to March 12th. Currently, PTA plant maintenance and restart are carried out in parallel, maintaining a tight supply and demand pattern and maintaining a destocking state.

The downstream yarn factories have stable shipments, with varying shipment situations for different categories, and market prices are adjusted based on the shipment situation. At the same time, the raw material inventory of the terminal factory is basically maintained, and the delivery is slow, so there are few new orders added, and the actual orders can be negotiated. The overall market mentality is cautious, with many small orders requiring replenishment.

Business analysts believe that downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the rise in raw material prices is supporting the cost of polyester staple fibers. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 21st, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1923 yuan/ton, which is 2.45% higher than the reference average price of 1877 yuan/ton on March 17th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market has shown a strong upward trend. As of March 21st, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1850-1900 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1880 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1860 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1840 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1910 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

On the supply side, the urea market has seen positive transactions this week, with companies actively shipping and reduced inventory levels. Some enterprises have parked their equipment, resulting in a decrease in market supply. In terms of demand, the downstream operating rate has increased this week, and the new order volume has also increased. Agricultural demand remains stable, while industrial demand has significantly increased.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea prices have been running strong recently. At present, the market supply is tight and the demand side is well supported. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the cost support of polyester filament is insufficient this week, inventory pressure is rising, and the price center has been sporadically lowered. On March 21st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6900-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8200-8400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, OPEC+production increases, US tariff policies suppress demand, coupled with Iraq’s resumption of crude oil exports, international oil prices continue to be under pressure, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. The prices of upstream polyester raw materials (PX, PTA, MEG) have all fallen across the board.

In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises remains stable, but insufficient new orders have led to weak procurement demand, and the average market production and sales rate is lower than expected. The production and sales rate of mainstream manufacturers is between 50-80%. The textile and clothing industry has entered the traditional peak season of “Golden Three and Silver Four”, but the actual release of orders is limited. Although some companies have tried to stimulate transactions through preferential promotions (such as a limited time price reduction of 500 yuan/ton), there has been no significant improvement in terminal textile consumption, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with inventory pressure still existing.

In terms of inventory, trading is sluggish, downstream users are cautious, and there is a need for replenishment. Actual transactions are rare, and the average production and sales of polyester are at 35.4%. The overall inventory is concentrated between 11-21 days; In terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 11-22 days, FDY inventory is around 9-21 days, and DTY inventory is around 10-22 days.

Overall, the price of polyester filament has fluctuated weakly this week, and in the short term, the price of polyester filament may continue to fluctuate narrowly. Business analysts believe that although the decline in upstream raw material costs is beneficial for profit recovery, high inventory pressure and slow recovery of terminal demand will still suppress the room for price increases.