Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has seen a slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 18th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4814 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.85% from December 9th.

In the second half of November, the PTA pre maintenance equipment will resume operation, but with the current processing fees, there will be less maintenance of the PTA equipment. Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th; Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons will undergo maintenance on December 12th. Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton PTA new plant began trial operation on December 18th. The current industry production is around 86%, and the overall supply in December is relatively loose.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine has prompted the United States to announce a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at its December meeting and may postpone it until the second quarter of next year, which is positive news for international oil prices. However, the weak demand in the international crude oil market and investors’ concerns about the prospect of oversupply in the crude oil market still exist, which is bearish for the oil market. As of December 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.65 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.19 per barrel.

The centralized replenishment of downstream factories, previously due to the sluggish performance of the entire polyester sector prices, is now showing signs of a rebound in various products driven by raw materials. The inventory level of raw materials for terminal textile enterprises is not high, and there is still some time before the Spring Festival. This round of replenishment is expected to be mostly for pre year orders, and there is still room for replenishment in the later period. In addition, domestic macro policies have released a series of positive signals, including promoting domestic demand, and it has been heard that export orders have performed well.

Business Society analysis believes that under the current macro positive policies and short-term favorable crude oil conditions, PTA may be boosted in the short term, but the sustainability of demand side replenishment needs attention.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has recently seen an increase, with some spot prices of certain brands rising narrowly. As of December 17th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16300 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 2.62% compared to early December.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Previously, companies such as Jiaxing Emperor gradually returned, and the industry average operating rate rose to over 80%. Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has narrowly declined to around 78%. The average weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons. The on-site supply of goods is still abundant, and the mismatch between supply and demand remains unchanged. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, and the auction market has slightly improved. The market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above chart, after the rapid downward trend of bisphenol A, the spot price at the end of last month has reached a low point. At the same time, there is a delay in the production of new devices on the news side, which has boosted the supply side significantly, coupled with the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage. Although the price of raw material phenol has fallen from a high level due to the cooling of gas purchases, the arrival of cargo at the port has been delayed, and the inventory level at the port is only about 6000 tons. Spot goods are still in a tight supply situation, and there is a stable supply and price sentiment. At the same time, the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks are stable, and influenced by various favorable factors, the price of bisphenol A continues to rise, and the mentality of industry players is strengthening. Overall, bisphenol A remains stable and strong, providing further support for PC costs.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not improved for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak in the previous period. The logic of weak rigid demand purchasing in the market continues, and the wait-and-see sentiment of industry players is biased. As the end of the year approaches, downstream factories are taking over goods to maintain production, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. Purchasing and price chasing operations are cautious, and only some companies have seen an increase in operating rates. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market has been on the rise recently. The upstream bisphenol A market continues to rise, further strengthening the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic polymerization plants has dropped by 2%, while the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Business Society believes that the rise in raw materials has brought strong cost side benefits, but at the same time, it has also brought cost pressure. The profound mismatch between supply and demand is not something that can be alleviated in the short term, and there may be some companies returning for maintenance in the future. Therefore, the PC market may be hindered from rising in the future, and it is recommended to closely monitor the trend on the cost side.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8783 yuan/ton on December 6th, and the average price was 8818 yuan/ton on December 16th, with a price increase of 0.40% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10816 yuan/ton on December 6th, and the average price was 10650 yuan/ton on December 16th, with a price drop of 1.54% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8562 yuan/ton on December 6th, and the average price was 8562 yuan/ton on December 16th, with the quotation remaining unchanged during this period.

Recently, the trend of polyethylene has been fluctuating, with linear products showing a strong trend and high-pressure products experiencing a relatively large decline. Due to an increase in spot resources on the supply side, the price of high-voltage products has declined. Linear products are mainly affected by tight supply, resulting in a slight increase in prices. According to statistics, the maintenance loss of domestic polyethylene plants during the period of (12.6-12.12) was about 93200 tons, a decrease of 5200 tons compared to last week. The production of the new device has been delayed. The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene has declined compared to the previous period, with the packaging film industry in a low season of demand, greenhouse film demand coming to an end, and plastic film slowly increasing, resulting in limited demand support. International oil prices have fluctuated and risen, with some support on the cost side. Boosted by favorable domestic policies.

On December 16th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8350 yuan and closed at 8430 yuan, up 93 yuan, with a high of 8439 yuan and a low of 8350 yuan, up 1.12%.

New production capacity is gradually being deployed; The expected reduction in maintenance losses and increase in supply side expectations; The demand for greenhouse film is coming to an end, and the demand may weaken. The main focus is on purchasing for essential needs; The support of crude oil on the cost side is expected to weaken, and it is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range this week (12.09-13), with prices first falling and then rising. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.20% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Due to limited positive news on fundamentals this week, there has been little change in the crude oil and futures markets. The price range of PVC has fluctuated, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. As of the weekend, the price has slightly stopped falling, and some markets have slightly rebounded, but it has not risen above the level at the beginning of the week. On the one hand, due to the low operation of upstream crude oil prices, ethylene has shown weak performance. In addition, the futures market has fallen, and the spot PVC market has been linked to a downward trend. Coupled with loose supply and demand, most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, and it is difficult for dealers to improve their offers. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4900-5080 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the decline and increase of calcium carbide since December have been zero. The upstream lacks positive guidance for PVC, and overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week is weak, with limited support. As downstream PVC falls back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the weak balance between PVC supply and demand is the main factor, and the operating rate of manufacturers remains high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory are high. On the cost side, the ability to drive upstream carbide prices is limited, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% from the reference average price of 1881 yuan/ton on December 6th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have slightly adjusted and fallen. As of December 12th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1760-1790 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1785 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1885 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, both supply and demand in the urea market have been weak. On the supply side, there has been a decrease in urea market supply this week, but there is still a significant amount of inventory in the market. In terms of demand, downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, market transactions are sluggish, and the trading atmosphere is not good.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has recently undergone a narrow adjustment. At present, there is no positive support in the market, and the market adopts a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the stable consolidation and operation of domestic urea market prices will be the main focus.