Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On September 25th, the average market price was 8279.67 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today, domestic pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is currently average. The international crude oil market is fluctuating, with average support for pure benzene. The main focus is on destocking of port inventory, but there is a significant accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. Shandong’s local refineries continue to offer discounts to promote spot sales. Prediction: It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak and difficult to change, with spot prices of various grades continuing to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 24th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.81% compared to the price level on September 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Recently, the load level of the domestic ABS industry has been average. In the early stage, some maintenance capacity resumed work, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded to around 65%. Recently, it has remained stable in a sideways trend. The overall digestion of on-site goods is slow, while the supply is abundant and the overall inventory is high. Partial stocking demand before National Day has been released, and ABS finished product inventory has decreased by about 10000 tons to about 180000 tons compared to the previous period. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: As the end of the month approaches, the trend of ABS upstream materials is generally stagnant, and the support effect on ABS cost side is average. The spot trading of acrylonitrile market has slightly improved, and the market price has stopped falling and stabilized. In the latter half of the year, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories continues to decline, and there are maintenance plans for both the north and south units next month. Supply is expected to continue to decrease, giving the market some confidence. But continuing to rise is still not enough, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive news on the ground.

Recently, the butadiene market has been consolidating at a high level. During the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, there was a release of downstream stocking demand before the holiday. Affected by the rise in the synthetic rubber market after the holiday, the mentality of the spot market has improved, and holders have a strong willingness to support prices, leading to an upward trend in mainstream domestic prices. As the National Day holiday approaches, there is a demand for replenishing inventory downstream, and the mentality of the spot market is generally strong. Overall, there are still positive developments in the butadiene market, and it is expected that the short-term trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong.

Recently, the styrene market has been fluctuating. Although crude oil has rebounded slightly in recent days, significant fluctuations in the previous market have dragged down the weakness of pure benzene prices, while the cost support of styrene remains at a general level. The supply is relatively abundant, and there is an expectation for short-term memory growth. Domestic demand is relatively stable, and the situation of new orders is average. There is a struggle between long and short positions in the market, and there is limited change in the supply and demand of styrene spot before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. It is expected that the market will continue to organize and operate in the future.

In terms of demand: “Golden September” has entered the end of the month, and the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level, but instead continues the off-season trend, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence, have a low willingness to build warehouses, and offer according to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

In late September, domestic ABS prices showed a weak trend. Upstream material sorting is the main focus, with average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of the ABS polymerization plant is stable with small fluctuations, and the finished product inventory is slightly digested. The weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues, and market trading remains weak. The mismatch between supply and demand in the market is difficult to change, and due to the influence of multiple bearish factors, the traditional demand peak season expectation in September has not been fulfilled. The market has a bearish attitude towards the future, and it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 9210 yuan/ton on September 23rd.

Analysis: According to data from Business Society, the focus of the styrene market is downward today. At present, negotiations in the styrene market are relatively light, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and downstream factories are purchasing as needed. At present, the crude oil market is mainly volatile, and the short-term impact on promoting the rise of styrene is limited. Recently, there has been an increasing trend in styrene port inventory, and with the approaching of the National Day holiday, the demand for spot goods has relatively decreased. It is expected that the styrene spot market will experience slight fluctuations in the short term.

Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in mid to early September

Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in mid to early September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 19980 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.71% from the market average price of 19643.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

On September 20, 2024, the spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) for China Aluminum Corporation Limited is as follows: the external quotation for the East China market is 19960 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the South China market is 19820 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the Southwest market is 19850 yuan/ton, and the external quotation for the Central Plains market is 19850 yuan/ton.

Changes in import and export tariffs

On September 13th, the Office of the United States Trade Representative stated that some of the 301 tariff policies will take effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

The list of goods subject to this tax increase has further expanded the scope of aluminum products subject to the 301 tariff imposed on China. At this point, aluminum products include aluminum scrap, aluminum powder, aluminum cables, undifferentiated aluminum structures, household aluminum appliances, aluminum ore and concentrates, unprocessed aluminum and aluminum alloys; Aluminum rods, profiles, and special-shaped materials; Aluminum wire; Aluminum strip; Aluminum foil; Aluminum tube; Aluminum pipes, almost all aluminum and its derivatives are included. It is reported that in addition to the 301 tariff, the United States has imposed high anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, strips, foils and other products. The US Department of Commerce has ruled that the dumping rate of Chinese manufacturers/exporters is nearly 5%, and the tax rate for unqualified enterprises is 376%.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2024, the domestic export of aluminum and its products was 861700 tons, of which exports to North America accounted for about 11% and exports to the United States accounted for about 8%.

The export consumption of aluminum terminals is mainly concentrated in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic frames, household aluminum doors and windows, etc. It is expected that the possibility of avoiding taxation solely through detours or assembly is low, and the export volume of aluminum and aluminum products from China to the United States may gradually decrease in the future.

Domestic inventory changes

In September, the overall inventory of the electrolytic aluminum plant area decreased, and the social inventory decreased significantly, resulting in a downward shift in overall inventory.

As of September 19th, incomplete statistics show that the main electrolytic aluminum plant inventory in China is 49000 tons, compared to 53000 tons on August 29th. Out of inventory is 4000 tons, but compared to 47000 tons on September 12th, the cumulative inventory is 2000 tons;

As of September 18th, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 716000 tons, compared to the main factory inventory of 803000 tons on August 29th, with 87000 tons sold out.

Reasons for the rebound of aluminum prices in September

On the macro news front, the resonance between China and the United States’ PMI is downward, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50BP in September and some central banks following suit.

2. The stock of raw material alumina is still tight, with low inventory. Overseas alumina transaction prices are accelerating their rise, while domestic prices are firm. The cost side is driving aluminum prices to improve.

Fundamental Overview

Supply side: The resumption of production in Yunnan region has been completed in the early stage, and the four major production areas of Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan have maintained full production. The output of electrolytic aluminum remains loose and stable in the short term. The mid-term variable focuses on the reduction of production during the dry season in Yunnan and other areas.

On the demand side: The continuous weakness of real estate completion data, coupled with a significant decline in the production of air conditioners and household refrigerators that are matched with it. The pessimistic expectation of demand is partly due to the seasonal off-season of household appliances, and partly due to the significant pressure on real estate completion and the strong negative feedback effect of aluminum consumption; More importantly, in terms of exports, the additional tariffs on new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may gradually be implemented, and photovoltaic exports are also facing certain pressure.

Import and Export: The United States has decided to impose tariffs on Chinese products, with a 100% increase in tariffs on electric vehicles and a 25% increase in tariffs on Chinese aluminum. In the first half of the year, the aluminum market has performed well in terms of export consumption, with impressive growth rates. With the implementation of the US tariffs, export consumption is likely to weaken, suppressing export consumption.

Future expectations

Recently, on the supply side, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises are nearing the end of their resumption of production, with high daily output and narrowed upward space; Overseas New Zealand direction, due to power shortages, supply has slightly decreased. On the demand side, downstream sectors have seen a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing a slight destocking. It is expected that supply and demand will stabilize in the short term, with the main focus on macro trading sentiment.

In the medium term, focusing on the supply tightening caused by the reduction in production during the dry season, the favorable supply side may be an important factor supporting the future strength of aluminum prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6750 yuan/ton. Compared with September 13 (reference price of n-butanol was 6666 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early September, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, experienced a downward trend. After the return of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the n-butanol market in Shandong has finally warmed up. As of September 18, the n-butanol market in Shandong has referred to 6700-6800 yuan tons, and the post festival price has increased by 100-150 yuan tons.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

On the supply side: After the holiday, some domestic n-butanol plants were unable to resume operation in a timely manner, and the overall operating rate of n-butanol has decreased compared to the previous period. The pressure on the n-butanol supply side has been reduced, and the n-butanol market has been boosted by supply support.

On the demand side: Currently, the downstream demand for n-butanol is relatively stable, with demand mainly focused on rigid procurement. The inquiry atmosphere on the demand side has become active, and the overall support for n-butanol on the demand side has also slightly improved.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ September 19th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 6700-6800 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 6700-6800 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 6900-7000 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the confidence of n-butanol operators has improved, and the overall market atmosphere has rebounded. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate steadily and warm, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.