According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid has declined after the holiday. On October 12th, the average price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, and on October 8th, the average price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 50 yuan/ton during the week, a decrease of 1.54%.

This week, the acetic acid market has been weak, and enterprise quotations have fallen. On the supply side, the acetic acid plant on site is operating normally, and the market supply continues to increase, leading to strong shipping sentiment among enterprises; On the downstream side, the enthusiasm for restocking after the holiday is not high, and market trading is weak. Holders of goods have lowered their prices to promote shipments, but market demand is limited, and the acetic acid market is weakly declining.

As of October 12th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On October 8th/ On October 12th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ -25

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -50

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -50

Jiangsu region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2825 yuan/ton/ -50

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2925 yuan/ton/ -50

The upstream methanol market fluctuated widely. From October 8th to 12th, the average price in the domestic market dropped from 2620 yuan/ton to 2551 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 2.64%. Returning from the holiday, the domestic methanol market rose and then fell back to a high level, before rebounding again. After the holiday, demand changes are limited, supply has increased, and inventory in mainland China and ports has accumulated. The on-site supply is strong and demand is weak, and the methanol market price is weak and operating.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On October 12th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5297.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.20% compared to the price of 5472.50 yuan/ton on October 8th. The upstream acetic acid market is consolidating weakly, the cost support for acetic anhydride is weakening, downstream demand for acetic anhydride is poor after the holiday, market trading is limited, and industry sentiment is bearish. The acetic anhydride market fell during the week.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity on the supply side is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, and the mentality of industry players is mainly bearish; Downstream and traders’ restocking sentiment is not high, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the supply on the market is strong and demand is weak. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be weak and consolidated, and downstream follow-up will be closely monitored in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market experienced a gradual decline in September. From September 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5970 yuan/ton to 5777 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.22% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 18.77%.

In the first half of the month, downstream demand remained sluggish, with poor buying activity and light trading, resulting in a narrow decline in the focus of the domestic ethanol market. In mid month, the cost of edible ethanol in China was still in a loss making state, with downstream demand mainly for replenishment. The overall trading atmosphere was still acceptable, but the willingness to replenish was limited. At the end of the month, the price of raw corn continued to decline, with a slight loosening of costs. As the National Day approached, holders actively shipped goods, but demand did not show substantial improvement, resulting in a clear situation of oversupply in the market. The domestic ethanol market continued to be weak.

In terms of cost, the increase in corn production in the new season in the production area has led to a seasonal decline in corn. New grains are being launched one after another, but downstream demand is difficult to increase, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market and a synchronous decline in corn prices. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; The main large factories are not operating at a high rate. There have been no significant changes to the equipment in other factories. The ethanol supply is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption is generally supported; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate has heard that the Jinmao Source plant is planning to restart recently, and the operating rate has rebounded. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future, with light demand and subsequent decline in corn prices, ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid in September first rose and then fell. As of September 29th, the price was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 2.99% during the month.

As of the end of the month, the market price details of acetic acid in various regions of China in September are as follows:

Region/ On September 1st/ On September 14th/ September 29th

South China region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3250 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton

The acetic acid market remained weak and consolidated in September. At the beginning of the month, the price of acetic acid continued to decline, following the trend of the end of August. On the supply side, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity was high, and factory inventory continued to accumulate. However, downstream inquiries were sluggish, and market trading was weak, resulting in a weak downward trend in the acetic acid market; Mid month, downstream restocking was average before and after the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively weak. Acetic acid prices remained stable; In the latter half of the year, there was some improvement in shipment transactions in Shandong region, with a slight increase in acetic acid prices. However, the overall market supply was high, and downstream consumption inventory was limited. Acetic acid remained stable and watchful in the later stage.

The methanol market on the raw material side is fluctuating and consolidating. As of September 29th, the average price in the domestic market was 2518.33 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.55% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2480.0 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the methanol market continued to decline, mainly due to the continuous expansion of the supply side and insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, resulting in a continued decline in the methanol market; In the second half of the year, the demand for methanol was relatively good, with low arrival of foreign ships and destocking of port inventory. With the support of a macro positive trend, the methanol market saw a narrow upward trend.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the current price of acetic acid is mostly stable, with downstream demand as the main factor. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the supply side of acetic acid is stable with a lack of positive news. On the demand side, downstream wait-and-see mentality is the main factor, and market transactions are limited. The supply and demand in the market are deadlocked, and it is expected that acetic acid prices will fluctuate weakly in the future. Specific attention should be paid to downstream replenishment situation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of acetic acid remained stable this week. As of September 27th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the week price of 3250 yuan/ton and a decrease of 2.99% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market has been running steadily, and enterprise quotations have remained stable. On the supply side, the acetic acid plant is running smoothly, the market supply is steadily increasing, and enterprises are actively shipping; On the demand side, downstream pre holiday stocking sentiment is average, with a focus on restocking as needed. There is a supply-demand stalemate in the market, and industry players are cautious. Acetic acid prices are stable and operating on a wait-and-see basis.

As of September 27th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On September 23rd/ On September 27th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market has risen narrowly. As of September 27th, the average price in the domestic market was 2478 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 4.13% compared to the early week price of 2380 yuan/ton. Supported by a macro positive outlook, the domestic methanol market has stopped falling and risen. At the same time, the arrival volume of foreign ships is low, port inventory is depleted, and port methanol prices are also relatively strong. Methanol prices are running strongly before the holiday.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating steadily. On September 27th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5472.50 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the week price of 5472.50 yuan/ton. The upstream acetic acid market is mainly stable, with limited cost support for acetic anhydride. Downstream acetic anhydride follows suit as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. The supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced, and the acetic anhydride market remained stable during the week.

Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the acetic acid plant is operating normally on the supply side, and the market supply of goods is stable. There is currently no positive news released; The demand for pre holiday stocking by downstream and trading companies is generally low, and the market trading atmosphere is weak, with a stalemate in the market atmosphere. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be stable, and with limited holiday shipments, the price of acetic acid may weaken and consolidate after the holiday. The downstream market should pay attention to the follow-up situation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market price has stopped falling and rebounded since mid September. As of September 26th, the average market price in East China was 4878 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.75% compared to September 11th.

Positive factors such as macro reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have boosted the commodity market, and the recovery of macro atmosphere has caused resonance in the general rise of the commodity market. In addition, international crude oil has fluctuated and strengthened, providing upward support for PTA costs. As of September 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.90 per barrel.

From the perspective of its own supply side, the processing profit in September has been compressed, and multiple PTA units in China have undergone maintenance and load reduction. However, PTA maintenance units have been restarted one after another, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. The operating rate of the domestic industry is around 81%. A 2.5 million ton PTA plant in South China is scheduled for maintenance in October. Considering the high operating rate of PTA capacity, the decrease in processing fees may lead to an increase in unplanned plant maintenance.

Downstream polyester production is slowly increasing, with a seasonal rebound in polyester production rate to over 86% in September. The demand for PTA continues to improve, helping to improve the current PTA supply and demand structure. Textile terminals have started pre holiday stocking activities, and the replenishment sentiment has improved. They actively inquire about prices, but remain cautious and maintain a focus on essential needs. Domestic trade orders fell short of expectations, and due to the impact of Christmas and overseas shopping festivals, foreign trade orders may increase.

Business analysts believe that driven by relatively warm costs, downstream polyester production may continue to rebound, and demand for PTA will continue to improve. In addition, the warming macro atmosphere has boosted the commodity market, and in the short term, PTA prices may experience a narrow range of strong adjustments.