Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, in mid February, the domestic PC market continued the weak consolidation trend, and most spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 18th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16266.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.31% compared to early February.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In mid February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises roughly leveled off, with an industry average operating rate of around 80%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, with ample on-site supply and unchanged supply-demand imbalance. The inventory position is on the high side, and the on-site pricing continues to be at a low level. The market supply side is providing average support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above chart, the recent fluctuations and consolidation of the bisphenol A market have been the main trend, with slightly weaker price movements. Although the prices of upstream phenol and acetone have strengthened, the demand side for bisphenol A has not recovered well after the holiday, and the high prices of raw materials have actually increased the cost pressure of bisphenol A. Merchants often give up profits and take orders, resulting in a decrease in actual orders. The confidence of the industry is not strong, and overall the support for PC cost is average.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak in early February. The return of downstream factories during holidays is slow, and the load on end enterprises is not high. The terminal stocking intensity is average, and the purchasing logic is concentrated on weak demand, with some inventory still to be digested. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

In mid February, the domestic PC market continued to consolidate its weak trend. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations, with average support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is basically flat, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The industry’s inventory is high, and the supply pressure has not improved. At present, the recovery of downstream demand is still slow, and the situation of new orders is not good. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Last week (February 10-16, 2025), the adhesive short fiber market was consolidating and operating, with prices fluctuating slightly. As of February 16th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13720 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% compared to last week. The raw material main material dissolution slurry market is running steadily, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market and sulfuric acid market are both showing an upward trend, and the price center of the cost side market is rising; From the supply side, the supply of adhesive short fiber industry slightly decreased during the week, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers were at a low level. The favorable support from the supply side still exists; Downstream yarn manufacturers are still in the stage of resuming work one after another, and various yarn companies still have a certain amount of raw material inventory. The enthusiasm for replenishment is not high, and there has been no significant improvement on the demand side.

Overall, the price center of the upstream raw material market has shifted upward, with good support on the cost side. There is currently no inventory pressure in the market, and supply side support still exists. However, the downstream market mainly executes early orders, with limited replenishment demand. The overall market speed is average, and the price of adhesive short fiber market remains stable with small fluctuations, with a slight increase in average price.

In terms of cost: This week, the market price of raw material dissolution slurry continued to remain stable, the auxiliary material liquid alkali market continued to rise, the sulfuric acid market price rebounded after falling, the focus of raw material market prices increased, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers increased.

On the demand side: The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market is gradually increasing, and prices are being pushed up locally. The demand in the terminal market has not improved, and downstream yarn factories have resumed work one after another, mainly consuming raw material inventory, resulting in mediocre performance on the demand side.

Future forecast

On the raw material side, the market for adhesive short fiber main material dissolution slurry and auxiliary material sulfuric acid market or consolidation are the main markets, and there is an expectation of a decline in the price of liquid alkali market. Therefore, it is expected that the market price center of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will weaken. Supply and demand side: Most of the devices in the adhesive short fiber market are operating stably, and there is little fluctuation in on-site supply; The downstream yarn market or consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor, and the demand side is closely following. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, so it is expected that the driving force of the short-term adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be weak. Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may continue to maintain a stable trend, while the inventory level in the adhesive short fiber industry is not high. The downstream yarn market may still consume raw material inventory as the main source, and the trading activity in the market is average. Business analysis predicts that the domestic adhesive short fiber market for short fibers will not fluctuate much, with stability as the main factor, and prices are expected to be accepted at 13700-13850 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament yarn is expected to strengthen this week. On February 14th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7300-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8450-8600 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

At the beginning of this week, the polyester filament market showed a strong consolidation trend. The rise in the polyester raw material market has provided support for the market, with polyester fiber companies experiencing a slight increase in quotes and a narrow rise in market transaction volume. From mid week to the weekend, the polyester filament market remained stagnant and stable, with a relatively mild trading atmosphere and scattered trends. The market transaction volume fluctuated narrowly, resulting in light production and sales.

In terms of supply, the utilization rate of polyester filament production capacity in the early stage has increased to a high level of around 85%. Some devices in the industry are expected to restart, and there is a possibility of an overall increase in supply.

In terms of demand, although downstream processing industries have started production one after another, the overall recovery speed is relatively slow, and they are still in the early stage of consuming inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing polyester filament. At present, there are no obvious large-scale orders appearing, the market trading atmosphere is mild, and procurement actions are not significant.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of polyester filament POY/FDY/DTY reached 13.2/19.6/24.4 days respectively, which is at a relatively low level overall, but usually shows a trend of accumulated inventory after the holiday.

Overall, currently, the prices of polyester filament in most polyester factories remain largely unchanged, while some polyester factories have raised their prices for extinction products. The focus of DTY quotations is relatively weak, with sporadic price reductions in some factories. Business Society believes that the polyester filament market is running smoothly with limited fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has been operating at a high level recently. The mainstream price for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) is 18700-18800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price for domestic goods (PM200) is 18800-19000 yuan/ton. Recently, domestic facilities have been running smoothly, while there have been many overseas inspections, resulting in slow filling of supply sources. As prices rise, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere downstream, and actual transactions are limited. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate strongly in the short term, and we will closely monitor the changes in the future news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose after the Spring Festival. On February 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6660 yuan/ton, and on February 12th, the average price was 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.9% compared to the beginning of the month.

After the Spring Festival, the market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose. The rising market price of raw material acetone has boosted confidence in the isopropanol market. The manufacturer’s prices have continued to rise, and the intention of holders to lower their prices has weakened. The focus of offers has shifted upwards, and downstream inquiries are average. Actual orders are cautious. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6600-6700 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 6800-6950 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price has risen after the Spring Festival. On February 1st, the average price of acetone was 6097.5 yuan/ton, and on February 12th, the average price was 6292.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.2%. The domestic acetone market continues to rise, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is still good. It is expected that the acetone market will remain stable in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market fluctuated and rose after the Spring Festival. On February 1st, the market average was 6823.25 yuan/ton, and on February 12th, the average price was 6878.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81%. At present, the shipment of propylene has weakened, and market trading activity has declined. Downstream purchases are being made at lower prices according to demand. It is expected that the price of propylene will remain stable and weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the price of raw material acetone has risen after the holiday, providing strong cost support. The propylene market fluctuated and rose. The intention of holders to lower their prices has weakened, and the focus of their offers has shifted upwards. Downstream investors are mainly cautious and cautious in buying. It is expected that in the short term, the isopropanol market will mainly focus on consolidation and operation.