This week (11.9-11.15), the nickel price market has been falling all the way. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, spot nickel was reported at 124666 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.68%.

At present, the situation of oversupply in the market continues, coupled with the influence of macro factors, prices are under pressure and declining. The market transaction situation has weakened compared to the middle of the week, and the bearish and wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Users’ urgent needs can be sustained, but the degree of shipment is uneven.

Macroscopically, the election sentiment of the new US president has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and the end of the nickel price rally. Due to concerns about the impact of the incoming US president’s trade policies on the Chinese economy, a major consumer of metals, the London market fell across the board, affecting the continuous expansion of the domestic nickel price decline.

Supply side: Foreign inventory continues to grow, domestic inventory growth pressure has eased, and the market supply exceeds demand situation continues. As of November 15th, the quantity of Shanghai nickel goods that meet the delivery quality is 30472 tons, a decrease of 744 tons from last Friday; On November 15th, LME nickel inventory was 154434 tons, an increase of 4098 tons from last Friday.

On the demand side, stainless steel saw a slight decline during the week. On November 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the beginning of the month. Due to weak demand performance, the inventory decline narrowed, and merchants tended to ship at low prices. Downstream customers maintained price pressure and made on-demand purchases, resulting in overall weak trading.

Market forecast: Inventory pressure and price resistance still exist, and we expect macroeconomic factors to improve. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda stabilized on November 12th. On November 12th, the average price of caustic soda in the Shandong region was 1022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45% from November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and operating. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1020-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.

Since October, with the support of equipment maintenance and load reduction in the early stage of caustic soda production in the East China region, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in the region has increased. From the perspective of enterprise inventory, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low. Downstream demand is expected to see a stable, medium to strong trend in domestic alumina prices in the short term, with good demand for caustic soda, driving up caustic soda prices. However, looking at the Shandong region in November, the gradual restoration of maintenance facilities has led to a relatively abundant supply. And with the price increase, downstream caustic soda is resistant to caustic soda prices, and caustic soda prices tend to run steadily.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda maintenance companies are gradually resuming production, supply is becoming increasingly abundant, and downstream companies are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the price increase of caustic soda. Overall, it is expected that the operation will mainly focus on consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 1st to November 11th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12325 yuan/ton to 10937 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 11.26% during the period. This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market showed a weak trend, which had a weak impact on the spot market mentality. The downstream market had a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacked demand support. The butadiene market trend was weak this week, and Sinopec lowered it to 11000 yuan/ton. As of November 11th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region was 10900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1000 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.

Supply side: The comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much recently, and the comprehensive operating rate of butadiene has not changed much.

Demand side: Recently (11.1-11.11), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 15030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% from 15580 yuan/ton on November 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of November 11th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14850~15250 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak, and port cargo sources have continued to accumulate, resulting in loose market supply. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been generally weak in recent times. Overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 8th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12120 yuan/ton. Compared with November 3rd (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (11.3-11.8), the overall market price of domestic silicon metal # 441 showed a slight increase and then remained stable. At the beginning of the week, some regions in China saw an upward trend in the market for silicon metal # 441. The overall focus of negotiations for silicon metal # 441 has shifted upwards, with an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall stability of the silicon metal market remained dominant.

Market Price Trends of Metal Silicon

Brand number/ Region/ November 8th

#441./Tianjin area/ Around 11900~12100 yuan/ton

#441./Huangpu Port area/ Around 12000~12200 yuan/ton

#441./Kunming area/ Around 12200~12400 yuan/ton

#553 (oxygen supply)/ Kunming area/ Around 11700~11900 yuan/ton

#553 (without oxygen)/ Sichuan region/ Around 11200~11400 yuan/ton

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of metal silicon enterprises in northern China has not changed much, while the construction rate of metal silicon enterprises in southwestern China remains relatively weak.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply side of the silicon metal market has narrowed, and the phenomenon of accumulated inventory in the market has eased. The overall circulation of the silicon metal spot market is tight, and some silicon companies’ quotations are mainly firm. In terms of demand, currently, the downstream market for metallic silicon mainly focuses on on-demand procurement and small transactions.

In terms of inventory: According to incomplete statistics, on November 1st, the estimated social inventory of domestic silicon metal was 502000 tons. Compared with the previous week, the inventory increased by about 4000 tons, with the growth part coming from on-site factory inventory, an increase of 5000 tons, and a decrease of 1000 tons in delivery inventory.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is slightly light, and downstream users are cautious in purchasing, mainly based on orders and quantities. The overall supply and demand of the metal silicon market are weakly balanced. The metal silicon data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be paid more attention to.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market rose and then fell back in October, and the price levels of various brand products basically fell back to the beginning of the month. As of October 31st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7585.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the price level on October 1st.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, there was a significant surge during the National Day holiday, and the market was booming. But as consumption becomes increasingly weak, the market is turning into a weak pressure. At the end of the month, international crude oil futures fell sharply, and the upstream support of PP fell back. On the other hand, the contraction of propylene supply is favorable for the market, but with the gradual caution in chasing high consumption, there will be a slowdown in the increase at the end of the month accompanied by a narrow correction. Domestic supply of methanol has recovered in the early stage, but there is a lack of strong support on the supply and demand side, and prices are running at a stalemate. Previously, the price of propane was relatively stable due to internal low and external high pulling each other. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials fluctuated in October, with moderate support on the cost side.

Supply side:

Since October, the load level of domestic PP enterprises has been reduced due to the implementation of equipment maintenance plans by some enterprises. In the first half of the month, companies such as Guangzhou Petrochemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, and Daxie Petrochemical all had equipment maintenance plans. In the second half of the month, companies such as Jinergy Chemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical also had some equipment undergoing maintenance. The maintenance production lines were concentrated in the southern region of China, and the overall industry load fluctuated from 77% at the beginning of the month to around 76.5%. At present, the inventory of two barrels of PP oil in China is stable at around 765000 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous period. But the supply is still at a sufficient level. Overall, the supply side provides sufficient support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

The demand for PP has only slightly increased in October, and the load on end enterprises has slightly risen. The consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice continues to increase, while the storage capacity of plastic weaving enterprises generally decreases, and the willingness to build warehouses has increased. In terms of fiber materials, due to the cooling weather, downstream consumption of PP non-woven fabrics has also rebounded, which has to some extent boosted the demand for this type of PP material. However, with the improvement of macro commodity market sentiment and the exhaustion of positive factors, chasing high orders has returned to caution, and the market momentum has stopped heating up due to its impact. The demand side’s support for PP spot goods is not outstanding.

Future forecast

The domestic PP market price rose in October and then fell back. Fundamentally speaking, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP is average, and the demand side is slowly heating up. However, the increase in the first half of the month to some extent suppressed market trading in the second half, coupled with the weakening of the impact of loose funding policies and the negative impact of industry expansion in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the recent positive news is focused on the increase in e-commerce consumption, and it is expected that PP prices may be able to stabilize and enter a consolidation operation.