The price of isooctanol first fell and then rose in May
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the price of isooctanol was 7533.33 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 0.67% compared to the price of 7483.33 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 12th, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose by 4.87% to 7183.33 yuan/ton. In May, the price of isooctanol continued its volatile downward trend from April. Since mid May, China and the United States have started economic and trade talks, international trade tariffs have eased, and demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound. The price of isooctanol has hit the bottom and rebounded; The production capacity of isooctanol enterprises has increased, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. In addition, the demand recovery is not as expected, and the support for the price increase of isooctanol is limited.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices hit bottom and rebounded in May
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the DOP price was 8255.83 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 1.33% compared to the DOP price of 8147.50 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 11th, the DOP price of 7850 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 5.17%. The operating rate of DOP plasticizer enterprises is temporarily stable. With the economic and trade talks between China and the United States, tariff easing, the expected increase in demand for plasticizers, the increase in plasticizer production, and the expected rebound in demand for isooctanol, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, the increase in production of plasticizer enterprises has led to a rebound in demand for plasticizers, an increase in production of plasticizer enterprises, and a rebound in downstream demand for isooctanol; The production capacity of isooctanol enterprises has increased, with stable operation and sufficient supply of isooctanol. In the future, with sufficient supply and a rebound in demand, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will stabilize strongly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell and rose this week (5.26-5.30), with an average market price of 264520 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 251610 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.88%.
On the supply side, the overall supply situation of major tin ore supply areas such as Yunnan is becoming tight. As a result, some smelting enterprises may take measures to suspend production and maintenance in the future to cope with the shortage of raw materials. In terms of the market, there has been a particularly strong reaction to rumors that resuming production in the Wa region requires payment of relevant fees. At present, only a few enterprises have completed the payment procedures for mining certificates, and most enterprises are still adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most top mining traders have not taken any action. In addition, the current review measures at the China Myanmar border are relatively strict, and the entry procedures for large equipment and related mining personnel are cumbersome and complex, which further affects the resumption of production in the Wa region and prevents it from meeting market expectations.
On the demand side, the trading activity in the spot market has significantly increased recently. After the tin price experienced a sharp decline, some companies seized the opportunity to launch procurement actions. With the further decline in prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream and end enterprises has significantly increased, and they have made essential purchases according to actual needs and appropriately replenished inventory.
comprehensive analysis
In the downstream application field of tin, the market performance of tinplate and tin chemical industry is relatively average, while the increase in demand mainly comes from the largest proportion of tin solder materials. However, there are still hidden concerns on the demand side, that is, in the context of global trade conflicts, the global economic growth rate is facing the risk of decline, which brings great uncertainty to the demand for tin. Although the resumption of production in the mining sector and trade conflicts between major countries have had a negative impact on tin prices, the strong performance of the current actual demand side and the shortage of tin ore supply can still provide some support for tin prices.

Price Trend Review
In early May, macro sentiment rebounded and fundamentals suppressed alternately, causing fluctuations in nickel prices. On May 16th, it reached a monthly high of 126258 yuan/ton; In late May, the favorable macroeconomic policies failed to offset the pressure of weak fundamentals, and the center of gravity of nickel prices shifted downwards.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 29th, spot nickel was reported at 121758 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 2.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.63%.
Macro level: Policy boost has limited effect
Positive policies and short-term sentiment boost: China US trade breakthrough easing, significant tariff reduction (effective May 12th): Both sides cancel 91% tariffs, suspend 24%, and reduce remaining tariffs to 10%, directly easing cost pressures on export-oriented manufacturing. After the agreement came into effect, the booking volume of container transportation between China and the United States surged by 277% within 9 days, easing the export pressure of downstream nickel (stainless steel, battery materials) and improving market expectations for metal demand. Domestic financial policies are being strengthened: the central bank, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly released a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, increase expectations of loose liquidity, and boost sentiment in the industrial products market.
Marginal diminishing policy effects: In late May, the market’s optimistic sentiment towards the reduction of tariffs between China and the United States was completely digested, lacking new drivers. The central bank announced interest rate cuts and lowered deposit rates, but the credit demand of enterprises and residents was sluggish, the willingness of real consumption and investment was weak, the expectation of metal demand did not improve significantly, and the rebound of nickel prices was weak.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Indonesia’s nickel ore supply is tight: The rainy season in May affected nickel ore mining, coupled with the addition of a 1.5% nickel product royalty fee, which pushed up costs in the short term and put pressure on nickel iron prices.
Rumors of a ban on nickel ore exports from the Philippines: Market rumors suggest that the Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 (requiring congressional approval and a 5-year implementation cycle), which will stimulate bullish sentiment in the short term, but the actual supply impact is limited. At present, the rainy season in the Philippines has ended, shipping volume has rebounded, nickel ore prices have fallen, and the marginal cost support has weakened.
Excess inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 1176 tons per month (to 200142 tons); Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai has decreased by 2138 tons per month (to 22170 tons), and the pressure on domestic and foreign spot prices has slightly eased. The global surplus is still under pressure.

Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+weak demand for new energy
The confidence in the stainless steel industry is low: steel mills are under pressure on profits, production schedules have decreased month on month, and the off-season effect is evident. The accumulation of steel mills’ inventory has suppressed their willingness to purchase, and nickel demand has only maintained basic demand. On May 29th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 13175 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% from the beginning of the month.
New energy demand differentiation: The installation volume of ternary batteries has declined, with a month on month decrease of 7.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% in April, and the proportion has shrunk to 17.2%; The dominant position of lithium iron phosphate has been strengthened, with its proportion increasing to 82.8%, further squeezing the application space of nickel in power batteries. Export drag, the export of ternary precursors in April decreased by 67% year-on-year, and weak overseas demand constrained nickel consumption.
Market forecast: The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, there is a lack of bright spots in demand, the macro boost is weak, and there is no obvious upward driving force in fundamentals. The cost of nickel ore in Indonesia is rising, and support still exists. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations. Attention should be paid to Indonesia’s nickel ore export policy in June.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has been operating with narrow fluctuations recently, and there have been no new maintenance or restarts in the supply side recently. The port inventory is in the middle, and the supply side support is relatively strong. The raw material pure benzene is affected by macro and internal supply and demand factors, and the price remains stable at a low level, with weak support on the raw material side. Looking at the future, the profit of styrene has been restored, and some maintenance facilities have plans to restart in advance, leading to an increase in supply expectations. At the same time, there is a high possibility that the raw material pure benzene will remain weak. It is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market was consolidating and operating at the end of May, with most brand products experiencing narrow price adjustments. As of May 27th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7426.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.74% compared to the price level at the beginning of May.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
The positive impact of many positive signals such as the suspension of tariffs released during the mid May US China talks still exists, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the risk of crude oil supply has increased, and prices have remained firm. At the same time, the decoupling of domestic propane trade is expected to gradually be lifted, and the cost pressure on PDH manufacturing enterprises may decrease in the future, but the differentiation of demand will hinder the growth rate. There is a certain degree of loose supply in the propylene sector, coupled with the basic end of pre holiday stocking, resulting in price fluctuations and downward adjustments. Overall, at the end of May, the prices of various PP raw materials fluctuated, providing moderate support for PP costs.
Supply side:
At the end of May, the load of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with small fluctuations, and the market supply remained generally abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level remains almost unchanged from the mid month level of 77%, with an average weekly total output of approximately 750000 tons also stabilizing. The new production capacity of 1.4 million tons in the next quarter is approaching, and there is a clear expectation of loose supply in the future. The total domestic inventory continues to decline to below 820000 tons, but remains at a high level. Overall, there is still some suppression on the spot price of PP by the supply side.
In terms of demand:
At the end of May, the demand side of PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. The goods were basically ready before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the market remained weak and rigid. The consumption level of plastic weaving terminal enterprises has returned to the off-season level ahead of schedule. With the passing of the small peak in material usage, the release speed of PP demand in fields such as construction and agriculture has slowed down. The impact of the suspension of tariffs between China and the United States in the early stage has cooled down, and although the export resistance of downstream PP products in China has decreased, the export increment still needs time. At the same time, there is still supply pressure in the industry, and inventory still needs to be cleared, offsetting some positive factors. As the current holiday approaches, buyers are cautious in their purchasing operations to maintain production, leaning towards scattered small orders, and new market transactions are returning to a flat state. Overall, the performance of the PP demand side at the end of May was average.
Future forecast
At the end of May, the domestic PP market prices were consolidating and weak. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. The industry has abundant supply, inventory continues to be digested, and consumption has entered the off-season level. At present, the positive sentiment of macroeconomic policies is being digested, and the market is dominated by supply and demand, with businesses entering the end of month task completion and settlement range. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the new production situation in the industry.