Since mid November, the phenol market in mainstream regions across the country has been rising, with an average increase of around 300 yuan/ton. As of the 20th, the phenol market in East China has been quoted at 7900 yuan/ton. This upward trend is mainly due to the lack of replenishment of imported cargo, delayed arrival of domestic cargo at the port, and continuous shipment of goods. The market’s spot circulation resources are limited, and the average price within the month is high, which has boosted the sentiment of traders. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price on November 20th was 7887.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.54% since November.

The port inventory is low, and recently the inventory at Jiangyin Port has fluctuated between 10000 and 15000 tons. From the perspective of domestic trade, the average inventory arriving in Hengyang is 1 ship per week, so it is difficult to accumulate inventory in Hengyang. Changshu often directly connects with downstream production enterprises, with limited circulation, while Zhangjiagang has less inventory. After mid month, the shortage of spot resources and the high average contract price have become the main driving force for the upward trend.

The overall operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has declined. Sinopec Mitsui and Qingdao Bay facilities have temporarily shut down, with a production level of 70-80%. In addition, Shandong Fuyu phenol has not yet been circulating in the market, and there is not much pressure on spot supply, which has become a favorable factor supporting supply side price increases. In the later stage, by the end of November, Changchun Chemical, Qingdao Bay, and Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone plants will resume operation. The operating level of domestic phenol ketone plants is expected to gradually increase. Although the supply has increased, the restarted plants will also be mostly matched with downstream bisphenol A production. It is expected that the short-term impact on spot supply will not be significant.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7850 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7800-7850 yuan/ton. As of the 20th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

On the demand side, with the continuous rise of phenol, terminal enterprises are mainly driven by rigid demand and cautious in chasing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 8900-9100 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Business Society expects the phenol market to remain strong in the short term, with little pressure on spot supply. However, downstream companies are cautious about chasing high prices, and there is limited room for the market to continue rising.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been weak and adjusted since November. As of November 19th, the average market price in East China was 4797 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from the beginning of the month.

In terms of supply, PTA has started to accumulate inventory. According to statistics, the current social inventory is around 4.01 million tons, and maintenance facilities have been restarted one after another, increasing expectations of loose supply. The current industry operating rate is around 85%.

International crude oil prices have fallen sharply, providing downward support for PTA costs. As of November 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.17 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.30 per barrel. There is an expectation of further increase in PX supply in Asia, and the pressure on domestic PX inventory is rising. In recent years, negotiations for annual contracts have begun, and a cautious trading atmosphere is evident.

The current off-season for polyester demand has led to a decrease in rigid demand for PTA. With the end of the shopping festival, the terminal textile industry focuses on the urgent need for e-commerce orders, the clearance of raw fabric inventory, and the procurement of raw materials. Most manufacturers have reported that the order volume this year is lower than in previous years, and there is some support for domestic demand for thermal insulation fabrics. Considering the subsequent tariff issues for foreign trade orders, some orders are issued in advance but can only be processed on an average basis. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined to 76%.

Business analysts believe that with the end of the peak consumption season, demand will be weak in the future, and there is an expectation of weak supply and demand. Due to the weakening of cost support, it is expected that PTA prices will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 11th to 18th, MTBE prices rose from 5275 yuan/ton to 5412 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.61% during the cycle, remaining stable on a month on month basis and a year-on-year decrease of 16.89%. The price of MTBE in the domestic market has fluctuated and risen. As the delivery period of gasoline shipments approaches, the enthusiasm of industry players for purchasing relevant gasoline raw materials has significantly increased. MTBE manufacturers have followed suit and pushed up prices. Coupled with the gradual shutdown of some facilities, the favorable trend of reduced resource supply has begun to emerge, and MTBE prices have significantly increased.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, and the main negative factors are market concerns that Trump’s future policies will drag down the economy and demand, as well as push up US crude oil production, coupled with easing tensions in the Middle East. As of November 15th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.04 per barrel, a decrease of $1.52 or 2.1%.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, the temperature in northern regions is gradually decreasing, and the private car travel rate of the public is increasing. At the same time, there are still some gasoline ship orders supporting it, and industry players still have a certain degree of enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: The operating rate of the equipment has increased. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 15th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $3/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $680.99-682.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $2.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $797.49-797.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $11.48/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $754.82-755.18/ton (213.13-213.23 cents/gallon).

In the future forecast, the shutdown of some manufacturers in the early stage will still affect the recent production, and the short-term resource supply is still relatively tight. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to operate at a relatively high level in the short term.

This week (11.9-11.15), the nickel price market has been falling all the way. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, spot nickel was reported at 124666 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.68%.

At present, the situation of oversupply in the market continues, coupled with the influence of macro factors, prices are under pressure and declining. The market transaction situation has weakened compared to the middle of the week, and the bearish and wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Users’ urgent needs can be sustained, but the degree of shipment is uneven.

Macroscopically, the election sentiment of the new US president has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and the end of the nickel price rally. Due to concerns about the impact of the incoming US president’s trade policies on the Chinese economy, a major consumer of metals, the London market fell across the board, affecting the continuous expansion of the domestic nickel price decline.

Supply side: Foreign inventory continues to grow, domestic inventory growth pressure has eased, and the market supply exceeds demand situation continues. As of November 15th, the quantity of Shanghai nickel goods that meet the delivery quality is 30472 tons, a decrease of 744 tons from last Friday; On November 15th, LME nickel inventory was 154434 tons, an increase of 4098 tons from last Friday.

On the demand side, stainless steel saw a slight decline during the week. On November 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the beginning of the month. Due to weak demand performance, the inventory decline narrowed, and merchants tended to ship at low prices. Downstream customers maintained price pressure and made on-demand purchases, resulting in overall weak trading.

Market forecast: Inventory pressure and price resistance still exist, and we expect macroeconomic factors to improve. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda stabilized on November 12th. On November 12th, the average price of caustic soda in the Shandong region was 1022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45% from November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and operating. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1020-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.

Since October, with the support of equipment maintenance and load reduction in the early stage of caustic soda production in the East China region, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in the region has increased. From the perspective of enterprise inventory, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low. Downstream demand is expected to see a stable, medium to strong trend in domestic alumina prices in the short term, with good demand for caustic soda, driving up caustic soda prices. However, looking at the Shandong region in November, the gradual restoration of maintenance facilities has led to a relatively abundant supply. And with the price increase, downstream caustic soda is resistant to caustic soda prices, and caustic soda prices tend to run steadily.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda maintenance companies are gradually resuming production, supply is becoming increasingly abundant, and downstream companies are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the price increase of caustic soda. Overall, it is expected that the operation will mainly focus on consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.