Since November, there has been an increase in domestic supply, with over 10 million tons of PTA plants being restarted one after another, and the current industry operating rate is close to 90%. The new PTA production capacity of 2.7 million tons in the East China region is also about to be put into operation, and the PTA supply is still abundant, which is bearish on spot prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the average market price in East China was 4783 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the beginning of the month.

The easing of geopolitical issues in the Middle East and the slight decline in crude oil prices have slowed down the support for PTA costs. As of November 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.77 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.81 per barrel.

The downstream polyester end maintains high load, while the overall performance of the terminal textile is poor. Domestic autumn and winter orders are coming to an end, and the enthusiasm for raw material stocking is insufficient. The demand for foreign trade orders still exists, but it has narrowed compared to the same period last year.

Therefore, overall, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the PTA market lacks upward momentum, and the market may experience weak fluctuations and adjustments.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 26th, the average market price of soda ash was 1556 yuan/ton. Compared with the soda ash price of 1546 yuan/ton on November 20th, the price has increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the soda ash market has seen a slight increase. On the supply side, there are equipment shutdowns and maintenance on site, resulting in a slight decrease in the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity. In some areas, prices have slightly increased, but downstream demand is average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak, which provides insufficient support for soda ash. The price increase has been suppressed, and the overall soda ash market is stable with small fluctuations.

As of November 26th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with an increase of 30 yuan/ton within the week; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1380-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton within the week.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market is weak and declining. From November 20th to 26th, glass prices fell from 16.65 yuan/square meter to 16.40 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.50%. Some production lines in the glass market have resumed production, with an increase in operating rates and an increase in on-site inventory supply. Downstream follow-up is average, with a focus on entering the market according to demand. Overall, manufacturers have limited shipments, and the on-site mentality is bearish, resulting in a continued decline in glass prices.

Future forecast: Currently, there is little change in domestic soda ash production capacity, and the inventory of spot soda ash plants is still high. There is still pressure on enterprises to ship, and the downstream glass market continues to be weak, providing insufficient support for the soda ash market demand and limited market transactions. It is expected that soda ash will operate stably in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

Last week (November 18-24, 2024), the upstream main raw material market remained stable, with strong support from the cost side and low inventory levels in the market. Positive support from the supply side still exists, while downstream yarn factories have limited new orders and mostly purchase goods according to demand. Manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and with mixed news on the market, the price fluctuations in the adhesive short fiber market are not significant, and the market atmosphere is stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 24th, the domestic factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13820 yuan/ton, and the price continues to remain stable.

The focus of the raw material market remains stable, with good cost support

Last week (November 18-24, 2024), the market price of upstream main raw material dissolved pulp remained firm. As of November 24, the price of domestic dissolved pulp was around 7900 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved pulp was around 970 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp was around 1070 US dollars/ton. The price of auxiliary materials in the market is narrowly upward. As of now, the average price of 32% liquid caustic soda in China’s market is 1046.36 yuan/ton, which is roughly the same as the beginning of the month; The average market price of 98% acid is 359 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13% compared to the beginning of the month. Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market and auxiliary material liquid alkali market are consolidating at a high level, the sulfuric acid market is trending upwards, the price center of the raw material market has shifted upward, and the cost support of adhesive short fibers is good.

No inventory pressure

Last week (November 18-24, 2024), there was no significant fluctuation in the operating load of the adhesive short fiber market equipment, and the industry operating rate remained at around 85.8%. With orders from various manufacturers being delivered one after another, inventory levels continued to decline, and some models were under tight delivery. The supply side provided some upward momentum for the market.

Downstream demand

The downstream cotton yarn market mainly executes preliminary orders and operates with price consolidation. The demand in the terminal market has not improved significantly, and the downstream yarn market production capacity continues to increase. Although the demand for adhesive short fibers has increased, the shipment situation of yarn factories is not ideal, and prices lack upward momentum, making it difficult to provide certain favorable support for the adhesive short fiber market.

Future forecast

The upstream raw material market prices may remain firm and stable, with limited on-site supply and relatively stable cost support, resulting in low on-site inventory. The peak demand season in the terminal market has ended, and downstream yarn factories are facing a shortage of new orders, resulting in a low enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Yarn companies may focus on first-time purchases, so it is expected that the driving force for the adhesive short fiber market in the later stage will be average from the demand side. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will experience a slight consolidation in the short term, with prices expected to be between 13700-14000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 22nd, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6950-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8300-8700 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

International crude oil prices fell widely. On November 21st, WTI December crude oil futures closed down 0.52 US dollars, a decrease of nearly 0.75%, at 68.87 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for January closed down $0.50, down over 0.68%, at $72.81 per barrel.

With the end of the shopping festival, the terminal textile industry focuses on the urgent need for e-commerce orders, the clearance of raw fabric inventory, and the procurement of raw materials. Most manufacturers have reported that the order volume this year is lower than in previous years, and there is some support for domestic demand for thermal insulation fabrics. Considering the subsequent tariff issues for foreign trade orders, some orders are issued in advance but can only be processed on an average basis. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with few spot transactions and light production and sales of polyester filament.

Overall, there is no significant positive boost in the filament market, coupled with increasing supply pressure. It is expected that the polyester filament market will remain stagnant in the short term, with fluctuations ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has been operating strongly this week. Last Thursday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6660 yuan/ton, and this Thursday the average price is 6700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.6%.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market has been operating strongly. The acetone market for raw materials has risen, and cost support is still acceptable. The ex factory prices of the main factories have been raised, and the mentality of the holders is good, which has boosted the market and actively pushed up the price. Downstream inquiries are active, and actual orders are cautious. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. Most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton, while prices in South China are around 7050 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has increased this week. Last Thursday, the average price of acetone was 5837.5 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 5890 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.9%. At the beginning of the week, the port inventory dropped to 28500 tons, and some terminal factories tendered for replenishment. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the mentality of traders was boosted, resulting in an upward shift in offers.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fluctuated within the range this week. Last Thursday, the average price of propylene in China was 6770.75 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 6768.25 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.04%. At present, upstream factories are experiencing differentiated shipments, while downstream factories are purchasing at a lower discount. It is expected that the market will experience fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market is operating strongly this week. Acetone market prices have risen, propylene has fluctuated within the range, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream inquiries are active, procurement is cautious, and demand is the main focus. It is expected that the isopropanol market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.