Weak aluminum prices in December

Aluminum prices remained weak in December. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 19783.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.90% compared to the market average price of 20373.33 yuan/ton on December 1.

Reasons for the stabilization of aluminum prices at the end of December:

At the end of December, aluminum prices stopped falling and stabilized, mainly due to the combined effects of the following factors:

Firstly, after mid to late November, aluminum prices experienced a phased decline. Due to the influence of high priced raw materials, manufacturers of outsourced alumina had high costs and incurred losses, leading to an increase in the industry’s willingness to reduce production and raise prices;

Secondly, the Guinea factor has once again been disturbed, and concerns about transportation channels have raised expectations for the price of alumina, leading to an impulse for aluminum ingots to rise;

Thirdly, as the end of the year approaches and long-term negotiations for the coming year begin, the competition in the aluminum price market intensifies;

Fourthly, in December, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was depleted by 80000 tons, and the overall destocking was good.

In 2024, the profit of mainstream acrylonitrile production processes in China showed a trend of rising and then falling. In the first half of the year, the profit was basically positive, but in the second half of the year, the profit rapidly declined. The estimated average profit for the whole year is around -250 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 54.9%. In addition, the average annual production cost of mainstream acrylonitrile processes in 2024 is around 9550 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 433 yuan/ton. The decrease in raw material costs is one factor contributing to the recovery of acrylonitrile production profits, but the main reason comes from the temporary reduction in supply, which stimulates the rise in acrylonitrile prices.

During the first half of the year, the production profit of acrylonitrile increased significantly, with the highest single ton profit in April and May approaching 1500 yuan/ton. During this period, domestic production significantly decreased, and the supply-demand relationship improved, thereby stimulating a sharp rise in acrylonitrile prices and increasing profits. In addition, the profit of acrylonitrile production also improved in December at the end of the year, mainly due to the long-term low load operation of the East China plant and the temporary supply tightening, which stimulated the price of acrylonitrile to rise again. The highest profit point of acrylonitrile within the year also occurred in the first half of the year, with an average of 849 yuan/ton in April. However, the profit rapidly declined in the second half of the year, and the lowest point of the year occurred in August, at -1159 yuan/ton.

In 2024, the fluctuation of acrylonitrile plants in China increased due to fault factors, which affected some planned maintenance times and led to a temporary supply tightening situation under the background of overcapacity. In April, the capacity utilization rate dropped significantly to around 62%, mainly due to unexpected parking and concentrated load reduction. June and July entered the traditional off-season for demand, but due to the significant increase in acrylonitrile prices in the early stage, profit recovery stimulated the gradual recovery of factory production, resulting in a significant increase in capacity utilization in June and July. The fluctuation of production capacity utilization rate in the second half of the year has slowed down, but due to planned maintenance, combined with fault reduction and parking situations, the overall industry operation is still at a low level, which stimulates the price and profit of acrylonitrile to rebound again.

In 2024, there will still be overcapacity in domestic acrylonitrile production capacity, but there will be no new production capacity during the year. The number of production enterprises will remain at 16, and the concentration will still be high. The proportion of CR4 will still reach around 58%. Therefore, fluctuations in the equipment of individual enterprises, especially changes in the equipment of large factories in East China, will still have a direct impact on acrylonitrile supply.

However, in 2025, a new cycle of concentrated production capacity will be ushered in. It is expected that there will be five sets of acrylonitrile production capacity plans totaling 1.31 million tons in China. At that time, the number of domestic acrylonitrile production enterprises will also increase to 20, and the industry concentration will further decrease. At the same time, the impact of individual device fluctuations on market trends will also weaken.

According to the analysis data of the commodity market of Shengyi Society, as of December 27th, the average selling price of PET is 6130 yuan per ton, and the price trend shows a weak trend.

Since mid October, PET prices have continued to show a downward trend due to the dual impact of downstream demand reduction and declining raw material prices. Entering the fourth week of December, the support on the raw material side appears particularly weak. Although OPEC+has once again extended its oil production plan, the measures to reduce production have not offset market concerns about demand, and crude oil prices have not stopped falling. In addition, as the end of the month approaches, some holders are facing increased shipping pressure, while downstream enterprises have a low willingness to replenish, which further weakens the PET market prices amidst fluctuations. However, as market prices fall to lower levels, the room for further decline becomes relatively limited.

Looking ahead, starting from the end of December, with the increasing demand for Spring Festival stocking and the potential increase in operating rates in the oil and PET sheet industries, domestic PET demand is expected to see a slight increase. This trend may provide some support for the PET market. Therefore, in the subsequent market trends, we need to closely monitor the guidance of peripheral policies and the relevant news of subsequent devices. Meanwhile, changes in market demand will also become an important factor affecting the price of PET market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market experienced a slight decline today (December 26), with mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions generally lowering prices by 50 yuan/ton. The average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm was 7168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous trading day.

From the perspective of raw materials, geopolitical concerns, despite the unstable demand outlook, still limit the upward space due to the expectation of crude oil surplus. As of December 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.58 per barrel. PX factories mainly focus on maintaining normal production, with sufficient domestic PX spot supply and high inventory background unchanged. In addition, with the approaching Christmas holiday, participants’ cautious trading mentality has increased.

Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend, but the increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. As of December 25th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4831 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to December 18th. In terms of supply, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton PTA plant will undergo maintenance on December 12th, with an unspecified restart date. Dushan Energy’s new 2.7 million ton unit will start production on December 20th, and we will pay attention to the subsequent increase in load. From the perspective of the fourth quarter, there were not many overall maintenance of PTA plants, and the industry’s current operating rate is stable at around 86%, with an expected accumulation of inventory.

Downstream yarn factories mainly focus on stabilizing prices and shipping. Currently, the market price of pure polyester yarn T32S in Fujian is between 11300-11800 yuan/ton; The market price of pure polyester yarn T32S in Fujian is between 11300-11800 yuan/ton. Cotton mills have less inventory, and due to weak confidence in the future market in some downstream areas, the market transaction atmosphere is light, so they mainly adopt small order rigid demand procurement for short fibers. The overall demand is weak, and most downstream companies choose to stop work to reduce burden. The enthusiasm for starting work is low, and the operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined to below 67%.

Business analysts believe that the crude oil market continues to fluctuate, and with the production of qualified products from new PTA capacity, the PTA market will have sufficient supply in the future, with average cost support. Downstream demand remains high, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market lacks substantial positive drivers, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 825 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 826 yuan/ton on December 25th. The market price of ammonium sulfate has increased by 0.20% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased this month, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises remains high. In early December, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices fluctuated and fell. Downstream demand has weakened, purchasing intentions are not strong, market confidence is insufficient, and the transaction price of ammonium sulfate market has fallen. The international market for ammonium sulfate is mainly weak. In mid to late December, domestic ammonium sulfate prices showed a strong upward trend. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, with an increase in inquiries and market trading volume. The bidding price for coking grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased, while the price for domestic grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased. As of December 25th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 765 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-860 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from September 30, 2024 to December 16, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. The price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated in December, with the largest increase of 0.61% in the week of December 16th and the largest decrease of -0.8% in the week of December 2nd.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been stabilizing and consolidating recently. Downstream on-demand procurement, on-site trading is still acceptable, and market demand remains. There is currently no significant improvement in the export market. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience price consolidation in the short term.