In mid August, the domestic ABS market showed weak consolidation, with most spot prices of various grades stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 12050 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of+0.42% compared to the price level on August 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In mid August, the load of the domestic ABS industry increased slightly by 1.3% compared to the previous period, with an overall operating rate of around 67%. Previously, due to the decline in raw material prices, the profitability of the polymerization plant has slightly improved, and some enterprises have carried out operations to increase their load. During the interval, the load of Yihua Yilijin increased, while the load of Tianjin Dagu decreased and then rebounded. The total production during the ten day period increased slightly compared to the previous period. At the same time, the overall shipment situation of manufacturers is average, and inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices, and companies such as Jilin Petrochemical have plans to shut down in the future. In the short term, supply pressure may show narrow fluctuations and a generally stable pattern.

Cost factor: In mid August, the overall trend of ABS upstream materials was weak, which weakened the support for ABS cost side. The domestic acrylonitrile market price has been continuously declining for over three months, and there is still no clear sign of bottoming out. Supply exceeding demand is the fundamental factor leading to the decline in acrylonitrile prices. Due to the considerable profits from the co production of MMA products by some major acrylonitrile factories, it supports the maintenance of acrylonitrile plant production. The market supply side maintains a favorable performance, coupled with the sluggish upstream propylene market, many industry players are bearish on the future.

In mid August, the butadiene market experienced narrow fluctuations, and some companies in Shandong suspended their export plans within ten days, leading to a slight rebound in market offers in East China. However, some shipping schedules from East China will arrive at the port in the future, which may increase the pressure on supply. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is significantly weak, and synthetic rubber enterprises have been affected by the decline in profits and have always maintained the need to replenish inventory. At present, the supply and demand of the butadiene market are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a stable to weak trend in the short term.

The trend of styrene market consolidation in mid August. The price of pure benzene has fallen narrowly, with poor cost support. On the supply side, port inventory has increased, and downstream spot demand is in urgent need of goods, resulting in a general balance between supply and demand. However, there were many maintenance works on the styrene plant in the early stage, and there may be expectations of increased supply in the future resumption of work. It is expected that the styrene market will continue to operate steadily, and it is recommended to pay attention to the future supply situation.

In terms of demand: Since August, there has been no improvement in the main terminal demand for ABS. In the middle of the month, some home appliance manufacturers still maintain high temperature holidays, and the overall load position of downstream factories is relatively low. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the stocking operation is mainly based on weak demand. Traders follow the market and the flow of goods is relatively slow. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS price trend in mid August is expected to remain stable and weaken. Upstream material sorting is the main focus, with average cost support for ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plants in the interval remains stable with a slight increase, and the weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues. The market has not yet deviated from the off-season trend. The social inventory is rising, and the supply-demand contradiction has not eased. Overall, it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. On August 13th, the average market price was 799 yuan/ton, and on August 20th, the average market price was around 801 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.25% and a year-on-year increase of 4.43%. On August 19th, the chemical index was 864 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.29% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.48% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 760-840 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Jiangsu region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 840-920 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Inner Mongolia region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2200-2300 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali (converted to 100 yuan). This week, caustic soda will maintain a reasonable inventory, with downstream purchases mainly based on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 33rd week of 2024 (8.12-8.16), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-4.85%), PVC (-0.93%), and caustic soda (-0.75%). The average increase or decrease this week is -1.09%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and the inventory of caustic soda has remained stable. Downstream consumers are mainly cautious and watching, and the overall supply and demand game is expected to maintain the consolidation of caustic soda prices in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Last week (August 12-18), the nylon filament market temporarily stabilized and consolidated. There is currently no significant improvement in downstream demand, and manufacturers are following up on demand from multiple parties. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and businesses lack confidence in the future market. Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has increased, with good cost support but little change in cost support. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not significant. Overall, cost demand remains stable, and the price of nylon filament is generally stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament remained stable last week (August 12-18). As of August 18, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18640 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price. The price of nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is 16275 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

The trend of raw materials has slightly increased

Last week (August 12-18), the market fundamentals of nylon filament raw material caprolactam improved, with good cost support. The supply expectation is slightly tight, and downstream nylon PA6 production remains at a high level, with stable demand. The supply expectation of caprolactam is slightly tight, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will be slightly better organized in the later stage.

Supply demand

Last week (August 12-18), nylon manufacturers maintained stable operating loads and sufficient supply of goods. In August, it was the traditional off-season for textiles, and downstream demand was weak. The weaving start-up rate continued to decline, and downstream manufacturers continued to purchase according to demand, resulting in weak demand for nylon spinning.

Future forecast

The spot market for raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 is expected to be slightly better organized, with normal on-site supply and weak downstream demand. With the disappearance of high temperature weather, the trading atmosphere for nylon civilian silk may slightly rebound, but it will still be mainly based on on-demand purchasing. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the positive consolidation of raw materials, and prices will mainly fluctuate upward in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (8.9-8.16), with an average market price of 18033 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17933 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 0.55%.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the price of magnesium ingots reached a near May low, stabilizing and slightly weakening. The price has fallen to near the cost line, and manufacturers have a pro price mentality. Some magnesium factories have slightly reduced prices to promote transactions.

Supply and demand side

Insufficient driving force on the demand side, coupled with weak raw material prices, does not provide favorable support for magnesium prices. Confidence in the future market is clearly lacking, and magnesium prices continue to be under pressure.

In terms of raw materials

The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron has fallen compared to the middle of last week. Recently, the futures of ferrosilicon have fluctuated downwards, and the spot market has followed suit with a weak decline. Market transactions are light, and there is a downward pressure on downstream purchases. The actual transaction price of ferrosilicon has slightly loosened, and it is expected that the short-term ferrosilicon market may remain stagnant, with little possibility of a significant price adjustment.

The price of orchid charcoal in Fugu area remains stable, and mainstream manufacturers’ quotations have remained basically unchanged. It is expected that orchid charcoal will not rise in the short term and will continue to maintain a weak and stable trend.

Future forecast

At present, the downstream demand for magnesium ingots is poor, and only essential procurement is maintained downstream, resulting in a continued stalemate in market supply and demand. The short-term supply and demand pattern of the magnesium market is unlikely to change, and it is expected that the magnesium market will continue to maintain a weak and stable trend, with prices fluctuating narrowly in the low range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on August 12th was 2060 yuan/ton. On August 11th, the baking soda commodity index was 139.91, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.68% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 58.50% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1500-1600 yuan/ton. Due to poor downstream demand, it is expected to operate weakly in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1874 yuan/ton.

Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.