This week, the demand for acrylic acid in major downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries, etc. has not shown significant improvement. Affected by the global economic slowdown and weak demand in the terminal market, these industries have maintained low procurement volumes for acrylic acid, resulting in sustained pressure on the demand side of the acrylic acid market. As of March 11th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.65% compared to the beginning of this month (7700.00 yuan/ton).

The weak demand for acrylic acid in overseas markets, coupled with increased trade barriers and logistics costs, poses significant challenges to China’s acrylic acid exports. The export volume of acrylic acid continues to decline, further exacerbating the oversupply in the domestic market.

In recent years, the acrylic acid industry has experienced rapid capacity expansion, leading to a significant increase in market supply. Although some manufacturers have chosen to lower their operating rates due to profit pressure, overall production capacity is still surplus, and market supply pressure remains significant.

Due to sluggish demand and oversupply, inventory in the acrylic acid market continues to rise. Market inventory remains at a high level, putting significant pressure on market prices.

This week, the prices of major raw materials such as propylene for acrylic acid have risen, leading to an increase in the production cost of acrylic acid. However, due to weak market demand, the price of acrylic acid did not rise as a result, but continued to decline due to oversupply. As of March 11th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6920.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.58% compared to the beginning of this month (6813.25 yuan/ton).

The fluctuation of energy prices also has a certain impact on the production cost of acrylic acid. The international oil prices and other energy prices fluctuate greatly, but overall they are on a downward trend, which puts certain pressure on the price of acrylic acid in the market.

Due to factors such as sustained weak demand, oversupply, and weakened cost support, the acrylic acid market sentiment this week is generally pessimistic. Market participants hold a cautious attitude towards the future market, with most choosing to wait and see or purchase on demand, leading to a continued decline in market prices.

Looking ahead, the acrylic acid market will still face significant challenges. On the one hand, the recovery of the demand side still takes time, and the uncertainty of the global economic situation and terminal market demand will continue to affect the trend of the acrylic acid market; On the other hand, pressure on the supply side will continue to exist, with capacity expansion and high inventory levels continuing to exert pressure on market prices. Therefore, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue its downward trend in the short term, but the long-term trend still needs to pay attention to the global economic situation, downstream demand changes, and supply side adjustments.

In summary, the acrylic acid market continued its downward trend this week, mainly influenced by factors such as sustained weak demand, significant supply pressure, weakened cost support, and pessimistic market sentiment. The future market trend still needs to pay attention to changes in various factors.

Due to weakened costs and insufficient demand, the domestic PTA market has maintained a fluctuating downward trend since March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 16.92%.

Looking at the future market, on the supply side, PTA spot processing fees continued to weaken by the end of 2024, and remained at a low level around 300 yuan/ton at the beginning of this year. The profit gap of the enterprise has led to an increase in maintenance enthusiasm. There were many PTA plant maintenance in March, and as of March 10th, the industry’s operating rate was at a one-year low of 77%. According to statistics, the domestic PTA production capacity for maintenance and planned maintenance in March was 10.15 million tons.

The escalation of trade frictions has led to a larger than expected increase in US crude oil inventories. Investors are concerned that OPEC+will decide to increase production starting in April, causing international crude oil prices to remain weak. As of March 7th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $67.04 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $70.36 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the destocking of US crude oil and the disturbance of the situation in the Middle East.

In terms of demand, downstream polyester plants will restart, resulting in a narrow increase in operating load, which will increase the demand for PTA. At the same time, the new polyester production capacity put into operation in the early stage will realize the output, and the demand for PTA will also increase. Most textile terminal production enterprises have expressed that the issuance of new orders is still slow and lack confidence in the future market. The space for further increase in weaving end elasticity and weaving start-up rate is limited. Currently, the weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 67%, and insufficient orders may lead to a subsequent decline in start-up rate.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA maintenance efforts are significant and coupled with the expectation of a rebound in demand for “gold, silver, and four”, it is expected that PTA destocking in March and April may boost market confidence. But we still need to pay attention to changes in crude oil and demand.

This week (March 3-7, 2025), the market trend for the main raw material of viscose staple fiber, dissolved pulp, was weak, and the recovery of demand in the terminal market was not as expected. Downstream yarn factories mainly executed previous orders, and new prices for viscose staple fiber manufacturers were introduced. The actual focus of negotiations in the market did not fluctuate much, and the viscose staple fiber market operated weakly, with prices slightly lowered.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.87%.

The trend of the main raw material dissolution slurry market is downward

This week (March 3-7, 2025), the upstream main raw material dissolution pulp market experienced a weak decline. As of March 7, the price of domestically produced dissolution pulp was around 7600 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp was around 930 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp was around 1030 US dollars/ton. The prices of auxiliary materials in the market are all on the rise, with an average price of 1071.61 yuan/ton for 32% liquid caustic soda in the domestic market, an increase of 1.05% compared to the beginning of the month. Overall, the trend of the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market is downward, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market and sulfuric acid market continue to rise in price. The price center of the raw material market is declining, and the cost support of adhesive short fibers is weak.

Good supply and demand are hard to find

This week (March 3-7, 2025), some adhesive short fiber parking and maintenance facilities in Jiangsu have not yet restarted, while some adhesive short fiber facilities in Shandong and Xinjiang have increased their operating loads, resulting in a gradual increase in on-site supply; Downstream yarn manufacturers resumed work relatively late, coupled with poor shipments, resulting in low enthusiasm for picking up adhesive short fibers. The overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market has increased narrowly, and the support from the supply side is limited.

The downstream cotton yarn market equipment has basically resumed normal operation, with little price change. As of now, the price of ring spun human cotton yarn 30S in Jiangsu region is around 17500 yuan/ton. However, due to insufficient orders in the terminal market, the shipment situation of yarn factories is not ideal, and there is still a certain amount of raw material inventory and finished product inventory, resulting in a weak willingness to purchase adhesive short fibers, and it is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side.

Future forecast

From a cost perspective, the main material dissolution slurry market is dominated by consolidation; From the perspective of supply and demand, there are plans to increase the operating rate of some adhesive short fiber facilities in Jiangsu Province. The on-site supply may increase slightly, and the industry inventory may remain at a normal level. The downstream market or consumption of raw material inventory is the main focus, and there has been no significant improvement on the demand side. Overall, the market lacks good news to boost it. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market price will not change much in the short term, and the price is expected to be accepted at 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on March 6th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 11110 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 11180 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall weak downward trend. During the week, the spot market prices of metal silicon grades 553 #, 521 #, 441 #, 421 #, 3303 # in many regions including East China, Kunming, Tianjin, Shanghai, etc. have been adjusted downwards to varying degrees, with a reduction of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of March 6th, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 10900~11200 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 11000~11200 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is around 10900~11000 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is around 11400~11500 yuan/ton.

analysis of influencing factors

In terms of supply and demand: This week, the overall demand performance of the silicon metal market remains sluggish, and downstream users are cautious about replenishing raw materials. Some silicon companies in the southwest region have stated that the resumption of work and production during this year’s flood season has not yet been determined, and the overall supply has slightly increased, mainly from northern silicon plants. The transmission between supply and demand is slow.

In terms of raw materials: This week, the performance of the silica market is temporarily stable, and downstream metal silicon has average demand for raw material silica, with market consolidation being the main focus. This week, the silicon coal market experienced a downward trend, affected by the decline in the coke market, resulting in a weak decline in the silicon coal market and loosening the cost support for metallic silicon.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light, and downstream demand is still gradually recovering. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly be weak and stable, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton on February 1st, and 6760 yuan/ton on February 28th. The price of thermal phosphoric acid in China has increased by 1.20% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7100 yuan/ton on February 1st, and 7133 yuan/ton on February 28th. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China has increased by 0.47% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market has fluctuated and risen slightly this month. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus has weakened, and cost support has weakened. But the market demand is still acceptable, downstream purchases are made on demand. Stable trading. As of February 28th, the ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6550-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6700-7200 yuan/ton.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price of yellow phosphorus increased slightly. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers are mainly raising prices, the market supply is tightening, demand is stable, and there is support on the supply and demand side. In the second half of this month, the price of yellow phosphorus began to decline. The market supply is loose, downstream demand for replenishment is high, and purchasing intentions are low, resulting in many low-priced transactions.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been consolidating and operating recently. Raw material yellow phosphorus manufacturers are mainly raising prices, and there are signs of an upward trend in the market. The phosphoric acid market remains on the sidelines, with a balanced supply and demand. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term.